The Ascenders: Underdog Dynasty Wide Receiver Risers 2024
The world is falling apart. Orange men are getting shot in the ear. Glenn Powell is in every new movie. Sharks in Brazil have tested positive for cocaine. Global warming. Rising sea levels. There’s a weird mole on my knee. And I still don’t know what Brexit is. There’s only one group of heroes that can bring peace in these trying times. I’m talking about the small school saviors. The mid to late-round mavericks. These dynasty wide receiver risers have inspired hope in every dynasty drafter and stasher across the nation. The Ascenders.
Dontayvion Wicks is the leader of The Ascenders. He’s the thumbnail in all the off-season YouTube videos. He’s the guy on the lunch box. Coincidentally, coach Matt LaFleur has some Tony Stark facial hair. There’s a range of similarly productive late-round receivers that have ascended to a tenuous value zone. They’re on the precipice of fantasy relevance. Will Wicks and company save the world? Or will they clog my roster for years to come?
This corniness is the result of looking at stat sheets and realizing that Michael Wilson, Dontayvion Wicks, Khalil Shakir, and Joshua Palmer all produced similar yearly totals. These players are all under 25 with round three or later draft capital. I excluded receivers with 650+ yards and 40+ receptions in order to keep the gimmick strong, but DeMario Douglas and Rashid Shaheed are Ascenders in spirit. Shaheed can be the Splinter-style mentor, as he’ll be 26 when the season starts. Douglas can be the group’s supercharged secret weapon. Anyway, they’re both good buys at their current values. The criteria also exclude guys like Puka Nacua, Tank Dell and Josh Downs. Basically, if you didn’t get exactly 38 or 39 receptions, you’re off the project.
Dynasty Wide Receiver Risers By The Numbers
- Joshua Palmer: 38 Receptions, 61 Targets, 581 Yards, 15.3 Y/R, 2 TD, 10 Games
- Michael Wilson: 38 Receptions, 58 Targets, 565 Yards, 14.9 Y/R, 3 TD, 13 Games
- Khalil Shakir: 39 Receptions, 45 Targets, 611 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 2 TD, 17 Games
- Dontayvion Wicks: 39 Receptions, 58 targets, 581 yards, 14.9 Y/R, 4 TD, 15 Games
Dynasty Wide Receiver Riser: Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
It feels a little disingenuous to call Joshua Palmer an Ascender. It will be his fourth year in the league and his 2023 campaign was derailed by injury and Easton Stick throwing him the football. But The Ascenders are all about hope. And there’s a lot to be hopeful about when you look at Palmer’s 2023 season. Palmer registered a career-high 15.3 Y/R. That’s a significant jump from 2022’s 10.7 Y/R, which was good enough for him to finish as WR37 in PPR.
Palmer excels both as a possession receiver and as a deep threat. He presents a big body and sure hands for shallow targets. Quick feet help him break effectively, flashing open for outs, comebacks, slants, etc. He also boxes out defenders with his big body and makes plays through contact. Palmer was an exceptional deep threat in 2023.
Three receptions of 50+ yards is equal to Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase, DK Metcalf, George Pickens, and Rashid Shaheed. Palmer easily saw the fewest targets out of this group. He’s a natural deep ball tracker with incredible focus and positioning. The fluidity of his vertical rise is really aesthetically pleasing. He times his jumps well and seems to hang in the air forever as he extends acrobatically to catch the ball away from his body. He’s also a better YAC receiver than you might think with 5.2 YAC/R last year.
Los Angeles was a dumpster fire. If we’re sticking to the whole superhero thing, Brandon Staley was like Morbius. He sucked. Palmer’s injuries didn’t help, as a knee and a concussion forced him to miss a total of seven games. This killed his early season momentum. He’d just had a 133-yard game against Kansas City before injuring his knee a week later. Then he came back to finish the season with Easton Stick. He managed a nice 12.5 PPG in his final three games as Stick’s primary target.
The situation is still a little strange heading into 2024. It’s a new coaching staff, and Jim Harbaugh has historically led run-first teams. He didn’t, however, have Justin Herbert when he was in San Francisco or Michigan. Ladd McConkey should see a large number of targets. The rest is still unclear. Palmer has to beat out reclamation project Quentin Johnston and new addition Brenden Rice. It’s not exactly an insurmountable hill, but the receiving room has a few bodies. Screw it. I’m not worried about it.
Dynasty Wide Receiver Riser: Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals drafted Michael Wilson late in the third round of the 2023 NFL draft. His 6’2, 213-pound frame offers prototypical length and play strength. He led receivers at the 2023 NFL Combine with 23 reps on the bench press. He also had solid vertical (37.5’) and broad jumps (10’5). The athletic profile paints a picture of a jump ball X receiver, but when you watch him play it becomes apparent that he’s a supremely talented route runner.
A decisive, varied release package helps him consistently beat press coverage. He flashes open quickly underneath or will gain a step on his defender as he begins his route. He’s a nuanced runner on his stem and has a feel for manipulating leverage. Then he has quick feet to break off the stem on the inside or outside and win separation. After all that, he’s physical and controlled at the catchpoint and he can maintain possession near the boundary and through big collisions.
