Week 16 DraftKings Bargain Bin Plays and DFS Values

Week 16 in the NFL is here a day earlier as Sunday is Christmas Day. We have 10 games on this Christmas Eve slate as we have the opposite of last week where the Sunday slate is six teams. This Saturday slate is fun, yet challenging as we also have a Saturday night game to go along with it. 

Before I break down all of our picks, here are the most notable scoring rules for DraftKings contests: Full-point PPR, four-point passing TDs, three-point bonuses for 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing. Along with having a $50,000 budget to build a complete lineup. Let’s get right into it with these Week 15 DraftKings Bargain Bin Plays and DFS Values.

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QUARTERBACKS

Geno Smith ($5,800)

It was a rough Week 15 for Geno Smith as he struggled for 15.32 DK points. Look for him to bounce back this week in a big way. The Chiefs rank 29th against the quarterback position for the season but are 31st over the last three weeks.

During that span, quarterbacks have averaged 25.52 DK points. It’s also important to realize that two of these quarterbacks were Joe Burrow and Russell Wilson. Smith might not be elite, but with the Seahawks should be chasing points. We could see a 300-yard and multiple-touchdown game in the making.

Daniel Jones ($5,600)

Who doesn’t like rushing upside? Daniel Jones has 583 rushing yards, which is fifth among quarterbacks. Furthermore, he has five rushing touchdowns, tied for fourth with Joe Burrow. The New York Giants offense is a mess outside of Saquon Barkley, but you’re keeping your fingers crossed even with him. Luckily for Jones, he gets a pass-funnel defense in the Minnesota Vikings who outside of Matt Ryan have been giving up 24.93 DK points (22.2 with Matt Ryan) to quarterbacks. I see Jones for his rushing upside with a shot to hit at least 40 rushing yards. 

Gardner Minshew ($4,800)

We are preparing to be without Jalen Hurts and starting Gardner Minshew against the Dallas Cowboys. The last time these two teams met with Minshew starting (Week 18, 2021), he was 19-of-33 for 186 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, good for 15.44 DK points. Not to mention he did this without having A.J. Brown on the team. In light of having Brown, tight end Dallas Goedert should be back in the lineup giving Minshew a slew of weapons at his disposal.

The Cowboys and Eagles have struggled against quarterbacks as of late. With this being a divisional rivalry, would we be surprised to see Minshew go over 20 points?

RUNNING BACKS

Jerick McKinnon ($5,900) / Isiah Pacheco ($5,700)

Oh, how the tables have flipped for the Kansas City running backs. Isiah Pacheco had a dream setup against the worst rush defense last week, but it was Jerick McKinnon who benefitted. Over the last five weeks, the Seattle Seahawks have been giving up big games to running backs, especially those in split backfields.

Tandem running backs have averaged more than 25 points over that span.  Who says the Kansas City duo can’t do the same? These two players I would even consider putting these in a lineup together. 

J.K. Dobbins ($5,800)

Don’t look now but J.K. Dobbins is hot with 28 carries for 245 yards since coming back in Week 14. We all know what kind of player Dobbins is and we get a late version of him just like we did back in 2020. Will Lamar Jackson be back?

Well, at the time of this writing that question is still in the air. If Jackson is back, I like Dobbins even more as Atlanta’s defense will have to try and lock up both players. This is a must-win for Baltimore, so controlling the clock will be more important than ever. Look for Dobbins to hit that 100-yard bonus once again this week.

Jamaal Williams ($5,200)

The Carolina Panthers may be stingy to opposing running backs, but have you seen how hot the Detroit Lions have been? While the Panthers rank near the bottom in yards per carry (21st) and rushing touchdowns (16), they just allowed their first rushing touchdown since Week 9.

This Lions offense is coming in hot and not one I would want to go against right now. This red-hot passing game will get the Lions near the endzone. I like Jamaal Williams punching in at least two goal line touchdowns this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800)

When JuJu Smith-Schuster went down in Week 10 with a concussion, he wasn’t featured from Weeks 12 and 13 after missing Week 11. Many, including myself, were still putting him into lineups due to his low cost. Well, now he’s had back-to-back weeks of 10+ targets good for 162 yards and a touchdown.

To our benefit, he has only gone up $300 which is nuts based on the way he has produced over the last two weeks. The Seahawks have been solid against wide receivers this season, as they have an OPRK of third against the position. Let’s not forget who they have gone against quarterback-wise over their last few games. 

Drake London ($4,800)

Desmond Ridder went early and often to Drake London good for seven receptions (11 targets) for 70 yards. Ridder on the other hand making his first NFL start was 13-of-26 for 97 yards and zero touchdowns. When you’re a receiver who gets a 42% target share that makes up for 72% of the receiving yards, that tells you a lot about Ridder’s trust in London.

Furthermore, it’s comical how low of yardage Ridder threw for but that’s Arthur Smith for ya. I hope this Ridder to London connection continues to grow and gets us the London back we had at the beginning of the season.

Chris Moore ($4,700)

As of this writing, Brandin Cooks has returned to practice as a limited participant and Nico Collins is still sidelined. Even if one or both play, I am still in on Chris Moore who gets the worst pass defense on the season. If you look up pass funnel defense in the dictionary you will see the 2022 Tennessee Titans. I tried to give the Titans credit, but they can’t stop anything besides the run as they are the eighth-best over the last five weeks. The target share (44.75%) over the previous two weeks is nothing to blink an eye at and should be looked at in all lineups.

Jahan Dotson ($3,900)

Two games in a row with a touchdown. Over this span, Jahan Dotson has 15 targets for nine catches and 159 yards. Mind you, this was back-to-back games against the New York Giants. The San Francisco 49ers rank 1st against the rush so this should be a pass-happy game. Dotson should be once again a featured part of this offense who is an easy plug-and-play WR3 for you. 

TIGHT ENDS

Dalton Shultz ($4,200)

If I’m going to be in on Gardner Minshew this week, then you know I’m also taking a Dallas Cowboys. After a down performance against what should have been a good game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, I’m jumping back on Shultz here.

The Eagles have been tough against the tight ends which haven’t allowed a tight end to score a touchdown since Week 9. Furthermore, they’ve held every one of them to 70 yards or less. Shultz missed the Week 6 matchup against the Eagles where the Cowboys’ tight ends combined for 7 receptions for 62 yards and a touchdown. I think he can at least do that.

Dawson Knox ($4,100)

If I asked you what tight end has 15 targets, 10 receptions, 139 yards, and two touchdowns over his last two games who would it be? Well, if you guessed Dawson Knox, you’d be correct. I’m sure you figured it out though, by the way, I started this player but how can you pass him up no, especially at this cost? If Josh Allen is going to lean on Knox like this, I’ll gladly pay the price for the TE9.

Juwan Johnson ($3,800)

Tic-tac-toe for three in a row as Juwan Johnson wraps up my final bargain tight end. It seems like this team or Andy Dalton just doesn’t like Alvin Kamara as Johnson now has seven on the season including two last week, one of which was a goal line catch. All the snow is expected to hit the Cleveland area, as I don’t expect Dalton to go deep in this game. Let’s see if this Kamara kryptonite keeps stealing touchdowns. 

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