Tough Dynasty Football Decisions: Week 7
The year is 2018. Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson are considered elite dynasty assets. How times have changed. If you are a dynasty manager, you know just how important dealing players like this can be. You also had DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams ranked high in 2018, two guys you would have been sorry to move. Then there’s Derrick Henry(2018 RB18) and Mike Williams (2018 WR31). Dealing something like Beckham and Gurley for Williams and Henry would have had some owners in your league going postal. But it would have been one hell of a trade for you. Hindsight is always 20/20 and dynasty values change so quickly. So whether you are contending and need a piece for draft capital, or you are winless and looking to the future, these are guys you want to move or acquire now before it’s too late. Check them all out here in my first piece with The FF Faceoff in Tough Dynasty Football Decisions: Week 7.
Tua Tagovailoa
Everything in me screams no about Tua Tagovailoa. Despite his stats last week, he was not good on Sunday. The Jaguars defense is awful, and they only put 20 points on them, which was a season-low points allowed for the Jaguars. The offense has averaged more points per game with Jacoby Brissett than Tagovailoa. You did not read that wrong. While his completion percentage isn’t awful, it’s nothing fantastic, and the ball is not moving downfield. Miami has weapons now, but he still struggles to move the offense. I also don’t like the, “he isn’t healthy” excuse, because that is a huge part of the problem. Tagovailoa has a slight build comparatively. This is his third straight year missing time and I don’t think Miami can bring in Brissett to close games as they did with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The problem is, many people see what he is, but I am betting at least one owner in your league will take a flyer on him. Get whatever they offer and move on. Dolphins execs, follow suit, please.
Davis Mills
Let’s be real, the Texans are awful outside of Brandin Cooks. That guy is quarterback-proof. But to the point, Davis Mills has some really intriguing upside. He has great arm talent and has shown glimpses of a prolific passer in his four starts. One of which was against the Patriots. I know you Tua lovers must be going wild, but Tagovailoa and Mills both played New England this year. Mills was 21-29 (72.4%) for 312 and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Tagovailoa was 16-27 (59.26%) for 202, one touchdown, and an interception. Tagovailoa also has better weapons and one more year of experience. One guy is trending up, the other down. Mills will be worth a lot more than Tagovailoa by year’s end. Get him before it’s too late. Deshaun Watson is not going to play for Houston again. I see no real quarterback threat to Mills coming next year either.
Alvin Kamara
The reigning RB1 is really missing Drew Brees. He is averaging a career-low in YPC while averaging seven more carries per game than his career average. He is also near his career-low in yards per catch, while posting by far his lowest catches per game numbers. Other career-low paces? Yards per target, catch rate, 1st downs, yards after contact per attempt, and drops. The stats are overwhelming. Despite just turning 26, Kamara’s best days are behind him, through no fault of his own. Expecting RB1 production from him in the future seems tenuous at best. Get the value now off of last year’s performance. Last year’s one game really. If we weren’t currently experiencing a doomsday of running back injuries, I wouldn’t even acquire him if contending because of his price. I also don’t expect the Saints offense improves much, so the price likely comes down as the year progresses. Sell him quick if you want his perceived value to stick.
James Robinson
The Jaguars may be the worst team in the NFL, but James Robinson is an elite running back. Despite averaging 3.1 fewer attempts per game this year, he is putting up a gaudy 5.5 YPC. He already has five rushing touchdowns in six games, and despite the poor offense around him once again, he is delivering. Nobody in the NFL has done more with less over the last two years than Robinson has. Despite the nonsensical addition of Travis Etienne this offseason, it cannot be ignored that Robinson is a legitimate elite running back, not just for fantasy football purposes, who just turned 23. After Urban Meyer’s next scandal, whoever Jacksonville hires as HC will likely see and understand what he is. I have no fear, after seeing a somehow better version of Robinson in 2021, that Etienne will negatively impact him moving forward. Talent doesn’t lie, and Robinson is overflowing with it.
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DeAndre Hopkins
I get going after DeAndre Hopkins if you are one guy away from a title, but otherwise, the time is right now to move him. Kyler Murray continues to progress, and there are weapons aplenty in this offense. The targets are being spread more evenly. Hopkins is on pace for his lowest target total since his rookie year, and that is including a 17th game (108-target pace). His pace of 74 catches would also be his lowest since 2013. That being said, he is on pace to score 17 touchdowns, which would beat his career-high of 13 in 2017. But touchdowns can be sneaky, and Hopkins turns 30 before next season kicks off. AJ Green, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, and now Zach Ertz all will get looks. Hopkins’ days of 150+ targets seem to be over. Moving him now, while his bloated touchdown numbers make him look very good, makes a ton of sense, unless you have a legitimate shot at a title. The price he can fetch makes it almost mandatory for a rebuilding squad.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
I started Donovan Peoples-Jones in a few leagues this week. That was most certainly a flex. But the numbers backed it up for sure. Beckham has missed 21 of the 48 possible games he could have played for the Browns. He is no longer an elite wide receiver and the numbers agree. His catch rate has been poor since his rookie year. Jarvis Landry has been an ironman, but it’s catching up to the poor guy. Peoples-Jones turns 23 soon and is the guy to own in Cleveland moving forward. He is a lot bigger than both the guys ahead of him, and in a limited sample size, his yards per catch leap off the page. His catch rate is also substantially better than Beckham or Landry’s. So, he catches more balls per target and does more with them than either of those guys. Mayfield’s injury leaves concern for 2021, but moving forward, I see no reason Cleveland keeps Beckham at $13.75 million per year for the next two years, and Landry comes off the books in 2022. Peoples-Jones had a breakout Sunday, but 2022 will be the year to own him.
Rob Gronkowski
I love Rob Gronkowski. He was a revelation in the three games he played to start the year off. He was averaging his lowest yards per catch, but his catch rate was a career-best. And he was scoring on 25% of his catches! Brady loves him, and I completely understand moving for him as a contender. But if you are not a legitimate contender, find one and sell them Gronkowski. His body can’t keep up with his excellence, and more breakdowns seem inevitable. When he plays this year, he is an elite tight end option, but imagining him coming back next year after even more injuries seems implausible. If he does return, expect more time missed with little bursts of excellent play. Contenders will realize what he can do for them, and you could get some youth or draft capital right now for a guy who this offseason may be worthless. Do it, you can root for him still when you aren’t playing against him.
Dawson Knox
Dawson Knox is in his third season and is about to turn 25. If you have read anything I have ever done on Knox, you know I love this guy. And the breakout is finally here, so he is expensive right now. But this is a top three tight end moving forward with Josh Allen. Everything about this guy screamed this breakout was coming, but I don’t think his value has properly caught up. I keep getting ridiculous trade offers for him everywhere. Contenders and rebuilders alike should target this guy. I would move George Kittle for him straight up because of the three year difference, Kittle’s injury history, and the difference in their quarterbacks. Knox is one of the premier tight end assets in dynasty but his price still looks like a top-15 tight end. Capitalize before his price reflects his actual value moving forward. Expect a big extension coming his way after this year, as they are paying him peanuts in year three of his four-year rookie deal.
Dynasty football is the greatest iteration of fantasy football there is. The decisions you make have consequences that echo for years down the line. Knowing when to move a guy is probably the most impactful thing you can do for your squad outside competent drafting. Good luck the rest of the year, and may your dynasty reign for years.
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