Sunday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Packers vs. Vikings

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 17 of the 2023 NFL regular season is underway in the books. Hopefully, bettors will end the week with more money in their pockets than they started. The grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

We get a matchup between the two NFC North division rivals on Sunday night, as Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers face Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Sunday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Aaron Jones Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Last week, Jones had 127 rushing yards against the Carolina Panthers, a season-high. However, his success in Week 16 had more to do with the matchup against an awful run defense than the running back’s production in 2023. Jones’ performance against the Panthers accounted for nearly 30% of his yearly rushing total. The star running back has averaged only 37.3 rushing yards per game in his other eight contests this season, totaling 41 or fewer in all but two matchups.

Unfortunately, Jones won’t have the same success he had against Carolina on Sunday night. Minnesota gave up 135 rushing yards to the Detroit Lions backfield in Week 16 and 224 to the Philadelphia Eagles’ running backs in Week 2. However, everyone struggles against those teams, as they are arguably the top two rushing attacks in the league. Meanwhile, the Vikings have surrendered only 56.4 rushing yards per game to every other team’s backfield this season.

Ty Chandler Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Minnesota has had a merry-go-round at the running back position in 2023. Alexander Mattison was considered the featured guy before the team traded for Cam Akers. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn Achilles in the middle of the year. More importantly, Chandler has replaced Mattison as the lead running back for the Vikings. The second-year player has averaged 71.3 rushing yards per game over his past four matchups with at least nine rushing attempts, totaling 73 or more yards in half of those contests.

Meanwhile, Green Bay has surrendered the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs entering Week 17, giving up 101.4 per game. They have allowed opposing running backs to total 102 or more yards in over half of the matchups this season, including four of the past five games. Chandler can take any rushing attempt to the house, posting the sixth-highest explosive run rate over the past two weeks among running backs with at least 30 attempts (per Fantasy Points Data).

Jayden Reed Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)

The Packers likely won’t have Christian Watson for the fourth consecutive game because of a hamstring injury. However, Reed will play and take over as the No. wide receiver after toe and chest injuries forced him to miss last week’s win over the Carolina Panthers. The rookie leads the team in receptions per game (3.9). Yet, he has been playing great lately. Reed has averaged 5.2 receptions per contest over his past six contests, totaling six or more in back-to-back games.

Furthermore, Green Bay is determined to get the rookie the ball. Reed has a 23.8% designed target rate, the highest on the team and the fourth-highest in the league among wide receivers with at least 80 targets (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Minnesota has surrendered the most receptions to slot players, giving up 8.8 per game. Reed has run a team-high 74.7% of his routes from the slot this year. He is prime to have another massive performance with Watson out of the lineup.

Justin Jefferson Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

While Jaren Hall will start under center for the Vikings, bettors shouldn’t be afraid to bet the over on Jefferson’s receiving total. Minnesota won’t have T.J. Hockenson for the first time this season because of a knee injury. More importantly, the superstar wide receiver has averaged 102.9 receiving yards per game this year. Furthermore, he has averaged 128 receiving yards per game in the six contests that he didn’t leave early, totaling 85 or more in every one.

When the Vikings faced the Packers in Week 8, they didn’t have Jefferson because of a hamstring injury. However, Green Bay struggled to slow down Minnesota’s passing attack, surrendering over 80 receiving yards to K.J. Osborn (99), T.J. Hockenson (88), and Jordan Addison (82). Meanwhile, Jefferson has owned the Packers since his rookie season, averaging 106.5 receiving yards per game. He has had at least 169 receiving yards in back-to-back games at home against Green Bay.

Tucker Kraft Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Luke Musgrave was having a solid rookie year, averaging 34.1 receiving yards per game. Unfortunately, a lacerated kidney will likely force him to miss his sixth consecutive game on Sunday night. However, the Packers’ offense hasn’t missed a beat without the former Oregon State star because of Kraft. The former South Dakota State star has played well since taking over as the starter, averaging 46.6 receiving yards per game over the past five weeks.

More importantly, Kraft has the sixth-most receiving yards among tight ends over the past three weeks, averaging 60.3 per game, totaling at least 57 in every contest. Furthermore, he is second on the team in targets (17) and first in receiving yards market share (25.1%) over the past three weeks (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Vikings have surrendered 53.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends over their past seven contests, including 87 or more twice.

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