The Best Late-Round Value Picks in Fantasy Football 2023
The 2023 fantasy football season is still a few months away. However, it’s never too early to prepare. While everyone wants to talk about the top-tier players, the later-round picks make or break your fantasy season.
Let’s look at eight players with an ADP outside the top 100 that I believe will be value picks this year.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
ADP: 115.7 | QB18
Some will call me crazy, but I’m a big believer in Wilson this season. While he struggled in his first year in Denver, the star quarterback played better over the final few weeks. Wilson averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game over the final four contests last season. More importantly, the veteran had arguably his top two performances after the team fired Nathaniel Hackett. Meanwhile, the Broncos hired Sean Payton this offseason, giving Wilson an excellent offensive-minded head coach. The team made massive improvements to the offensive line in free agency. They also improved their wide receiver core during the NFL Draft. Wilson is due for a bounce-back 2023 season.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
ADP: 106.3 | RB36
When the Commanders used a third-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on Gibson, their backfield was a fantasy nightmare. Yet, the former Memphis star became a productive fantasy running back, averaging at least 13 half-point PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie and in 2021. Unfortunately, things changed last year, as the team drafted Brian Robinson. Gibson had the worst year of his career last season, averaging only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt and 9.5 fantasy points per game. However, there is hope for the young running back. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy made Jerick McKinnon an RB2 last season and should use Gibson in a similar role in the passing game in Washington.
Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 126.7 | RB43
Speaking of McKinnon, the veteran running back is one of the favorite value players this year despite the loss of Bieniemy. The veteran running back averaged 11.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, a career-high. Furthermore, he accomplished that average despite having only 72 rushing attempts. McKinnon became a go-to receiver for Patrick Mahomes last year, finishing fourth on the team in targets (71), third in receptions (56), and second in receiving touchdowns (nine). Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency this offseason, leaving the team without a proven pass catcher other than Travis Kelce. Don’t be surprised if McKinnon has a prime years James White-like season in 2023.
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 136.3 | WR56
Yes, Thielen has seen his production slip over the past few years. However, he was passing the torch to Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. Yet, the veteran remains one of the best at finding the end zone, totaling 45 receiving touchdowns over his past 71 contests. More importantly, Thielen has an unchallenged role as the No. 1 wide receiver in Carolina. The Panthers traded away DJ Moore this offseason, opening up a massive number of targets. The former Maryland star averaged 133.5 targets per season over the past four years with the Panthers. Even if he only sees 75% of those targets (100), Thielen is a value as the 56th wide receiver off the board.
Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 184.3 | WR71
Most fantasy players had never heard of Shaheed nine months ago. However, the undrafted free agent became fantasy relevant at the end of last season. Shaheed was the WR67, averaging 7.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. Yet, the rookie had more total fantasy points than Michael Gallup, Chase Claypool, and Elijah Moore despite playing fewer games. More importantly, he was the WR24 over the final four weeks last season, averaging 2.1 fantasy points per target and 9.9 fantasy points per game despite scoring only one touchdown. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas has missed 80% of the games over the past three years because of injury. Therefore, no one should be surprised if Shaheed becomes a starter before the end of September.
Tyquan Thornton, New England Patriots
ADP: 213.7 | WR83
Thankfully the Patriots wised up this offseason, hiring Bill O’Brien as their offensive coordinator after the Matt Patricia experiment horribly failed. Yet, Thornton hasn’t gotten enough attention from the fantasy community. The former Baylor star missed time as a rookie with injuries and struggled because of the lack of offensive creativity. Yet, Thornton averaged over 6.9 yards per route run on routes 10 or more yards downfield. More importantly, he averaged 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 1.82 fantasy points per target in the four games with five or more targets last season. If Mac Jones can ball downfield consistently, the second-year receiver will be a steal at his ADP.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
ADP: 126.3 | TE12
While the former Maryland tight end had a limited impact early in his rookie season, Okonkwo was productive to end the year. Over the final six games of the 2022 season, the young tight end averaged 3.5 receptions on 4.3 targets for 40.5 receiving yards per game. More importantly, he was the TE8 during those six weeks, averaging 8.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Okonkwo was dangerous in the open field, averaging 7.8 yards after the catch per reception. Meanwhile, the Titans released Robert Woods this offseason and waited until Day 3 of the NFL Draft to add a pass catcher. While Treylon Burks should lead the team in targets this year, Okonkwo will be right behind him.
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
ADP: 173.7 | TE21
The Detroit passing game starts with Amon-Ra St. Brown. Unfortunately, the Lions lack proven options behind the former USC star. However, LaPorta could fill the No. 2 pass catcher role as a rookie. The second-round pick had a productive college career despite playing with awful quarterbacks, totaling 153 receptions for 1,786 receiving yards and five touchdowns at Iowa. More importantly, he could become a go-to red zone weapon for Jared Goff early in his career. Last year the Lions got nine receiving touchdowns on 40 receptions from their tight ends not named T.J. Hockenson. Meanwhile, Jameson Williams will miss the first six games this year, creating even more opportunities for LaPorta.
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