Start Em Sit Em Week 16 – Fantasy Football Start of the Week

Welcome to another edition of our weekly fantasy football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em. In this series, we’re here to help you set your lineups and put yourself in a position to win your fantasy football matchups each week. With the fantasy football playoffs in full swing, it’s time to take a look at Week 16 of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season.

Furthermore, these players will be those “less-obvious” players that you’re on the fence about starting as your WR3 or Flex type of options. Nobody needs to tell you to start Patrick Mahomes or Christian McCaffrey.

Week 16 Starts

*Start Percentage, Via Sleeper 12/21/23

Baker Mayfield (QB)

49% Started

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, it’s Week 16 and we’re talking about Baker Mayfield. After his biggest performance ever, Mayfield has earned the privilege to be in this conversation. The Buccaneers are leading the division as visions of the playoffs dance in their heads. Facing the Jaguars couldn’t come at a better time for them, either. Before Week 15, the Jaguars surrendered more than 300 passing yards in three straight games. They also allowed six passing scores and two rushing scores to quarterbacks in those games. I think we’ve got one more good week coming from Mayfield this week.

Tommy DeVito (QB)

18%

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have looked bad the past few weeks. They have especially looked bad on defense and against the pass. They looked bad enough that they “relieved” Sean Desai of playcalling duties and promoted Matt Patricia. However, this has not been a few-week issue, the Eagles’ passing defense has not been good almost all season. They are currently allowing 21 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and let Drew Lock put up over 200 yards passing and a touchdown. All in all, I’m not expecting DeVito to be a world-beater here, but I do expect a serviceable 200+ yards and two-touchdown performance.

Roschon Johnson (RB)

15%

Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals

Another week and another challenging week for any team playing against the Cleveland Browns defense. The Bears’ offense could hardly muster anything. However, one thing was clear, Roschon Johnson was the preferred back in this three-headed backfield. He saw 50% of the snaps and saw action both in the passing and rushing game. Seeing that kind of usage against a weaker defense, Johnson is going to perform well.

Now for Week 16, enter the Cardinals defense who are giving up nearly 30 points per game to opposing running backs. The Bears should lean heavily into the run game this week and Johnson should be the beneficiary.

Kyren Williams (RB)

89%

Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints

This goes without saying, but Kyren Williams is pushing people into fantasy championships. He’s totaled at least 106 scrimmage yards in each of his four games since returning, with two games over 150 yards and one over 200 yards.

Even in a tough matchup with New Orleans, there’s little worry to be had. Since their Week 11 bye and before knocking down the Giants, opposing running backs were churning up 159.7 rushing yards per game. Also in that span, every running back with at least 10 carries has scored or racked up at least 60 rushing yards with three of them going for at least 74 yards.

Williams is probably a huge reason your team has made it this far. There’s a reason he’s started in so many leagues, but there’s absolutely no reason to bench him at this point. Ignore the perceived bad matchup in Week 16 and enjoy another victory!

Calvin Ridley (WR)

77%

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Those of us who put high stock into Calvin Ridley this season have suffered a rough terrain. However, in Weeks 11 and 12, he gave us hope with 210 combined yards and three scores. In the last two weeks, he had 13 and 12 targets, so there are signs that we could see one last fantasy burst any day now.

Going into Tampa Bay is just what the doctor ordered. In the last five games, Tampa Bay has given up six receiving touchdowns and allowed five different pass catchers to tally at least 89 receiving yards. The only game in that span where neither happened was the Panthers in Week 13.
The stars seem to be coming into alignment for Ridley this week. Increased opportunity and a soft defense make for a bountiful fantasy day.

Gabe Davis (WR)

36%

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers

Well, this is a risky bet here as Gabe Davis has barely even shown up to the games lately. Davis has been held catches in the last two games and three of the last four. He’s had one of the worst seasons you can imagine for a player coming off his rookie deal and going into free agency. However, opportunities have been there lately, but Josh Allen and Davis have just not been able to connect.

This dam is going to break soon and Davis is going to show up in a big way. I’m putting my money on this week against the Chargers who are giving up nearly 40 points per game to wide receivers. After a run-heavy week last week, I’m expecting a ton of Allen fireworks this week and all the Bills receivers will eat. If you are in a pinch, don’t be afraid to start Davis as a Flex option.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

41%

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

There is this whole injury-risky play business with Pay Freiermuth this week, but oh do I hope he plays. A few short weeks ago Freiermuth had a monster game against this same Bengals team, hauling in nine receptions for 120 yards. The only thing that would have made it better is a touchdown! The Bengals have been light against the tight ends all season, giving up nearly 17 points per game to the position. If he plays, I expect him to be the primary target and have another monster game. If he does not play, look to Juwan Johnson with the Saints.

Darren Waller (TE)

29%

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Darren Waller finally returned after a five-week hiatus. In his first game back, he grabbed four of six targets for 40 yards. Nothing amazing, just a decent stat line that shows the Giants are putting him right back on the field. Before getting hurt in Week 8, Waller had a three-game stretch where he hauled in 20 passes for 227 yards. There may have been a different quarterback at the helm, but Waller is still the best pass catcher on the team and should, again, be featured by Tommy DeVito, as well.

