The Realist DraftKings DFS Picks: Week 1

Hello and welcome to The Realist Draft Kings Picks for Week 1 of the NFL season. My name is Michael Hauff and I will be delivering some of my favorite daily fantasy picks all season long. As the title and my Twitter handle suggest, the intent of this article is to keep it real and give you the best possible plays to win, and not to steer you wrong in an effort to clickbait. Check it all out in The Realist DraftKings DFS Picks: Week 1.

Before we go any further, like any other league you play in, it is imperative that you are aware of what the DraftKings scoring format consists of. You can catch up on that by clicking here. Now that we have that covered, this week of NFL action that this article will discuss is based on a 13 game slate. Lastly, before getting into these picks, I will also be putting together Draft Kings scoring charts. These charts will help keep you best informed on who will is trending up and it can all be found on this wonderful site. 

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts ($6,400)

PHI @ ATL

In spite of too many Deshaun Watson trade rumors, the dust has settled and Jalen Hurts is still standing as the Eagles starting quarterback. Luckily for Hurts, he will have one heck of an opportunity to start strong against a Falcons team that has continuously been a great matchup for quarterbacks. In two out of the last three seasons, the Falcons have allowed more points to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the NFL. 

While Arthur Smith was able to lure Dean Pees out of retirement to be the Falcons defensive coordinator, time will if that has an instant impact for the better.  As for Hurts himself, the rookie scored 20 or more points in three out of his last four games last season. This would include two games against teams who were in the top half in the fewest points allowed to the quarterback position.

Circling back to the Falcons defense one last time, their defense was ninth in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks and were one of six teams to allow six or more rushing touchdowns last season.

Kyler Murray ($7,600)

ARI @ TEN

Yes, I get it. Selecting the second-most expensive in the slate isn’t exactly a reach. That being said, it is my article to write, and with the Arizona Cardinals taking on the Tennessee Titans, I wouldn’t be doing this article justice if I didn’t mention Kyler Murray. 

Prior to injuries slowing him down in the tail end of the 2020 season, Murray was a fantasy points machine early on. In the first 10 games last season, Murray averaged a scintillating 30 points per game, which included nine weeks as a Top-12 quarterback. With a clean bill of health and DeAndre Hopkins by his side, Murray will be thrashing Tennessee and delivering green.

As for the Titans defense, if you have delved into football preparation this offseason, it is hard to ignore just how bad the Titans defense will be. It should come as a complete surprise when looking at their points allowed to quarterbacks last season. The Titans defense fell victim to several quarterbacks as they have seven games with allowing 25 or more points to opposing quarterbacks. It was those sorts of returns that had them finishing fifth in most points allowed to the position, with no signs of slowing down this season.

Honorable mentions: Matt Ryan ($6,000), Ryan Tannehill ($6,500), Carson Wentz ($5,600) 

Running Back 

Raheem Mostert ($5,800) 

SF @ DET

Rightfully so, several eyebrows were raised when the 49ers drafted Trey Sermon in the third round of the NFL Draft this past April. For now, Raheem Mostert is healthy and ready to roll into Detroit for a matchup against the Detroit Lions.

While the Lions have a bravado of toughness with the incoming head coach, Dan Campbell, the Lions looked more like kittens against running backs in the 2020 season. The Lions allowed the second-most points to the position last season and were one of two teams to allow over 500 points to backs. For perspective, allowing that amount of points to running backs has only been done six times in the last three years. 

Like most members of the 49ers, Mostert’s 2020 season was torpedoed by injuries. Looking back on those first two weeks of the season provides a healthy reminder of what the journeyman running back can do when able. In those first two games, Mostert averaged 6.4 YPC and had 110 yards receiving. Time will tell if Mostert can stay healthy through a full season but for now, Mostert is one of the better options under $6,000 at running back.

If the 49ers are in control of game of a game and have the healthy bodies to do so, they will hammer the Lions into submission with the running game, especially with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.  

The 49ers running back position averaged 35.8 touches per game in wins last year.

— Scott Fish (@ScottFish24) September 10, 2021

Melvin Gordon ($5,300)

DEN @ NYG

It isn’t lost on me that Javonte Williams was drafted by the Denver Broncos this past April. With that out of the way, if you are needing to spend low on the running back position, Melvin Gordon is an interesting option and isn’t on the tip of everyone’s tongues.

Last season, Gordon closed strong as he finished as a top-10 running back in three out of the Broncos last five games. While Gordon dealt with a groin injury during Training Camp, all systems appear to be a go for the veteran back. At some point, Williams will significantly eat into Gordon’s workload. That being said, I don’t envision that being immediately out of the gates this season. Gordon is a good play, for now.

Honorable Mentions: James Robinson ($6,400), James Conner ($4,500), Myles Gaskin ($6,000)  

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Wide Receiver

Corey Davis ($4,900)

NYJ @ CAR

It is hard for me to put into words just how bullish I am on Corey Davis this week. While the former Tennessee Titan failed to reach the endzone in the preseason, he was the most targeted Jet of the preseason as he hauled in 6/10 targets for 66 yards. In Zach Wilson’s regular-season debut, I do not envision the Jets coaching staff coddling the second overall pick. Davis is coming off of the best year of his career and I expect Davis to be the most targeted Jet this weekend. 

Last season, the Panthers allowed the twelfth fewest points to wide receivers. That being said, not every daily fantasy pick has to be a cushy matchup. The selection of Davis has a lot more to do with his status on the Jets depth chart than it does the actual opponent. 

Zach Wilson 🚀 Corey Davis

New York’s new duo 🍎pic.twitter.com/ODfVkYorry

— PFF (@PFF) August 14, 2021

Tee Higgins ($4,700)

CIN vs MIN

While social media continues to obnoxiously feast on Ja’Marr Chase comments that were taken out of context, Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings will be a time for Tee Higgins to shine. Last season, the Vikings allowed the sixth-most points to wide receivers and were one of four teams to allow over twenty receiving touchdowns to the position.

As for Higgins and the Bengals, all systems are a go for Joe Burrow following major knee surgery. In the 10 games that Higgins played with Burrow last season, Higgins had six games with eight targets or more. I fully expect Chase to be better than what social media leads you to believe and Tyler Boyd will be a presence in the offense. With all of that being said, until proven otherwise, Higgins is the alpha wide receiver in this offense and that will be on full display against the Minnesota Vikings. 

Honorable Mentions: DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800), Robby Anderson ($5,700), Devonta Smith ($4,500), Jarvis Landry ($6,000)

Tight End

Kyle Pitts ($4,400)

ATL vs PHI

For tight end this week, there is only one player that I am nominating and that is the highly-regarded rookie, Kyle Pitts. In his NFL debut, Pitts will faceoff against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that finished the 2020 season in the top-12 in most points allowed to the tight end position.

Listen, I’m not going to attempt to sugarcoat this for, I will be a realist. Pitts represents the prospect of a generational tight end and it would not shock me if his $4,400 price tag is damn near doubled by the end of the season.

The Falcons and Eagles game is one of a few games that I view as a daily fantasy delight and if you remember my honorable mentions for the quarterback position, Matt Ryan is listed and Pitts is a reason for that. Both he and Ridley will lead the Falcons in receptions and I will also predict that his first career NFL touchdown will come in the first half. 

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce ($8,300), Logan Thomas ($4,600), Jonnu Smith ($4,100)

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