2021 Fantasy Bold Predictions

Welcome to our latest in our series of collaborative articles from the FF Faceoff team. We will be running these weekly collaborative pieces on different content all season long. For this first piece, we’ll be talking about some fantasy football bold predictions in 2021 Fantasy Bold Predictions.

Aaron Jones Finishes as the RB1 Overall

I refuse to believe two things about the Green Bay Packers running back room. First, I refuse to believe Aaron Jones with how talented he is, and with the Packers losing Jamaal Williams, will only play on 51.8% of the offensive snaps again. Second, I refuse to believe that the Packers give backup AJ Dillon the same 40% snap share they gave to Williams last year. If Jones can get up to the 63%-65% level he saw in 2019 (when he was RB3 in 1/2 PPR), he will be seeing about two-thirds of the opportunity in one of the most elite offensive environments that exists in the NFL for running backs.

We know Jones is an elite rusher. He ranked fourth in the NFL with 1,104 yards despite missing two games last year. He ranked seventh in yards created (741 last year) and fifth in true YPC (4.93), both according to Player Profiler. That’s not in doubt. But it’s in the passing game where Jones can truly display his elite receiving skills. Jones ranked fifth among all running backs in target share (14.7%) and number nine in overall targets, again, despite missing two games. The Packers as a team targeted the position at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL last year (22%) and ranked eighth in passing success rate to their backs (50%). Williams received 35 of those high-value targets last year, including four in the red zone. If you take even 15 of those targets and add them to Jones’ 16-game pace of 75 targets from last year, you are looking at a player with the rushing chops of a Dalvin Cook plus the receiving work of Alvin Kamara. If things break right, there is a path to all of that adding up to the RB1 overall in 2021. – Ryan Kirksey @KirkseySports

Gabriel Davis Tops 1,000+ Receiving Yards

Josh Allen took a major step in 2020. Buffalo’s offense revolved around the passing game, where we saw Allen post career highs in passing attempts (572), passing yards (4,546), air yards (2,764), and passing touchdowns (37), which were all top 10 in the NFL.  Stefon Diggs is the clear WR1 in that offense, but who is the WR2? I believe that’s Gabriel Davis. The fourth-round draft pick out of UCF put up impressive numbers in his rookie year, averaging 15.4 average target distance (7th best in the NFL) and ending the year with seven touchdowns which was just one less than Diggs. Some will argue that he is the WR4 in Buffalo behind Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders, however, Davis consistently proved to be that deep ball threat for Allen last year.

Allen completed 45% of throws longer than 30 yards down the field, and Davis will continue to benefit from this. Beasley is penciled in for that slot role, and Davis has proven to be effective opposite of Diggs and provides higher upside than 34-year-old Sanders. Reports from camp are that Davis and Allen have been working together in the off-season, building that chemistry. It’s worth noting in the final preseason game, Davis was targeted five times and caught all five targets for 75 yards and a score. If you haven’t been on the Davis train, it is not too late to hop aboard! In one of the NFL’s best and most pass-happy offenses, Gabe Davis will hit 1,000 or more receiving yards this season. Book it! – Ralph Martinez @LobosFFDen

Marquez Callaway Finishes as a Top-15 Wide Receiver

In an offense with no other options of speed to go along with size, Marquez Callaway will get most of the 50/50 deep shots early in the season. Lil’Jordan Humphries is serving a two-game suspension and Michael Thomas will be out for at least the first six games on the PUP list. This gives Callaway the spotlight for a quarterback who is not afraid to let the passes go. Leagues that give bonus yards to long plays will be smart to go ahead and give the bump up here. Callaway’s 10.1 yards per reception last year should vastly improve with Winston as the quarterback. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin each averaged over 15 yards per reception while playing with Winston. With no competition for targets early on, it’s within reason that Callaway should be pulling six to eight receptions a game. With an average of 5.8 receptions a game at a modest 12.81 yards per target, Callaway is set to post 1,200+ receiving yards. Even once Thomas returns to health, he is hardly considered a deep threat in an offense that should lead the league in deep shots. For a man ranked barely in the top 50 at his position, he could be a league winner at the receiver position. – Bryce Williams @BryceNFL

Mike Evans Fails to Reach 1,000 Yards

I don’t like this any more than the rest of you as I’ve been a Mike Evans fan since day one. The fact that he has accomplished the feat of 1,000+ receiving yards in each of his first 7 seasons is monumental and will be a very tough record to break. In 2020, his 1,006 receiving yards and 14.4 yards per reception were his lowest since 2017. He also came scarily close to ending his streak that year with 1,001 yards at a clip of 14.1 per catch. While Tampa Bay is a team that I believe will heavily rely on the pass all season, Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin each partially put a cap on Evans’ targets. Not to mention a strong tight end group led by Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady and his aging arm are also to blame, as accurate as he may be. I truly hope I am wrong, but as the old saying goes, “All good things must come to an end.”– Benjamin Ditlevson @FFRabbitDad

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Alvin Kamara Does Not Finish as a Top 10 Running Back

Alvin Kamara has been a sure thing in fantasy football ever since his rookie campaign. It’s a new era for the Saints now though and a terribly volatile one at that. With Drew Brees gone and Jameis Winston taking over under center it’s harder to gauge how this offense is going to look. With Michael Thomas missing a bunch of time as well, there are even more question marks. So one might say Kamara is a sure thing. He is the one pivotal piece that isn’t missing time or just gone. However, let’s take a look at how he has racked up his impressive fantasy finishes year after year.

In his four-year career, Kamara is one of the most balanced running backs we’ve seen in fantasy. On average, 52% of his fantasy points come from rushing the ball and 48% from receiving. For fantasy purposes, Kamara’s success depends on his receiving. However, in the five seasons that Winston was the starter in Tampa Bay, his top running backs received very, very, few targets. On average, the RB1 on the team only saw 29 targets per season. The high for that was in 2015 Doug Martin saw 44 targets. Kamara on the other hand has averaged 102 targets a season. If we took the average targets to an RB1 for Winston and give Kamara 30 targets instead of 107 for 2020, keeping all other stats and metrics the same, Kamara’s total fantasy points would drop from 336.3, in half-point PPR scoring, to 230.4. A difference of 105.9 fantasy points. He still would have been the RB7 at the end of the year, so it’s nothing to shake a stick at. But clearly a huge drop-off. Now factor in the clear fact that Alvin Kamara is the clear number one focal point for every opposing defense, especially with Michael Thomas out for the start of the season. With increased scrutiny, a downgrade at quarterback play, and a projected lower volume of targets, Kamara falls out of the Top-10 RBs for the first time in his career. – Phillip Caldwell @DumpsterDiveFF (Creator of the Consistency Score!)

Consistency Score Home

Consistency Score: Running Backs

Consistency Score: Wide Receivers

Consistency Score: Tight Ends

Consistency Score: DST

Ty’Son Williams is a Top-30 Running Back

With JK Dobbins out for the season, I believe Ty’Son Williams is the best candidate to fit his role in the Baltimore offense. Obviously, Williams is not Dobbins and we should not expect him to be, but he does fit the Dobbins role. Last year, Dobbins was the primary running back target in the passing game, catching 22 passes compared to Gus Edwards who had just nine. Williams nearly matched Edwards’ 2020 receptions total in the pre-season alone, catching all eight of his targets. I know people are big on Edwards now that Dobbins is out, but I don’t see Edwards becoming a workhorse back. The Ravens rarely take that approach and I think Williams has the talent and efficiency to outperform his ADP as the RB2 in the number one rushing offense. – Austin Amandolia @FantasyAustin