Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Ravens vs. Chiefs
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
The 2024 NFL preseason is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.
Thursday night, we have a matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.
All odds are from DraftKings as of 9/4/2024.
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-190)
Mahomes is, without a doubt, the top quarterback in the NFL. Unfortunately, the superstar had a down 2023 season for fantasy players and bettors. However, he still averaged over 1.5 passing touchdowns per game last year (1.7), totaling two or more in 56.3% of the contests. Furthermore, the superstar has averaged three passing touchdowns per game in four regular season matchups against the Ravens, totaling two or more in each outing.
Baltimore had an elite defense last season, surrendering only 16 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, the fewest in the league, giving up more than one passing score in only four contests. However, the Ravens have struggled against Mahomes during the regular season, especially in Kansas City. More importantly, they lost several pieces on defense, including defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, in the offseason. Expect Baltimore to have some hiccups on defense early in the year.
Derrick Henry to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-120)
The Ravens have always had a run-heavy offense under John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. However, they failed to run the ball in the AFC Championship matchup against the Chiefs, totaling six rushing attempts out of the backfield. That won’t happen on Thursday night with Derrick Henry on the roster. The future Hall of Famer had 12 rushing touchdowns in 2023, the fifth-most in the NFL among running backs, despite playing for the sixth-worst scoring team.
While most of the public wants to talk about the Chiefs’ offense, their defense got them their second consecutive Super Bowl victory. Kansas City held running backs to only six rushing scores during the 2023 regular season, the third-fewest in the NFL. However, Henry has averaged 5.6 yards per rushing attempt and 1.3 touchdowns per game in six career games against the Chiefs, scoring at least once in all but one contest.
Isiah Pacheco Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Pacheco averaged 66.8 rushing yards per game last year after posting a 92.2 yards per game average over his final nine regular season and playoff games as a rookie. More importantly, the former Rutgers star had 62 or more rushing yards in 57.1% of the regular season contests in 2023. Pacheco took his game to another level in the playoffs, averaging 78.3 rushing yards per game, totaling 68 or more in all but one matchup.
Despite losing multiple starters on defense and their defensive coordinator in the offseason, the Ravens should have a top-tier defense again in 2024. While they surrendered only five rushing touchdowns to running backs last year, the Ravens ranked in the middle of the NFL in rushing yards given up to running backs, surrendering 90.7 per contest. More importantly, Pacheco had 68 rushing yards in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Don’t be surprised if Pacheco has over 80 rushing yards Thursday night.
Mark Andrews Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Unfortunately, Andrews struggled with injuries last season, missing seven games. However, the veteran managed to average 57.9 receiving yards per game in the nine contests he played at least 20% of the offensive snaps. Andrews has averaged at least 50.1 receiving yards per game every year of his career since his rookie campaign. More importantly, the star tight end had 63 or more receiving yards in half of the games last season despite dealing with multiple injuries.
The Chiefs lost some players on defense in the offseason, with L’Jarius Sneed joining the Tennessee Titans and Willie Gay signing with the New Orleans Saints. Meanwhile, Kansas City surrendered 44.7 receiving yards per game to tight ends, slightly below the league average. However, tight ends had 56 or more receiving yards in seven matchups against the Chiefs. Andrews should easily total 60 or more yards now that he is 100% healthy.
Travis Kelce Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Many believe the Chiefs will cut back on Kelce’s role on offense with hopes of winning a third consecutive Super Bowl in February. However, that likely won’t happen until the second half of this season after Xavier Worthy has some experience under his belt, similar to last year with Rashee Rice. The future Hall of Fame tight end averaged 65.6 receiving yards per game in 2023 despite playing through multiple injuries.
More importantly, Kelce was unstoppable during the playoffs. He averaged 83.8 receiving yards per game, totaling 71 or more in every contest, including a postseason-high 116 in the AFC Championship Game against the Ravens. No one should be surprised by Kelce’s elite performance against Baltimore. The veteran tight end has averaged 91.8 receiving yards per game in six career matchups against the Ravens, including 109 or more yards in back-to-back meetings.
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