Start or Sit Faceoff: Week 1
It’s Week 1, so first and foremost, don’t get too cute with your lineups. You probably just drafted your team recently and you should have a pretty solid starting lineup. This isn’t really the time to tinker too much with your lineup. However, there have been some injuries popping up, and some matchups this week might be too juicy to miss out on. The start or sit column is a mainstay on just about every fantasy football site out there. We are going to try to take a slightly different FF Faceoff twist on this article. Each week Benjamin (@FFRabbitDad) and (@obryanbren) are going to select a few starts or sits and debate on how we might agree or disagree with those picks. Here’s the first of the series in Start or Sit Faceoff: Week 1.
We are basing many of our decisions on these picks from Defensive Points Against Consistency Score (D-PAC). This metric shows you how many points each defense allowed to each position group. If you have any questions in your lineup each week, this would be a good metric to use to figure out who to start based upon their weekly matchup. Keep in mind, this is all based upon the 2020 season data right now, so each defense might (and probably is) better or worse and these numbers will change as we start playing games. Take these with a grain of salt, but without further ado, here are our starts and sits for Week 1.
Quarterbacks
Start: Jalen Hurts – Trevor Lawrence
Brendan: The quarterback I would start on my roster this week would be Jalen Hurts. In his minimal starts last year, and with limited talent around him, Hurts showed he has some potential to be starting fantasy material. After a full offseason under his belt, and the addition of playmakers, Hurts is going to put up good numbers. He’s also playing against the Falcons defense that allowed 22.87 points to quarterbacks last season and the 9th most points in the league to opposing quarterbacks running the ball. Due to the NFL experience, better playmakers around him, and the favorable matchup, I would start Hurts over Trevor Lawrence this week.
Benjamin: Give me Lawrence all day on this one. Sure, you never really know what you’re going to get from a rookie quarterback in his debut, but Lawrence is a special guy. A generational talent with some very promising receivers in Marvin Jones, DJ Chark, and Laviska Shenault going up against a Houston defense that allowed a quarterback rating (QBR) of 109.6, a league-worst completion percentage of 69.7% with only three interceptions in 2020. He’s not the scrambler that we’ve seen in Hurts, but he’s no statue, either. Hurts’ small amount of NFL experience doesn’t do much for me as he was never really consistent in his four starts with a completion percentage of only 51.9% and two games with fewer than 170 passing yards. With an extremely favorable matchup, I’ll take the 1st overall pick in Week 1.
Sit: Tua Tagovailoa – Derek Carr
Brendan: From what Tua Tagovailoa showed in the 2020 season, I cannot trust him enough to start him in any situation especially against a defense that was dominant against opposing quarterbacks last season. The Patriots only allowed 16.61 points per game to quarterbacks and this is before getting players back from injuries, COVID-19 opt-outs, and the addition of playmakers in free agency. He started out decently in 2020, but NFL defenses quickly figured him out and had underwhelming fantasy production for a rushing quarterback. I would take the wait-and-see approach to Tagovailoa in 2021. If my choices were Derek Carr or Tagovailoa, Carr would be starting this week. Carr has shown he can put up big numbers, while Tua has not.
Benjamin: If the Dolphins didn’t have faith in their sophomore signal-caller, they would’ve kept the third overall 2021 draft pick and made their move for the future. That tells me, Tagovailoa has the ability to lead his team. He’s a good scrambler and in his previous game against the Patriots (who he’ll face this Sunday) he completed 76.92% of his passing attempts. Carr, on the other hand, is not a mobile quarterback and slowed down significantly at the end of 2020. Through Carr’s first four games, he had a completion percentage of 73.6% and no interceptions. In his last four full starts of 2020, his percentage fell to 63.4% and he threw five picks. These quarterbacks both have tough matchups, but I’ll leave Carr on the bench this week.
