Wild Card Weekend Player Prop Bets (Saturday)

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

The 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the season with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business with our first set of playoff games.

Saturday kicks off Wild Card Weekend and the first round of the NFL playoffs. The first matchup is between none other than the Joe Flacco-led Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans. Later, we finish the slate with a contest between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs.

While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Saturday’s Wild Card Weekend games.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Player Prop Bets for Wild Card Weekend

C.J. Stroud Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Stroud likely locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award last week in the win over the Indianapolis Colts. Despite missing three of his top four wide receivers, the former Ohio State star had 264 passing yards and two touchdowns. Stroud averaged 273.9 passing yards per game during the regular season, including 310.8 per contest at home. He has had at least 260 passing yards in six of his last seven healthy games.

While the star rookie didn’t play in the Week 16 matchup against the Cleveland Browns, Davis Mills and Case Keenum combined for 178. That’s more indicative of how poorly the two backup quarterbacks played rather than the Browns’ defense. Cleveland gave up over 255 passing yards in three of their past six meaningful matchups, including 261 to Trevor Siemian in Week 17. The Houston Texans have let Stroud throw all over the yard all season. Don’t expect it to change during the playoffs.

Devin Singletary Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Texans’ backfield didn’t go as planned this year. Dameon Pierce was supposed to be the lead guy, with Singletary mixing in. Instead, the veteran has been the featured guy to close the season. He had at least 65 rushing yards in five of the final nine games, averaging 76.6 yards per contest. Despite having only nine rushing attempts in the Week 16 matchup against the Browns, Singletary had 44 rushing yards and averaged nearly five yards per attempt.

Furthermore, the veteran running back has been an explosive runner lately. Since Week 13, the veteran has had the fourth-highest explosive run rate among 24 running backs with at least 60 rushing attempts (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Cleveland allowed a 9% explosive run rate during the regular season, the highest in the NFL. They’ve given up an explosive run rate of 11.1% or higher in three of their past four games, including the matchup against the Texans.

Amari Cooper Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

When these two teams faced off in Week 16, Cooper set a franchise record with 265 receiving yards, as Houston had no answer for the wide receiver. The former Alabama star averaged 83.3 receiving yards per game during the regular season, including 87.7 per contest on the road. He averaged 70.4 receiving yards per game before the franchise record-setting performance in Week 16. More importantly, Cooper has built a strong connection with Joe Flacco.

Since Flacco became the starting quarterback in Week 13, the star wide receiver has been his favorite target. Cooper averaged 12.3 targets per game over his last three games with the veteran quarterback. Furthermore, he has averaged 121.3 receiving yards per game with Flacco under center, totaling 77 or more in three consecutive contests. The Texans won’t let him go off for 265 receiving yards again. However, Cooper should have no trouble totaling 75 or more receiving yards in the rematch.

Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-140)

The Kansas City Chiefs have been a pass-happy offense during Patrick Mahomes’ tenure. However, they’ve leaned on the ground game more in 2023. Pacheco has had a solid second NFL season, averaging 66.8 rushing yards per game. He started the year slow but has been playing well during the final stretch. Pacheco has averaged 82 rushing yards per game over his past five contests, totaling 89 or more in three matchups. More importantly, his rushing attempts are up.

After totaling 15 or fewer rushing attempts in five of the first eight games this season, the second-year player has had 16 or more in four of the past six contests. Furthermore, he had 16 rushing attempts in the Week 9 matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have had opposing running backs average nearly 20 rushing attempts per game against them during the regular season. The forecast for this matchup will be cold, which should lead to more work for the rushing attack.

Tyreek Hill Under 84.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

This playoff game will be the first time Hill returns to Kansas City as a member of the Dolphins. The superstar was outstanding during the regular season, averaging a league-high 112.4 receiving yards per game. However, he struggled to end the year. Hill averaged 79.5 receiving yards per game over his final four regular-season contests, totaling 82 or fewer in all but one. More importantly, he had only 62 receiving yards on 13 targets in the Week 8 matchup against his former team.

Hill has been playing through an ankle and quad injury lately. While he should suit up for this playoff game, the receiver won’t be near 100%. Meanwhile, L’Jarius Sneed has been one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this year, shadowing and shutting down most opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Unlike Hill, Sneed is getting healthy. He had a full practice on Wednesday despite a calf injury. Expect the Chiefs to do everything possible to contain their former superstar wide receiver.

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