Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Week 7 of the 2024 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.
NFL Player Prop Bets – Thursday Night Football
Thursday night, we have a matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite NFL player prop bets for this Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup.
All props and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kyren Williams Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-135)
The Rams’ offense has been obliterated by injuries this season. However, Williams has picked up the slack, becoming the focal point in every game. The star running back has 436 rushing yards, the 14th-most in the NFL, despite having his bye in Week 6. He has averaged 90.3 rushing yards per game over the past four contests. More importantly, Williams has had at least 76 rushing yards in every game starting in Week 3.
Minnesota has had a solid run defense this year. They’ve surrendered 432 rushing yards to running backs, the fourth-fewest in the NFL, giving up 72 yards per game. However, the Vikings have had their issues with elite rushing attacks. They gave up at least 78 rushing yards to running backs in 60% of their games since Week 1. Furthermore, Jordan Mason and Jahmyr Gibbs each had at least 100 rushing yards against Minnesota.
Aaron Jones Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Jones has been an excellent addition for the Vikings, playing a massive role in the team’s 5-1 record. The veteran running back has averaged 73.8 rushing yards per game, totaling 93 or more in 66.7% of the contests. More importantly, he has been unstoppable when healthy. Jones left the Week 5 matchup early in the game because of an injury. However, the veteran has averaged 82.8 rushing yards per game in the other five contests.
More importantly, Jones had arguably his best performance last week against an elite Detroit Lions run defense. They had held running backs to 55 rushing yards per game before last week’s matchup. However, Jones had 93 rushing yards and a 6.6 yards per attempt average against the division rivals. Meanwhile, the Rams have surrendered 121 rushing yards per game to running backs, giving up at least 96 in every contest, including 92 to Alexander Mattison last week.
Kyren Williams to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-175)
There has been only one running back to score a rushing touchdown in every game this season, and it’s not Derrick Henry. Williams has a rushing score in every game in 2024 despite opposing defenses doing everything possible to keep him out of the end zone. He and Henry tie for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns (eight), totaling two more than any other player. Yet, Williams has done it in one fewer game.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have done well keeping running backs out of the end zone. They’ve given up only three rushing touchdowns to running backs, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. However, Jahmyr Gibbs had two rushing scores against Minnesota in Week 7, including the first Detroit Lions touchdown of the game. More aggressive bettors should bet on Williams to score the first Rams touchdown (+165). He has had the first Los Angeles touchdown in every game this year.
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Justin Jefferson Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While many had concerns about Jefferson after the Vikings replaced Kirk Cousins with Sam Darnold in the offseason, the superstar wide receiver has been outstanding in 2024. He has averaged 88.5 receiving yards per game this year, the third-most in the NFL. Furthermore, Jefferson has averaged 94.4 receiving yards per game since Week 1, totaling 81 or more in every contest. By comparison, the superstar averaged 107.4 receiving yards on 10 targets per game last season.
Yet, Jefferson has put up massive receiving yards average despite seeing a 15% drop in targets per game (8.5). Meanwhile, Los Angeles has struggled when taking on explosive wide receivers. The Rams have surrendered 142 receiving yards per game to Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jauan Jennings, giving up 121 or more to each wide receiver, including 130 or more twice. Don’t be surprised if Jefferson has over 120 receiving yards (+310).
Tutu Atwell Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Thankfully, the Rams will get Cooper Kupp back Thursday night after missing four games with a high-ankle sprain. Unfortunately, Puka Nacua likely won’t play because of a knee injury. Therefore, Atwell should continue to have a role on offense against the Vikings. The veteran wide receiver didn’t see a target in Week 1. However, he has averaged 66.4 receiving yards per game since opening weekend, totaling 48 or more in every contest.
Furthermore, Atwell has had five or more targets in four consecutive games, averaging 71 receiving yards per contest, totaling 51 or more in every matchup. Meanwhile, Minnesota has surrendered 1,218 receiving yards to wide receiver, giving up 160 per game since the Week 1 contest against the New York Giants. More importantly, 13 wide receivers have had 39 or more receiving yards against the Vikings, including six with over 85 yards.
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