Running Backs
Start: James Robinson – Mike Davis
Brendan: What’s not to like in James Robinson? He’s coming off a huge 2020 season and is the clear-cut RB1 in the Jacksonville offense. With Travis Etienne being put on IR, Robinson will be getting the majority of the touches running the ball and receiving. In comes a Texans defense that allowed a league-worst 32.1 points per game to opposing running backs in 2020. Mike Davis also has a very favorable matchup with the Eagles, but he’s also in a crowded backfield and could end up sharing more of the workload than fantasy managers realize. Robinson is a must-start and will produce big numbers this week.
Benjamin: I fully appreciate what Robinson did for quick-thinking fantasy managers in 2020. 1,414 total yards and 10 touchdowns on 4.89 yards per touch. What I don’t appreciate (but understand) is that the Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne to take over a noteworthy role in the ground game. Even with Etienne out for the season, veteran Carlos Hyde is still there to be a nuisance for fantasy teams that bought in on Robinson this year. Davis, however, has little competition for touches in week one with Cordarrelle Patterson as the second running back on the team and Wayne Gallman still digesting a new playbook. What gets me excited about Davis’ game is his pass-catching chops as he caught 30 of 33 targets in weeks two through five on top of a respectable 4.3 YPC. If it were later in the season, I’d probably go with Robinson. It’s Week 1, so I’m choosing Davis here.
Sit: D’Andre Swift – Myles Gaskin
Brendan: D’Andre Swift was off the offseason sweetheart in the fantasy world and for good reason. He had a few good games in 2020 to end the season, and the Lions offense is going to be run-heavy. However, as of the last few weeks, his value has been coming back down to earth a little. He’s been nicked up for a good portion of the off-season and Jamaal Williams is going to get a decent share of the workload. His matchup this week is also not that favorable as the Lions are up against the 49ers. The 49ers were missing quite a few pieces last year and still only allowed 20.31 per game to running backs. Myles Gaskin, on the other hand, has a semi-favorable matchup and will be the bell-cow running back in the Dolphins’ system. For the uncertainty alone, I would bench Swift over Gaskin in Week 1.
Benjamin: I’ll keep this simple. Outside of Tagovailoa having to scramble for his life, there is going to be little groundwork for Miami against New England’s stalwart rebirth on defense. With a less-than-ideal 4.11 YPC in 2020, Gaskin doesn’t quite compare to Swift’s 4.57 YPC. The script in Week 1 will more quickly change to a passing offense, effectively limiting opportunities in favor of pass-catchers like Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker. With Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed, I don’t think Gaskin will be the bell-cow we were hoping for in 2021, let alone Week 1. Swift’s opportunities won’t be as limited by Jamaal Williams who is more of a 3rd down presence instead of a change-of-pace back. Have a seat, Gaskin.
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
Wide Receivers
Start: Brandin Cooks – Deebo Samuel
Brendan: In the thought of who is actually going to catch passes from Tyrod Taylor, Brandin Cooks has to be your guy. There are hardly any other weapons on this offense, and Cooks should demand a large target share. Combine that with an amazing matchup against a Jaguars defense that allowed 39.14 points per game to wide receivers and Cooks himself had a combined 47.4 fantasy points in two matchups against them. Deebo Samuel also has a favorable matchup and would be a decent start, but the number of targets Cooks is going to see makes him the start in my book.
Benjamin: Let me start by saying that I have this exact choice to make in multiple leagues because I am very high on both of these players. Cooks is a multi-year 1,000+ yards receiver and coach Kyle Shannahan has specific plays tailored for Samuel’s explosive abilities. I’m usually not one for coach-speak, but when the Texans say they are going to focus on the running game this close to the season, I have to take note. Samuel won’t be scripted out just because the team is ahead on the scoreboard as he can excel in the short and deep game. The Texans may very well command their matchup against the Jaguars and rely on the running game to control the clock. Samuel gets my nod over Cooks this week.
