Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Bills vs Dolphins
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business. Today, we’re looking at the top player prop bets for Thursday Night Football between the Bills and Dolphins.
Player Prop Bets – Thursday Night Football
Thursday night, we have a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.
All odds are from DraftKings as of 9/12/2024.
Josh Allen to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-115)
The Bills talk about limiting Allen’s rushing attempts every year. Yet, the superstar quarterback continues to find the end zone as a runner. He has 15 rushing scores in 2023, finishing second in the NFL and first among quarterbacks. Allen had a rushing touchdown in 70% of the games, including one in the early season matchup against the Dolphins. Some thought Ray Davis or James Cook would have a significant role around the goal line in 2024.
Yet, Allen had both of the team’s two rushing touchdowns last week. Both rushing scores came within the 10-yard line, with one off of a scramble run. The superstar had only two of his nine rushing attempts inside the green zone in Week 1, accounting for half of the team’s total. Expect Buffalo to lean on Allen’s rushing abilities as they figure out their new receiving core.
Tau Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105)
While the Week 1 matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Dolphins should have been a high-scoring shootout, the final score was 20-17. Tagovailoa had only one touchdown in the contest despite Tyreek Hill (130 receiving yards), Jaylen Waddle (109), and De’Von Achane (76) all having massive performances in the passing game. Unfortunately, the lack of passing touchdowns isn’t surprising for the former Alabama star after his disappointing and inconsistent 2023 season.
Tagovailoa had eight passing touchdowns over the first three games last year. However, he totaled only 21 over the other 14 contests. Furthermore, the veteran had one or fewer passing scores in nearly 53% of the games last season. Meanwhile, Buffalo held Kyler Murray to only one passing score in Week 1. Tagovailoa has thrown more than one touchdown in only one of six career starts against the Bills, including one in both matchups last year.
James Cook Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Buffalo will have a more balanced offense this season under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Cook had 19 rushing attempts for 71 yards in Week 1. The 19 rushing attempts were the third-most of his career and the sixth time totaling 15 or more with Brady as the play-caller. While the young running back struggled in both matchups against Miami in 2023, the Dolphins no longer have Christian Wilkins in the middle of their defensive line.
More importantly, Miami gave up 117 rushing yards to Jacksonville’s backfield in Week 1, the eighth-most in the NFL, surrendering nearly five yards per attempt. Furthermore, the Dolphins allowed the Jaguars to have the fifth-highest explosive run rate (7.7%) and the eighth-best rushing yards after contact per attempt average (2.69) last week (per Fantasy Points Data). Cook had the 12th-highest explosive run rate (5.3%) among running backs with 12 attempts in Week 1. He should thrive against the division rivals.
Tyreek Hill Under 96.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Betting against Hill might not be the safest move to make. Yet, bettors should anticipate a semi-quiet performance from the superstar wide receiver. He had 130 receiving yards in Week 1, the second-most in the NFL behind Jayden Reed. However, Buffalo has had Hill’s number since he joined Miami. Last year, the dynamic playmaker averaged 70 receiving yards per game in the two matchups against the division rivals, totaling 82 or fewer in both contests.
Furthermore, Hill has averaged 62.2 receiving yards per game in five regular season and playoff contests against the Bills as a member of the Dolphins, totaling 69 or fewer in all but one matchup (82). While the superstar averaged 112.4 receiving yards per game in 2023, Hill’s average was inflated by two contests against awful secondaries. He had 88 or fewer receiving yards in nearly half of the regular season games last year.
Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)
Fantasy football players likely lost their minds watching Kincaid have one reception on two targets in Week 1. However, expect the Bills to get the second-year tight end rolling on Thursday night. The team lacks proven playmakers in the passing game and can’t rely on Josh Allen to score twice with his legs every week. More importantly, Kincaid averaged 4.6 receptions per game as a rookie despite Stefon Diggs averaging 6.3 receptions per contest in 2023.
The former Utah star had some of his best moments last year against Miami. He had 11 receptions in two matchups against the Dolphins, totaling at least four in both games. Last week, Evan Engram led the Jaguars in target share (19.1%) but managed to pull in only one reception. By comparison, Miami surrendered 5.4 receptions per game to tight ends in 2023, eighth-most in the NFL. Kincaid is prime to have a bounce-back game on national television.
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