Player props are always a massive market in Super Bowl betting action. In our previous installment, we talked about the ever-popular Super Bowl props. Ahead of Sunday’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, check out our analysis and predictions on key player props heading into the Big Game with Super Bowl 57 Player Prop Picks and Predictions.
Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce has been a gold mine for player prop bettors in the playoffs. He has a touchdown in 5 straight playoff games and has 14 touchdowns in his last 12 post-season appearances. Kelce already has three touchdowns during the Chiefs’ playoff run and has 21 receptions to go along with 176 receiving yards in just two games.
Oddsmakers seem a bit bearish on the Chiefs’ tight end. This can be seen as his receiving total is set at 81.5 yards. His Over/Under receptions is currently at 7.5.
Kelce has 95 or more receiving yards in 7 of his last 8 playoff games. Taking him to have Over 81.5 yards against the Eagles seems like a lock. The line for reach paydirt currently sits at -150 which is a bit steep, but given past performance, seems like a reasonable enough play. Finally, it would be an enticing bet to include in a high-odds Same Game Parlay.
Haason Reddick
Haason Reddick has been a force in the playoffs for the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense. He has 3.5 sacks in two games already. His sack total is set at 0.5 on Sunday, and I’m locking in the Over (-165). He’s registered 1+ sacks in 9 of his last 11 games. Additionally, in one of those two outliers he still recorded a 0.5-sack, which would be good enough for a push. Despite negative odds, this one once again provides great value given recent performance.
Reddick projects to line up against Chiefs right tackle Andrew Wylie, who allowed 9 sacks this season, the 3rd-worst in the NFL amongst offensive linemen per PFF. Wylie also gave up the second-most pressures in the NFL among qualifying tackles. Furthermore, the Eagles’ incredibly deep defensive line prevents offenses from double-teaming its lethal pass rushers, which will put Reddick in plenty of 1 on 1 situations with Wylie on Sunday.
I’m also backing Reddick to have Over 3.5 combined tackles + assists on Sunday. Excluding the meaningless Week 18 game against the Giants where many starters were rested, Reddick has had 4+ combined tackles in 4 of the Eagles’ last 5 games.
The Chiefs’ pass-happy offense typically runs more plays than most teams, which should create more opportunities for Reddick to make plays on the ball carrier.
Kenneth Gainwell
I’m all in on Kenneth Gainwell having an impact out of the backfield against Kansas City. The Chiefs allowed the most receptions in the NFL to opposing running backs with 112, along with the most targets (136). Kansas City also gave up 806 receiving yards to running backs, which was 3rd most in the NFL. They gave up 6 receptions for 19 yards to the combo of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine in the AFC Championship earlier this year. Prior to that, they gave up 4 receptions for 25 yards to the Jaguars’ running back room.
Miles Sanders is rarely involved in the Eagles’ passing attack as he has just one reception in the last four games. The pass-catching role belongs to Kenneth Gainwell. He’s fresh off his 2 receptions for 26 yards against the San Francisco 49ers. Despite not being involved much early in the season, Gainwell is averaging 2 receptions for 18.4 receiving yards per game over his last 8 outings. Oddsmakers have juice on the line for him to have Over 1.5 receptions (-130). In 7 games where Gainwell has recorded 2+ receptions, he’s gone for 12+ yards in 5 of them.
Furthermore, his receiving yard total is set at 11.5 yards. Given Kansas City’s propensity to give up receiving yards to RBs in the passing game, along with Gainwell being the primary receiving back in the Eagles’ offense, I believe there’s value in taking him to have 2+ receptions and Over 11.5 receiving yards.
Jalen Hurts
The extra two weeks of rest could pay off big for Jalen Hurts and anyone backing him in Super Bowl player props. He’s struggled to put up numbers since returning to injury, but I’m betting on a return to form this weekend.
His passing touchdown total is currently set at 1.5, with the line leaning towards the Over (-126). I’m bullish on Hurts, as he’d thrown for 2+ touchdowns in 7 of his last 9 games prior to getting injured. Really, he’s been rather unimpressive lately, but I believe that will create value.
