Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Patriots vs. Jets
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. In this series, we break down Mike Fanelli’s five favorite player prop bets for the upcoming primetime NFL matchup of the week. Kicking off Week 3, we have a Thursday Night Football matchup as Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets take on the New England Patriots. This game kicks off Monday Night at 8:15 PM, EST.
Week 2 of the 2024 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.
Player Prop Bets – Thursday Night Football
Thursday night, we have a matchup between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.
All props and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Stevenson has been a star over the first two weeks of the season. The former Oklahoma star has averaged 100.5 rushing yards per game, totaling 81 or more in both contests. He has been the lead guy in New England’s backfield, playing 78% of the snaps in Week 1 and 72% last week. Furthermore, Stevenson had 78.1% of the team’s backfield rushing attempts two weeks ago and 63.6% in Week 2. His 201 rushing yards are the fifth-most in the NFL.
The former Oklahoma star has averaged 65 rushing yards per game in two career matchups against the Jets in New York despite playing 65% or less of the snaps in both contests. Stevenson’s 46 rushing attempts have accounted for 36.5% of the Patriots’ offensive plays this year. Meanwhile, the Jets have struggled to slow down running backs, giving up 229 rushing yards to running backs, the ninth-most in the league. Don’t be surprised if Stevenson has over 100 rushing yards against New York.
Breece Hall Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)
While the Jets offense will be better with Aaron Rodgers under center this season, Hall will continue to have a significant target share out of the backfield. The former Iowa State star had 76 receptions in 2023 (4.5 per game), the most among running backs. Yet, he is on pace to break that average this year. Hall is averaging six receptions per game, totaling five in Week 1 and seven last week. Despite rookie Braelon Allen looking explosive, this backfield is still absolutely Hall’s.
Despite being fourth on the team in routes run (20), the superstar has a 40% target per route run rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Hall is also third on the team in receiving yards market share (24%), behind Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. His 24% market share ranks third among running backs this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots surrendered five receptions to the Cincinnati Bengals running backs in Week 1 and five to Zach Charbonnet in Week 2.
Antonio Gibson Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
New England leaned heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1, with Gibson coming off a minor injury. However, both Patriot running backs were outstanding against the Seattle Seahawks last week. Gibson had 11 rushing attempts for 96 yards in Week 2 after totaling 18 yards on seven attempts in the season opener. Unfortunately, he hasn’t gotten consistent touches in his career. Yet, the former Memphis star has been productive when given an opportunity.
After starting his career as the featured guy, Gibson became an afterthought in Washington. He has had eight or more rushing attempts in 40 of 63 career games, totaling at least 22 yards in every contest. Furthermore, the explosive runner has had 22 or more rushing yards in 42 of 47 career games with at least six rushing attempts (89.4%). The Patriots have a limited passing attack. Expect Stevenson and Gibson to be the focal point of the offense.
Allen Lazard Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)
Many were shocked when Lazard had six receptions on nine targets for 89 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. Unfortunately, fantasy football players overpaid for him off the waiver wire. The veteran had only two receptions on four targets for 11 receiving yards last week. However, bettors should love Allen over 2.5 receptions on Thursday night. Last year, he had three receptions on five targets in his only matchup against the Patriots.
Furthermore, the veteran had six receptions on eight targets with the Green Bay Packers in the 2022 matchup against New England with Aaron Rodgers under center. More importantly, the Patriots have given up the most receptions (16) and targets (20) to slot receivers this season. Lazard has run 54.5% of his routes from the slot over the first two weeks, the most on the team. Rodgers likely targets Lazard at a higher-than-usual rate, with Garrett Wilson facing Christian Gonzalez.
Hunter Henry Over 3.5 Receptions (+100)
New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has been outstanding for Henry. His offense features the tight end position. Last year, the Cleveland Browns’ tight ends accounted for 30.7% of the team’s receptions per game (6.4) and 27.8% of their targets per game (9.8), with Van Pelt calling plays. Meanwhile, Henry leads the Patriots in routes run (53), route participation (86.9%), targets (14), and target per route run rate (26%). Rhamondre Stevenson and K.J. Osborn are second on the team, with eight targets each.
Henry had 42 receptions in 14 games last season, averaging three per game. He had four or more receptions in only 35.7% of the contests. However, the veteran has been the focal point of the passing attack in 2024. Henry was unstoppable in Week 2, totaling eight receptions on 12 targets, accounting for 53.3% of the Patriots’ receptions and half of the targets. Meanwhile, the Jets have surrendered 4.5 receptions per game to tight ends this season.
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