Sit: Allen Robinson II – Tee Higgins
Brendan: Allen Robinson is quite the questionable sit in Week 1. You probably drafted him quite high, and sitting him would hurt a lot (depending on who you have sitting on your bench). Even after reading this article, I bet you are still going to start him since it is Week 1. That’s fine, however, he has a matchup nightmare this week with Jalen Ramsey and the Rams defense that allowed a league-low 24.89 points to wide receivers last year. He also has some questionable quarterback play, with not knowing when Andy Dalton might get benched. Tee Higgins however has a much more favorable matchup and is potentially a WR1 in the Bengals offense. If I had the choice of starting either Higgins or Robinson, I would be benching Robinson. He’ll still be a low-end WR2 for me, but there are some better options.
Benjamin: Based on where you (probably) drafted Robinson, you’re going to start him. On top of that, he is the clear WR1 option for the Chicago passing game. Higgins may not be the clear WR1 for Cincinnati as he has to compete with Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd for targets. This is also made clear by the number of games with over 80 yards receiving, eight for Robinson and three for Higgins last season. Robinson is my start here while Higgins is riding the pine.
Tight Ends
Start: Tyler Higbee – Dallas Goedert
Brendan: Tyler Higbee was a guilty pleasure of mine in many of my drafts this year. I could get him in a late-round and know he was going to produce in this Rams offense. Higbee is the clear-cut number one tight end in this offense this year and is uber-talented. He is also matched up against the Bears defense that gave up 15.41 points to opposing tight ends last year. In a tight end challenged league, I would take 15 points from my tight end any day. Dallas Goedert, while also seeing a favorable matchup and will see his touches, is also still competing with Zach Ertz for touches. Higbee is the clear-cut start here over Goedert.
Benjamin: Higbee has one (or three) major hurdle(s) keeping him from being a fantasy darling. He’s the fourth man in the pecking order, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods have multiple years where they have shown to be effective and often-targeted receivers for the Rams, and Darrell Henderson is no slouch when it comes to pass-catching. Goedert doesn’t have that issue as he and Zach Ertz are the two best pass catchers for the Eagles as we haven’t seen what DeVonta Smith can do in the NFL and the jury is still out on Jalen Reagor. In 2020, Goedert saw at least six targets in eight of his 11 games played. Higbee saw six targets in three games and never more than that number in 2020. Reportedly, Ertz is back on the Philadelphia bandwagon, but that would still make Goedert the second passing option, at worst. It’s Goedert for me, no doubt.
Sit: Dawson Knox – Anthony Firkser
Brendan: Forewarning, I am a Buffalo Bills stan and I have to admit, I drafted Dawson Knox in a few of my leagues. I believe he has some high upside and showed a lot of improvement and chemistry with Josh Allen in the offseason. However, he’s going to be highly challenged to get touches in this offense with how many talented weapons they have. Much like a few of the players on my list, I continue to take the wait-and-see approach to Knox’s production in 2021. He’s also facing a Steeler offense that allowed a league-low 8.59 points per game to tight ends in 2020. Knox will have some matchups this year where he will be a good streaming option, but this is not that matchup. Anthony Firkser, on the other hand, has a slightly more favorable matchup. He does have question marks around his usage, but if Jonuu Smith’s production is any barometer on what Firkser might look like, he should do well. I would start Firkser over Knox this week and not look back.
Benjamin: Before the acquisition of Julio Jones, I was all in on Firkser. After that, the looks to him dry up behind Jones, A.J. Brown, and Derrick Henry. There are just too many weapons on this Tennessee offense for Firkser to overcome. Knox, however, has perceived opportunity as he was on the field for more than 60% of Buffalo’s snaps in six of their final seven games – a percentage Firkser never saw even when he started in Week 4. Knox also had 12 yards per reception in 2020 as opposed to Firkser’s 9.92. I want the guy with more YPC and sees more plays. I’ll leave Firkser on the bench.
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