We’ve seen the hosting Eagles get wrecked by opposing air attacks all season and there’s no reason to assume that will stop. In the last four weeks, seven different players have surpassed 65 receiving yards. Five of those players also scored in those games. We know to start receivers against Philadelphia this season, but Waller gets an extra ‘thumbs up’ from me.

Week 16 Sits

Jordan Love (QB)

62%

Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers

Jordan Love may have won you a few matchups the last few weeks, as he has put together a few decent performances. Other than a meh performance against the Giants two weeks ago, Love has been good for 250+ yards and two touchdowns over the last few weeks. However, he’s about due for a stinker. While the Panthers have not been good at much of anything this season, they have been decent against the pass and they are in the top five in D-PAC at 3.47 and only allowing 12 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. I’m expecting a Love stinker game against a strong Panthers defense.

Jake Browning (QB)

43%

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

A very fired-up Jake Browning put on a second-half show against Minnesota this past week. In his last three games, he’s scored seven times (five passing, two rushing) and averaged 317.7 passing yards.

Unfortunately, there are two significant factors this coming week that should cause us to pause. Most notably, the lack of having Ja’Marr Chase on the field is not ideal. Even with less than five receptions in three of the past four games, Chase’s presence on the field commands that teams pay attention to him. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd will have to step up, but will it be enough?

Secondly, the Steelers are still a formidable passing defense. They cause chaos in the pocket and they kept Cincinnati to one touchdown the last time they battled. The only Bengal to achieve more than 45 receiving yards in that game was Chase. Then there’ll also be another change under center, further limiting what we should expect the offense to achieve.

Some fantasy managers are going to look at past success and feel like Browning is worth a shot. Don’t let yourself get this far just to falter from a bad quarterback performance.

Alexander Mattison (RB)

22%

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

With more struggles this season than a football has laces, Alexander Mattison has had a rough go of things in 2023. He hasn’t scored since Week 9 and hasn’t notched a rushing touchdown since January 8th. With the explosive play by Ty Chandler this past week, the number of touches for Mattison is sure to take a hit. Add to that a Detroit defense that has allowed one running back to beat 50 rushing yards in the last five games (Alvin Kamara, 51 yards on 14 carries) and the only D-PAC Score under 3 points for running backs and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.

All Colts RBs

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons

I know what you might be thinking, “But what if Jonathan Taylor plays” and I would be right there with you, but I’m still kind of leaning towards just avoiding the entire Colts backfield. It doesn’t seem to matter who is running the ball in this Colts offense, but they still produce. However, last week with both Zack Moss and Taylor being out, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson looked serviceable.

If Taylor and Moss are deemed healthy enough to play, I fully expect Goodson to go back to the practice squad, but I also fully expect Sermon, Moss, and Taylor to see playing time and no one gets a significant share of the touches. They are also facing a Falcons defense that is only allowing 16 points per game to opposing running backs. This is a tough matchup with a tough roster, I would stay away.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR)

93%

San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Since the 49ers’ Week 9 bye, Brandon Aiyuk has been a very solid fantasy option for the most part. However, he has failed to eclipse 55 receiving yards in four of those six games, needing a touchdown in three of those four games to provide a valuable fantasy day. He had also been fortunate enough to have five straight games against defenses allowing more than 35 fantasy points per game to wide receivers with the lowest D-PAC Score of 9.94 belonging to Jacksonville.

Benching a guy like Aiyuk is never easy, but there are times when it is necessary for your squad’s continued existence in the fantasy football playoffs. However, this just might be one of those times.

Noah Brown (WR)

25%

Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns

With all the injuries last week, and in a weird game, Noah Brown came up big against the Titans with eight receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown. That was with CJ Stroud out and Case Keenum throwing the passes. It is looking like Case Keenum might be starting again this week with Stroud still in the middle of the concussion protocol. The big difference this week is they are facing a much stronger defense in the Cleveland Browns who only allow 26 points per game to wide receivers. This is going to be a tough matchup with the playoffs on the line and I expect Houston to not fair well and miss Stroud a lot.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

41%

Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns

As I predicted, Dalton Schultz had a decent game last week with four receptions for 58 yards. This week I expect a down week for much of the same reasons mentioned before for Noah Brown. Case Keenum at quarterback and facing a much stronger defense. Browns are only allowing eight points per game to tight ends and are going to cause havoc to this Keenum-led Texans offense. Not many points to be had here.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

69%

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins

I’ve been a platinum rider on the Jake Ferguson hype train all season. He’s getting valuable targets, nice yardage numbers, and more touchdowns than most folks expected. However, I’m getting off before the next stop because I think someone left some loose change on the tracks.
Miami has been giving fits to tight ends since their Week 10 bye. No tight end has scored or reached 50 yards in those five games and three of the five tight ends with at least four receptions in that stretch have been held to 33 receiving yards or fewer.

Ferguson has been a fun fantasy companion for many managers this season. All good things come to an end, however. We’ll always have the fond memories, like his 12 catches for 163 yards and a score in two games against Philadelphia.

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