Travis Kelce – Dynasty Fallout

Earlier this week, we had an article on dynasty tight ends to sell, and the first one listed was Travis Kelce. If you just looked at the names and didn’t actually read the article, there were two aspects of trading for him or trading him away. Before the surprising Tyreek Hill trade, as a contender, you were trading for him and if you’re not a contender, you were looking to get a nice haul for him. Now, you’re either paying up for him or getting a king’s ransom for him.

Elite Production

Currently, at the age of 32, Travis Kelce has been dominating the tight end position for the last six years and started making a name for himself in 2014 after being drafted in 2013 and never seeing the field due to season-ending knee surgery. Over his career, Kelce has averaged 88 receptions, 1,126 yards, and six touchdowns. 2018 was a career year for Kelce as he saw 150 targets finishing with 103 receptions for 1,336 yards and 10 touchdowns. His second-best year was 2020 when he saw 145 targets for 105 receptions, 1,416 yards, and 11 touchdowns.

Hill was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in 2016 when Kelce really broke out on the scene and led the Chiefs in targets, receptions, and yards, with Hill a close second. This will be the first time since 2019 that Kelce won’t have Hill on the field with him. During that period in 2019 though, Kelce saw 35 targets and had 25 receptions for 351 receiving yards and a touchdown. Extrapolate it over 16 games and Kelce would have had 140 targets,100 receptions, 1,404 yards, and four touchdowns which would have been, on average, the third-best season of his career. 

But there’s something more to this. His dominance has been easily putting him at TE1 year after year. This year could be the year though where he peaks out and does what no tight end hasn’t done since 2018. 

Tight End Records

Kelce currently holds the record for the most yards by a tight end in a single season with 1,416 set in 2020. As for the targets and receptions, Ertz holds them both. He caught 116 of 156 targets in 2018 and I could legitimately see Kelce breaking them both this year with the departure of Hill. Yes, it’s a popular take to sell the aging veteran, but at the same time, if you’re looking to win now and can get him for a decent price, he’s going to be fantastic in 2022.

2022

With the loss of Hill, this is going to not just be the year of the tight end, but the year for Kelce. Losing Hill is huge for the value of Patrick Mahomes in fantasy, as he should be, at the moment, not the QB1 in dynasty or redraft. I’m giving that to Josh Allen at the moment. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are getting a new look as they recently signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a three-year, $30 million contract, and a little over a week ago signed JuJu Smith-Schuster. Neither of these two players are anywhere near Hill’s level, which is why I see Kelce being the WR1 on the Chiefs playing the tight end position.

Always Win Now

Will Kelce break the targets and receptions record that was set back in 2018? I don’t see how it’s not possible, he WILL break it! If you are a contender in a 1QB and  2QB/SF leagues, you’re looking at the very least, a top-five pick in the 2022 rookie draft and maybe more. Players you could be looking at are someone as good as Cam Akers, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore to just name a few. 

The price is very high for Kelce right now. 2022 will be his year of dominance and a player I am willing to buy right now if I’m all in to win my dynasty championship this year.

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