The Fantasy Football Consistency Corner – 2021 in Review

Welcome back! Congratulations on your fantasy football championship. Or, my deepest sympathies on your playoff defeat. But either way, I’m glad you’re lending me your eyeballs one last time this season as this is one of my favorite articles to write each year. Check it all out here in The Fantasy Football Consistency Corner – 2021 in Review.

I’m going to take a look at where players who finished the year ranked positionally in total fantasy points, and compare that to where they finished the season ranked in Consistency Score (CS). Think of this as an appetizer to the offseason “Consistency Collection Draft Guide”. We won’t get too detailed in as many players, but I like to highlight the outliers so we all remember how players truly performed for our fantasy football teams on a week-by-week basis.

And if you’re new to the Consistency Corner, first off, thanks for stopping by! Secondly, you can get a brief rundown on CS and how it works here:

What is the Fantasy Football Consistency Score?

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Consistency Score: Running Backs

Consistency Score: Wide Receivers

Consistency Score: Tight Ends

Consistency Score: DST

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray

10th in total fantasy points / 3rd highest CS – seven spots higher

With Kyler Murray, it’s going to be vital to remember he missed weeks 9-12 when drafting next summer, to really remember how valuable he was to your fantasy football roster. Murray lived in the elite QB1 range of his peers, finishing over 60% of games finished as a top-12 signal-caller, a top-5 option in five out of 13 games, and as the QB1 in three different weeks.

Murray started the season red hot, posting two weeks of 33+ fantasy points. His ceiling was actually Week 1 netting fantasy managers 33.56 points. He likely would be the position leader in CS was it not for his Week 8 dud against the Green Bay Packers where he only netted 9.06 fantasy points on 274 yards, two interceptions, and no touchdowns. This floor dropped his overall CS quite a bit.

Once he returned to the field though he fell right back into form putting up another 30+ fantasy points. All this without a truly healthy DeAndre Hopkins for most of the year. As long as he’s on the field, he is an elite fantasy football quarterback. Imagine if he had a full complement of pass-catchers around him next season.

Dak Prescott

7th in total fantasy points / 14th highest CS – seven spots lower

Dak Prescott, and the entire Cowboys offense, flashed greatness at times while also seeming to sputter half of the time. Prescott’s 20 average fantasy points per game may seem safe. But a closer look at how he got them tells another story.

Prescott seemed to continuously seesaw between elite status (top-5) and outside the top-24 range. His 31.3 ceiling came in time for the playoffs, Week 16, and is comparable to Kyler Murray’s. But his 2.64 fantasy points floor, from Week 11, is among the lowest at the position.

With many Kellen Moore being a trendy Head Coach candidate for 2022, Prescott might be losing the brainchild of that offense. He’ll still have plenty of weapons at his disposal. But will they be able to get utilized to their max like Moore has been able to do in these past few seasons?

Prescott is still going to be a great fantasy option. But if his ADP creeps too high, he’s going to be easier and easier to pass on if you can’t count on him week to week and he has a new offensive coordinator.

Running Backs

Elijah Mitchell

25th in total fantasy points / 9th highest CS – 16 spots higher

Elijah Mitchell is going to be a prime example of the “injury discount”. Mitchell only played in 11 games, clearly capping his end-of-year total points. But in the games he played he averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game, the 12th highest among running backs.

A huge contributing factor was his usage. In all 11 games played he received double-digit total opportunities and averaged 20.6 touches per game. Considering the 49ers lead the league in rush attempts, seventh in rushing yards, and fifth in rushing touchdowns, you’re going to want a piece of that rushing attack. And next season, as long as he’s healthy, you’re not going to get a bigger piece of that ground game than Elijah Mitchell.

Antonio Gibson

10th in total fantasy points / 25th highest CS – 15 spots lower

Antonio Gibson‘s year-end finish in total fantasy points is the perfect argument as to why volume is king in fantasy football. His 258 rush attempts were the fourth most among running backs this year, allowing him to sneak into the top-10 in terms of total points. But any managers who rostered the Washington Football Teams lead back sure didn’t feel like they had a top-10 guy they could count on more often than not.

Gibson had a tendency to swing wildly from an RB1 to not even usable the next week. Week 5 to Week 6 is a prime example of his season as a whole. Week 5 Gibson found the endzone twice and put up 72 yards for 20.2 fantasy points. Then in Week 6 he plummeted to 3.4 fantasy points and only put up 44 total yards.

In 16 games, Gibson was a top-12 option in only 33.3% of games played, and a top-24 rusher in only 26.7% of games. That leaves 40% of his games played where he wasn’t even an RB2. That’s simply too high a percent for a league leader in rush attempts.

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Wide Receivers

Tee Higgins

22nd in total fantasy points / 13th highest CS – 9 spots higher

Were it not for the incredibly sluggish start of 2021 for Tee Higgins he would have found himself with an even higher CS, 5.27, and better ranking. Weeks 1 through 11 Higgins averaged under 10 fantasy points per game. From Week 12 on he averaged 17+ fantasy points per game and went on a tear for managers who played him in the fantasy football playoffs.

Higgins nearly singlehandedly sent many fantasy football managers to the championship round by scoring his ceiling game in Week 16. With 194 yards and two touchdowns, Higgins exploded for 37.4 fantasy points. That was the highest ceiling among all receivers until teammate Ja’Marr Chase blew the roof off with a 50.1 performance the following week.

That ceiling though shows just how explosive Higgins can be when he and Joe Burrow are on the same page. Pair that with how solid he was each and every week from Week 12 on is what raised his Consistency Score so high, despite the garbage start to the year. That sustained performance needs to be remembered more clearly than the slow start.

Next draft season, Higgins will go dramatically later than many receivers that don’t have nearly the upside Higgins does in this offense.

DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett

Metcalf – 12nd in total fantasy points / 22nd highest CS – 10 spots lower
Lockett – 13th in total fantasy points / 29th highest CS – 16 spots lower

At times this season, it felt like if you had either DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett, you had something special at receiver. And for real-life football that’s pretty true. But unfortunately much of the season, it also felt like you had a complete dud plugged into a starting receiver spot.

Only once all year did Metcalf and Lockett both have solid a good game in the same game. Other than Week 8, you had to make a bet as to which receiver would pop. And if you weren’t rostering that Seahawk, you were better off benching the other one.

While both receivers had similar ceilings, 27.9 for Metcalf and 27.8 for Lockett, Lockett’s floor of 2.2 is a touch bit lower than Metcalf’s, 4.1.

Part of the problem for both receivers is that the Seattle Seahawks are strictly a “run first” offense. The Seahawks had the second-fewest passing attempts in the entire league, 495.

This is another team that’s going to be intriguing during the offseason, and the ripple effects are going to have major repercussions for both Metcalf and Lockett. If the Seahawks part ways with Russell Wilson and keep head coach Pete Carroll, it will be pretty clear they will be working to establish the run throughout 2022. But if Wilson stays and the organization decides to go in a different direction at head coach and offensive coordinator, then this offense might finally open up.

I think the one thing the whole fantasy football community can agree on, is that the worst situation might be if the whole band stays together and we just have enough up and down frustrating season for all these players involved.

Did you like this piece? Disagree? Drop me a line and let me know @DumpsterDiveFF and go ahead and follow for more fantasy football nuggets & all things Consistency Score related! If you’re a fantasy football content creator, please take advantage of the Consistency Score and use it in your content!

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What is the Consistency Score?

Consistency Score Home

Consistency Score: Running Backs

Consistency Score: Wide Receivers

Consistency Score: Tight Ends

Consistency Score: DST

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