Wilson is admittedly the bargain bin Ascender. There isn’t a huge line for him at the meet and greet. This is understandable since Marvin Harrison Jr. crashed into Arizona like a UFO in Roswell. MHJ’s and Trey McBride’s Superflex dynasty rankings are among the best at their respective positions. They figure to dominate Arizona’s target share in 2024. Wilson should be the third-best pass catcher on the team. He flashed more upside last year than Zay Jones has in his entire career, and Greg Dortch is limited to the slot while Wilson has shown that he can effectively line up anywhere along the formation.
Wilson is also a plus blocker, which should help him stay on the field in 2024. That brings me to my next point. He needs to stay on the field. He only played 14 games in his last three collegiate seasons, and he missed 4 games in his rookie year. Limited situational upside and injury risk factors in his value, as he’s a whopping 50 spots below Wicks in the dynasty rankings. Given their identical stat lines, that gulf is extreme. Wilson presents a bargain at his current price.
Dynasty Wide Receiver Riser: Khalil Shakir (is elite), Buffalo Bills
Khalil Shakir is my favorite Ascender. I’m preordering tickets to the movie. I’m camping out in line to be one of the first people to experience the Shakir breakout season. His catch rate (86.7%) is the best among wide receivers, and Josh Allen posted a league-high rating when targeting him in 2023. Shakir’s YAC/R (7.2) is third-best in the league. He shifts instinctually into a ballcarrier once he makes the catch, turning shallow targets into first downs and intermediate ones into explosive gains. His Y/R (15.7) is above other YAC leaders, including Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice, and DeMario Douglas.
It’s also above honorable mention Ascender Rashid Shaheed. This shows that Shakir is far more than a YAC gadget. He’s a polished route runner who consistently finds himself open near the boundary and in the middle of the field. He also has the body control to make impressive catches, and the strength to hold on through big hits. Shakir cemented himself as an ascending prospect in the playoffs. He broke a Minkah Fitzpatrick tackle and outran Pittsburgh for a touchdown. He also beat L’Jarius Sneed for a touchdown in the Bills’ final postseason game, proving he can hang with the big dogs.
The main concern with Shakir is where he’s going to line up. He played most of his snaps in the slot last year, but Curtis Samuel and Dalton Kincaid also operate frequently from the slot. I’m willing to bet that Joe Brady will get creative with how these guys line up in 2024. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have left behind 241 targets.
That’s about 40% of the team’s target share that the offense needs to account for. Kincaid figures to benefit the most immediately, but the pass-catching totem pole has yet to be set behind him. While I think Samuel is a good player, we’ve seen his best already. He also needed 46 more targets than Shakir last year to produce the same amount of yards. Shakir is good. He’s really good. He’s going to see the field and he will be viable in 2024.
Dynasty Wide Receiver Riser: Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers
It’s a Wicky Wicky Wild Summer. When Matt Harmon speaks, the fantasy community listens. Reception Perception calculated success rates of 72.2% against man and 72.7% against press coverage for Dontayvion Wicks. This is incredibly impressive for a receiver who spends the majority of his time at the X. He also had a league-leading rate of getting open against single-man coverage with a 55.13% clip. The rest of the list is mostly slot receivers and elite talents like CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans. Matt Harmon notes Wicks’ 90% success rate on out routes, which he ran 11.4% of the time. The tape matches the advanced stats, as Wicks absolutely turns defenders around coming out of his breaks.
He does a great job of pushing vertically before rapidly breaking from his stem. He also has stop-and-start control, hitting the brakes and resuming full speed at will. The athletic testing aligns with the on-field product. He has a 10’10” broad jump and a 39” vertical. These short-area athleticism numbers stack up with honorable mention Ascender DeMario Douglas, who is 4 inches shorter and almost 20 pounds lighter than Wicks. Wicks is also an excellent ball carrier. He didn’t often get the ball in space, but he managed to break 5 tackles and registered 5.4 YAC/R. It’s very clear why he’s the favorite Ascender.
The only true concern with Wicks is the Packers’ receiving room. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Romeo Doubs are all great players. Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are also weapons. Is there enough Love to go around? If I’m being honest, I don’t care. This is dynasty, and when talent is obvious it’s in your best interest to make your move and let the situation play out. And it’s not like he’s in a bad situation. Jordan Love’s potential is hall of fame level, and Matt Lafleur runs an incredibly productive offense. I’m generally getting as much exposure to the Packers as I can.
Dynasty Wide Receiver Risers: Final Thoughts
The Ascenders and similarly tiered players are my favorite guys to bet on. They’ve flashed in the league and are still young enough to feel like a re-roll on a draft pick. They likely won’t solve global warming, and I’ll probably need to see a doctor about that mole. But these are the kinds of players that make dynasty so fun. If Khalil Shakir is good, I’m a genius who knew it all along. If he sucks, then I guess the true Ascenders were the friends we made along the way.
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