Strength of Schedule: Players to Target
With my Defensive Points Allowed Consistency (D-PAC) scores, I was able to find each team’s average points allowed to each position. For my entire breakdown of the D-PAC scores and more information on what exactly it is, click here. In this article, I’m using the D-PAC score to find some players at each position with a “favorable” matchup on paper. If you find yourself struggling to decide between a few players, these players in Strength of Schedule: Players to Target might be ones to consider.
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Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo / Trey Lance
Whoever wins the starting job in San Francisco not only has one of the best offensive minds in the NFL as their head coach, but they also sport the best strength of schedule according to our D-PAC scores. If you’re drafting now, you will have to call your shot on Jimmy Garoppolo or rookie Trey Lance ahead of the pre-season finale. But Lance is currently going in the 12th round and Garoppolo is going undrafted. So it wouldn’t cost much to grab both players and stash them until you know for sure.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ben Roethlisberger
Both elder statesmen have an ADP in the 14th round and a top-five Strength of Schedule according to our D-PAC score. Getting both signal-callers for cheap and being able to bounce back and forth will limit your need to scour the waiver wire for any reason other than the most unfortunate. Also, neither quarterback has a young backup waiting and threatening their starting job this season.
Some of what makes Fitzpatrick and Roethlisberger so enticing are their matchups against the Denver defense. Last year they had the second-highest D-PAC score versus quarterbacks and gave up an average of 19.63 to the position. However, they also had a lot of pieces missing due to injury and opting out for COVID-19. With those pieces coming back, they might not be quite so friendly to passers. Stafford costs a little more in drafts, with an ADP in round eight. But his positive matchups don’t have anything to do with Denver. And his more difficult matchups (Week 2 and 10) align with games you would feel comfortable streaming either Fitzpatrick or Roethlisberger instead.
Running Backs
Najee Harris
It can be scary drafting a rookie as early as the second round, but Harris shouldn’t give you any hesitation. Not only is Mike Tomlin and the Steelers organization notorious for giving one guy the bulk of the work, but the upcoming schedule for the Steelers is one of the friendliest for running backs. They don’t have a single matchup against the five worst teams to play a running back against. That should help ease Harris into the NFL caliber of defenses.
I guess this is a “Don’t fear rookie running backs” piece because here I am staring down Michael Carter with the New York Jets as another target in later rounds. His ADP is currently in the seventh round around a bunch of other guys in murky committee situations. However, his schedule is one of the more favorable, with the Jets ranked 10th in D-PAC strength of schedule and less competition around him. Could Tevin Coleman be a thorn in fantasy manager’s sides this season? Sure. He’s also not known to really stay healthy. That being said, it’s fairly clear that the fourth-round pick out of North Carolina, Carter, is part of a bigger blueprint to revamp this offense with young talent.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk
It shouldn’t be a terrible surprise that if the 49ers have one of the friendliest upcoming quarterback schedules, their receivers should benefit as well. But in this case, the stars have truly aligned. San Francisco has not only the number one ranked schedule for quarterbacks. But also, the number one ranked upcoming schedule for receivers. Week 1 alone is something to target. Detroit last year averaged the most points allowed to receivers, 43.96, and ranked second highest in D-PAC. Aiyuk has an ADP in round six, while Samuel is slipping all the way down to the eighth round, largely thanks to his injury discount, making them both top targets in the mid to late rounds.
Nelson Agholor resurrected his career in 2020 posting a career-high in total yards (896), yards per target (10.9) and tied for most touchdowns (8). He also surprised us with his best Consistency Score (3.43) since 2017 and ranked 36th last year. Now with an ADP in the 14th round, he’s the number one wide receiver for New England, who happens to have the seventh-ranked D-PAC Strength of Schedule. While his ceiling might not be a top-five wide receiver at the end of the year, he will outperform his current ADP.
Tight Ends
Adam Trautman is checking off all the boxes for me. A talented pass-catcher. Impressive athletic profile. Little competition for targets around him. An ADP in the double-digit rounds, currently the 13th. The New Orleans Saints also have the fifth-best D-PAC Strength of Schedule for tight ends in 2021. If he gets off to a bumpy start, prematurely eject him from your roster. The first three weeks will be his toughest competition. But after that, it’s pretty smooth sailing starting Week 4 against the New York Giants.
While I am officially worried the Dallas Cowboys only have one football to pass around and simply too many weapons on that offense, their defense is truly atrocious. It might be the single reason, aside from Dak Prescott, that all of those offensive goodies don’t disappoint for fantasy. They are going to be in pass-friendly game scripts early and often. In the 15th round, you can get a piece of that air attack for dirt cheap in Blake Jarwin, another victim of a prior year injury knocking down his ADP. While the Cowboys D-PAC Strength of Schedule isn’t the dreamiest, 12th, they only have one bottom five matchup all year and that’s not until Week 6 against the New England Patriots. If you miss out on the bigger names, like Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, or the super trendy CeeDee Lamb, scoop up Jarwin with your last pick in the draft.
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
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