Tour Championship Picks, Odds, and Values

Greetings folks.  We’re back again for the final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, let alone the PGA Tour Season.  It all comes down to this.  We’ll be headed southeast to the Peach State for the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club.  A place with tons of tradition embedded and quite the challenge for sure.  This tournament will consist of the top 30 players of the 2021-2022 PGA Tour season based on their rank in the FedEx Cup Standings.  However, it’s important to know how exactly this event will be formatted because it creates some interesting ways for bettors to go about making their lineups and picks.

Tour Championship Format

Throughout the years, the Tour Championship has gone through a vast majority of format changes, but commencing in 2019, the Tour Championship implemented a staggering start. What this means exactly is based on where you stand in the FedEx Cup standings is where you’re going to start come Thursday.  So, in this year’s case,  Scottie Scheffler’s well-earned top finish awarded him the one-seed so he will begin the event at ten under par.  Patrick Cantlay, who put on a show last week in Wilmington, climbed up the ladder to number two and will start at eight under.  And the list goes on from there.

To paint the whole picture, below is the list of players who will be competing in this week’s Tour Championship and what their starting score will be:

East Lake / Course Breakdown

When you talk about a special place, you think of East Lake.  This track has been the continuous home to the Tour Championship since 2004 and the concluding event of the PGA Tour Playoffs for the FedEx Cup.  After being initially designed by Donald Ross back in 1913, East Lake has gone through multiple renovations by Rees Jones in both 2008 and 2016 with one theme in mind.  How much can we test a player’s ability?

Nothing about East Lake is easy.  The track is extremely long, measuring about 7,300 yards with sand galore.  The fairways are as tight as a needle and the Bermuda rough can cause massive penalties for these golfers.  Driving accuracy ranks eighth among courses on the PGA Tour and strokes gained OTT (Off-The-Tee) ranks 16th.  So, the players who generally have been consistent during the year in hitting fairways and setting up well for greens in regulation usually set themselves up for more success than others when coming here.  Additionally, ranking 15^th is SGA (strokes gained approach).  Given the length, the players who are elite ball strikers and hit their long irons consistently well can play out as a huge advantage this week.

With no miracles, I believe only seven golfers can win this week – Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Cantlay, Schauffele, Zalatoris, and Finau.  If you want to, bet them all, all the power to you.  In my analysis, I will give you three whom I believe have the best chance to win with the best odds in place out of those seven.

Here we go:

Outright Winner 

Xander Schaufelle (+750)

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Talk about a guy who absolutely tears apart East Lake.  Considering the staggering start beginning in 2019, in the last five years, Schaufelle finished T1, T7, T2, T2, and T5 gaining strokes to the field in the ball striking category in all five of those starts.  The one start where he captured a victory was the Tour Championship which did not consider predetermined strokes.  He knows this place well and is hungry for a title to close out the year, let alone the $18M bag awarded to first place.  The 28-year-old out of La Jolla, CA (one of my favorite places in the world) has truly been elite all year long.  To be honest, I think we take it for granted how consistent and how good Schaufelle has been since joining the tour in 2016.  Being only four strokes behind Scheffler, I feel strongly about this value and the X-man capturing his second title at East Lake.

Rory McIlroy (+1100)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

McIlory will be starting six strokes back this week.  As I stated prior, I don’t find this to be an issue as Rory already came back from five in 2019.  I like McIlory this week due to his prowess OTT and his ability to strike the ball.  He blows past the field both in shots gained OTT and on approach.  Last week at the BMW Championship, McIlory gained almost six strokes OTT and just over two strokes on approach.  You know the big stick will always be there, but the signs that we have been getting this year with the irons are special.  Not to mention, he has played this track multiple times and has two victories and one second-place finish.  To see Rory above ten to one had my eyes light up green.  I believe Rory is in a great spot to win some folks a lot of dough this weekend.  Excited to see what the seasoned professional out of Northern Ireland has in store at East Lake.

Tony Finau (+2200)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Similar to McIlory, Finau will also be starting six strokes back this week. All roads lead me to the lanky magician this week.  After a first-round collapse (+7) from Finau at the BMW Championship, he was right back to his old self.  He ended up finishing 68,67,68.  And you must think.  If Finau just finished par in that first round, he would have been right there come Sunday.  Now given the tough assignment at hand this week; I do not think a six-stroke deficit is that much.  Remember, in 2019, Rory McIlory was five strokes back and ended up winning this thing by four strokes.  So, it does happen, and golfers can stay hot for four days straight.

Look at it like this, given the staggered start, let’s say for Finau to win he would have to gain 15 strokes to the field.  If we go back to when Tony won back-to-back at the Rocket and 3M, in both of those victories Finau gained at least 17 strokes to the field.  He’s been there and done that twice within the month.  Just something to take into consideration.  Love the value here on Finau and feel like it’s a number I can’t pass up on.

Optimal DFS Lineups

Prices are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

1. Xander Schauffele $12,300
2. Tony Finau $9,600
3. Collin Morikawa $7,900
4. Corey Conners $8,000
5. Sahith Theegala $6,700
6. JT Poston $5,100

Bag Parlay

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

John Rahm T5 & Tony Finau T10 (+458)

FRL (First Round Leader)

1. Xander Schaufelle (+900)

Let’s be great folks.

Trending Now

Fantasy Football Rankings

Top 10 Quarterbacks

Top 10 DSTs

Get a Risk Free Bet of up to $1,500 with your first deposit.  Exclusive offer from Caesars Sportsbook.