The Chiefs’ pass defense has been stalwart lately, but how much of that is due to home-field advantage? The deafening crowd at Arrowhead has undoubtedly played a big impact on the defense’s performance of late. When you compare their home and away splits, it seems rather apparent.
The Chiefs’ defense conceded an NFL-worst 20 passing touchdowns in 9 games away from home this season. At home meanwhile, they allowed only 13 during the regular season. Combined they allowed an NFL-worst 33 passing touchdowns all season. The next closest teams were the Cardinals (29), Steelers (29), Titans (29), and Buccaneers (29).
Crowd noise at the Super Bowl doesn’t typically favor either team, which makes it an audible-friendly environment. Without the backdrop of Arrowhead limiting pre-snap adjustments from the offense, I believe the Philly passing offense will have the edge. Couple that with Kansas City’s defense giving up plenty of touchdowns, and I’m big on Hurts having himself a day.
The Kansas City defense notably gives up a ton of yardage on the ground to opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs gave up 444 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season, the 5th-most in the NFL. While Hurts’ rushing total is set rather high (50.5 yards), it still could be a valuable play. He’s gone for 61+ on the ground in 4 of his last 8 games. The games he didn’t were against Tennessee, the Giants twice, and San Francisco, who had the best defense in the NFL. The Titans and 49ers were two of the best teams in the NFL at limiting opposing quarterbacks and their scrambling this season. The Giants weren’t too shabby either.
Overall, Hurts has a plus matchup against a leaky defense that struggles to contain the quarterback. His line is not exceptionally generous, but there is still value to be had.
Patrick Mahomes
Some of Mahomes’ player props are a tad bit generous for my taste. His passing yard total is set at 295.5, which is pretty steep for any quarterback going against an elite defense.
Here are his lines from his two career Super Bowl appearances:
| DATE | TM | OPP | CMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | AVG | TD | TD% | INT | INT% | SCK | RATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/2/2020 | KC | SF | 26 | 42 | 61.9 | 286 | 6.8 | 2 | 4.8 | 2 | 4.8 | 4 | 78.1 |
| 2/7/2021 | KC | TB | 26 | 49 | 53.1 | 270 | 5.5 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 4.1 | 3 | 52.3 |
| Average | 26.0 | 45.5 | 57.1 | 278.0 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 64.2 | ||
| Total | 52 | 91 | 57.1 | 556 | 6.1 | 2 | 2.2 | 4 | 4.4 | 7 | 64.2 |
If there’s a quarterback that is likely to pop off for almost 300+ yards, it’s Mahomes. However, I just don’t see much value in betting on it. The Over 295.5 yards is being juiced heavily at most books (-125), and if anything the Under seems much more appealing from a value standpoint.
The Eagles’ defense gave up 296+ yards passing just one time this season in 19 games. There is the argument that they didn’t play a whole lot of elite quarterbacks, which is true. I’m simply having trouble believing there is an edge to be had on Mahomes to pop off. He’s never reached that mark in previous Super Bowls. With that said, I wouldn’t be comfortable betting against him here either so I’d put a half-unit bet on it at most.
Where I would bet against him is on interceptions. Mahomes has become more surgical and precise this season and eliminated a lot of the reckless plays from his arsenal. Without Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs’ offense has seemingly leveled up and made him take fewer risks.
With that said, I still believe he throws a pick in the Super Bowl. The Eagles defense’s 20.3% ball hawk rate ranks 4th in the NFL, and Mahomes averages one interception for every 31.5 attempts when facing a top-10 ball hawk defense. Mahomes has thrown multiple picks in both of his Super Bowl appearances, and I believe we’re going to see some more this weekend.
Stay tuned throughout the week for more picks and predictions at the Intermission Network. You can read more breakdowns on popular props such as National Anthem betting and more. We’ll also be breaking down key betting action and whether or not it’ll be profitable to fade the public at Super Bowl LVII.
Trending Now
Dynasty Content
New to Underdog Fantasy? If you are a new user and make your first-time deposit, get a 100% deposit match of up to $100. Take advantage of this terrific offer here.
Connect and Engage With the Show:
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Visit us on the Web
- Follow us on Facebook
- Follow on Twitter
- Subscribe on Apple Podcasts
- Follow on Instagram
- Subscribe on Google Podcasts
- Subscribe on Spotify
