Using NFL Player Props To Gain An Edge In Fantasy Football
How To Use NFL Player Props To Get An Edge In Fantasy Football
Today, I revisited the projections from NFL player props for each player who finished in the top 25 in 2023. Can we use these NFL player props to gain an advantage in our fantasy football draft strategy? I’m always looking for any possible edge when I’m drafting. Even if not, it will be a good exercise to look back on. Let’s take a look.
Please note that some data in their column was unavailable for players with N/A.
| PLAYER | DraftKings Yards Line | DraftKings Rec Line | DraftKings TDs Line | ECR ADP | 2023 PPR Finish | 2023 Yardage total | 2023 Rec Total | 2023 Receiving TD Total | 2023 Games Played |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1100.5 | 95.5 | 7.5 | WR 5 | 1 | 1749 | 135 | 12 | 17 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1300.5 | 102.5 | 7.5 | WR 3 | 2 | 1799 | 119 | 13 | 16 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 999.5 | 95.5 | 5.5 | WR 10 | 3 | 1515 | 119 | 10 | 16 |
| Puka Nacua | N/A | N/A | N/A | WR 101 | 4 | 1486 | 105 | 6 | 17 |
| A.J. Brown | 1050.5 | 75.5 | 7.5 | WR 8 | 5 | 1456 | 106 | 7 | 17 |
| D.J. Moore | 800.5 | 62.5 | 4.5 | WR 20 | 6 | 1364 | 96 | 8 | 17 |
| Mike Evans | 925.5 | 65.5 | 6.5 | WR 32 | 7 | 1255 | 79 | 13 | 17 |
| Keenan Allen | 875.5 | 85.5 | 5.5 | WR 10 | 8 | 1243 | 108 | 7 | 13 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1125.5 | 99.5 | 8.5 | WR 4 | 9 | 1183 | 107 | 8 | 17 |
| Davante Adams | 1300.5 | 99.5 | 8.5 | WR 6 | 10 | 1144 | 103 | 8 | 17 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 1275.5 | 95.5 | 10.5 | WR 20 | 11 | 1216 | 100 | 7 | 16 |
| Nico Collins | N/A | N/A | N/A | WR 58 | 12 | 1297 | 80 | 8 | 15 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 775.5 | 59.5 | 4.5 | WR 28 | 13 | 1342 | 75 | 7 | 16 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 800.5 | 74.5 | 4.5 | WR 33 | 14 | 1152 | 109 | 4 | 16 |
| Deebo Samuel | 725.5 | 59.5 | 4.5 | WR 17 | 15 | 892 | 60 | 7 | 15 |
| DeVonta Smith | 975.5 | 80.5 | 6.5 | WR 13 | 16 | 1066 | 81 | 7 | 16 |
| Chris Olave | 1050.5 | 75.5 | 5.5 | WR 12 | 17 | 1123 | 87 | 5 | 16 |
| Adam Thielen | 550.5 | 55.5 | 4.5 | WR 50 | 18 | 1014 | 103 | 4 | 17 |
| Calvin Ridley | 900.5 | 70.5 | 6.5 | WR 16 | 19 | 1016 | 76 | 8 | 17 |
| Amari Cooper | 950.5 | N/A | N/A | WR 18 | 20 | 1250 | 72 | 5 | 15 |
| DK Metcalf | 900.5 | 75.5 | 7.5 | WR 15 | 21 | 1114 | 66 | 8 | 16 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 850.5 | N/A | N/A | WR 21 | 22 | 1057 | 75 | 7 | 17 |
| Jordan Addison | N/A | N/A | N/A | WR 37 | 23 | 911 | 70 | 10 | 17 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1150.5 | 86.5 | 8.5 | WR 9 | 24 | 1042 | 95 | 3 | 17 |
| Jayden Reed | N/A | N/A | N/A | WR 74 | 25 | 793 | 64 | 8 | 16 |
Notable Players Who Largely Beat Their Totals
CeeDee Lamb
| DraftKings Yards Line | DraftKings Rec Line | DraftKings TDs Line | ECR ADP | 2023 PPR Finish | 2023 Yardage total | 2023 Rec Total | 2023 Receiving TD Total |
| 1100.5 | 95.5 | 7.5 | WR 5 | 1 | 1749 | 135 | 12 |
Lamb had an incredible season and exceeded all expectations. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys had one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league. This was a good example where you could use NFL player props to get an edge in fantasy football. Notably, the Cowboys ranked 10th in total passing attempts. Lamb is considered a top wide receiver in many rankings this year and will probably be part of one of the top offenses again in 2023.
Mike Evans
| PLAYER | DraftKings Yards Line | DraftKings Rec Line | DraftKings TDs Line | ECR ADP | 2023 PPR Finish | 2023 Yardage total | 2023 Rec Total | 2023 Receiving TD Total | 2023 Games Played |
| Mike Evans | 925.5 | 65.5 | 6.5 | WR 32 | 7 | 1255 | 79 | 13 | 17 |
Evans absolutely smashed his touchdown total in 2023. His projection was 6.5 and he got into the endzone 13 times. Evans was the WR 32 off the board in 2023.
Veteran WR Edge
Evans could be an example of an edge with veteran WRs this season. He was projected to have almost 1,000 yards in 2023 and 6.5 touchdowns. Yet he was being drafted as the WR 32 heading into the season. Cooper Kupp is +115 to have 1,000 yards and +110 to score 7 touchdowns. Those are some pretty high projections for a player being drafted as the WR 22 Per Fantasy Pros Consensus ADP. If Kupp is healthy, I expect him to finish as a mid-WR2 at the worst this season. All reports say he is much healthier this season than he’s been in years.
Another WR to compare veteran Kupp to is Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen is a player being drafted 6 spots behind Kupp as the WR 30 Per FantasyPros Consensus ADP, and yet his Vegas totals are much lower. His receiving yards are set at -150 to have 750 yards. His touchdown total is also much lower being set at -110 for him to score 5 touchdowns. Their receptions lines are pretty close with Kupp set at 79.5 and Allen set at 71.5.
I’ve noticed a significant difference in the odds for Kupp and Allen between Vegas and the FFPC high stakes. Kupp’s ADP at the FFPC is 15, while Allen’s is at 36. Since Vegas and the FFPC attract big money, I tend to follow their trends. I believe there’s value in targeting Kupp in your home leagues.
Touchdown Baseline Edge
Touchdowns continue to be hard to project in fantasy football, yet Vegas provides a strong baseline. 53% of the players in the top 25 scored past their projected Touchdown total. Out of the 9 players that went under their projected Touchdown total, only two players missed by more than 0.5. If you are playing in leagues where the reward for receptions is much lower like standard or half-point PPR, touchdowns become much more important.
When creating my own rankings, I suggest that everyone do the same if they have the time. I will be using touchdown projections from 2024 NFL player props as a tiebreaker when setting up my draft sheet. The NFL player props touchdown totals show a slight enough edge to make me comfortable using this approach, especially in formats that have touchdowns weighted heavier.
Thanks for reading! You can follow me on X @superrnova38 or on the Faceoff Sports Network Podcast.
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