Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Bucs vs. Falcons
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Week 4 of the 2024 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business. Here are the top player prop bets for this Thursday Night Football matchup with the Buccaneers and the Falcons.
NFL Player Props – Thursday Night Football Buccaneers vs Falcons
Thursday night, we have a matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite player prop bets for Thursday Night Football between the Falcons and Buccaneers.
All props and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Baker Mayfield Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Mayfield has had an excellent start to the 2024 season. The veteran has 984 passing yards, the sixth-most in the NFL over the first month, averaging 246 per game. He has played well against awful pass defenses. Mayfield is coming off his best performance this year, totaling 347 passing yards against a struggling Philadelphia Eagles secondary. Furthermore, the former Oklahoma star had 289 passing yards in Week 1 against the Washington Commanders.
However, he has struggled in the other two games this season. Mayfield has averaged 174 passing yards per game in the two matchups against non-NFC East teams, totaling 185 or less in both contests. Meanwhile, the Falcons have held quarterbacks to 198.8 passing yards per game, the 12th-fewest in the NFL. Despite facing Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Derek Carr this year, Atlanta hasn’t given up more than 239 passing yards in a game.
Bijan Robinson Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-140)
The former Texas star has struggled on the ground over the past two weeks, totaling 59 rushing yards after averaging 82.5 per game over the first two contests. However, Robinson’s role in the passing game has been consistent. The second-year superstar is averaging 33.8 receiving yards per game, the sixth-most among running back. More importantly, he has had 21 or more receiving yards every contest, totaling 25 or more in all but one contest.
Last week, Robinson had his best performance in the passing game, setting a season-high in receiving yards (46) and yards per route run (2.19). Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have had no answer for pass-catching running backs. They’ve surrendered the second-most receiving yards per game to running backs (60.8), giving up 32 or more in every contest. Robinson should become the sixth running back with 29 or more receiving yards against Tampa Bay this season.
Chris Godwin Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Many called Godwin a bounce-back candidate this year after a disappointing 2023 season. The veteran wide receiver has been outstanding. He has 322 receiving yards, the seventh-most in the NFL, averaging 80.5 per game, totaling 69 or more in all but one contest. More importantly, Godwin has returned to his natural position this year. He has run a team-high 65% of his routes from the slot, averaging 3.2 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data).
Meanwhile, the last-minute additions of Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon have been outstanding for the Falcons’ defense. Atlanta has held wide receivers to 132.8 receiving yards per game. However, they’ve surrendered more receiving yards in every game than the week before this season. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Falcons have allowed slot receivers to average a 25% target per route run rate and 73.5 receiving yards per game in 2024.
Drake London Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Falcons’ passing attack looked awful in Week 1. However, we will chalk that up to Kirk Cousins’ first game since tearing his Achilles against an elite defense. Meanwhile, London has averaged 61.7 receiving yards per game since opening weekend, totaling 64 or more in back-to-back contests. More importantly, he has seen his target share and target per route run rate improve in every game (per Fantasy Points Data). Last week, London had a career-high 12 targets.
Tampa Bay has held wide receivers to only 121.8 receiving yards per game this season, the ninth-fewest in the NFL. However, they’ve played three struggling passing attacks. Yet, the Buccaneers have had problems with outside receivers, surrendering 79 to Jameson Williams in Week 2 and 68 receiving yards to Courtland Sutton in Week 3. Meanwhile, London had 172 receiving yards in his last game against Tampa Bay despite having Desmond Ridder under center.
Cade Otton Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Otton is far from an elite tight end. However, the third-year pro has had eight or more targets in back-to-back games for the first time in his career, totaling at least 47 receiving yards in both contests. Furthermore, he has averaged 26 receiving yards per game this season despite having five total yards over the first two weeks. Last year, Otton averaged 29.5 receiving yards per game in the two contests against the Falcons.
More importantly, the young tight end will see a healthy target share with Trey Palmer (concussion) and Jalen McMillan (hamstring) out for Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Falcons have surrendered 38.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends, giving up 41 or more in all but one contest. While Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the focal points of the passing attack, Otton should have no trouble totaling 30 receiving yards in this game.
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