2021 Team Preview: Carolina Panthers

Thanks for checking out our latest article in our 2021 Team Preview series. We will be breaking down the outlook for teams in 2021, key acquisitions during the off-season and through the 2021 NFL Draft, key losses, and looking at each team from a dynasty perspective. We’ll give you some players to consider buying, selling, stashing, and potential sleeper candidates. Stay tuned for more team breakdowns as we approach the 2021 NFL season. Here is our 2021 Team Preview: Carolina Panthers.

Last year the Panthers went a forgettable 5-11 for the second straight season. The primary bright spot was Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady’s passing attack. Not much else stood high as far as the team is concerned. Last year DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, and Mike Davis all had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. For being a team that was irrelevant for the NFL season, nearly all these players delivered considerably above what their ADP was going into the 2020 season.

2021 Outlook

My prediction for the 2021 Panthers season is 7-10. Last year the Panthers focused heavily on defense in the NFL Draft. This year there was a more concerted effort to address the offense. The notable exception of course is first-round cornerback Jaycee Horn. Look for a hot start with their first three games coming against the Jets, Saints, and Texans. The bye comes in Week 13 after nearly all redraft leagues will have their trade deadline pass.  The team ends the season in brutal fashion, facing the Buccaneers in two of their final three games. The biggest question currently surrounding this team is whether or not Sam Darnold can be the player he was viewed to be just a short few years ago. The middle of their schedule has a lot of tossup games, Darnold being able to deliver and the young defense taking the next step will be keys if their record is to improve upon that mark.

With the remaining time on his contract, coupled with non-first round trade capital paid for him, this looks to be another attempt at getting management what it wants. If Darnold steps up, this team has a bright future and has potentially found the next Ryan Tannehill type of situation. If not, owner David Tepper will keep pounding GM Scott Fitterer to get them a franchise quarterback. In redraft, don’t be afraid to sell your Panthers early in the season. The soft-start, tough finish, and late bye week puts this team in a situation you may want to get out early particularly if your roster has playoff hopes.

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Key Acquisitions/Losses

The offense, even with all the praise on Joe Brady, finished 17th in DVOA. Darnold’s arm strength should open up this offense to some bigger plays. The left side of the offensive line still has questions about them which may leave Darnold more of a best ball flier rather than someone you can count on in close matches or as a weekly starter. With three of their first four picks being on the offensive side of the ball in the 2021 NFL Draft, look for a youth movement at a handful of positions as Matt Rhule aims to get this team younger. The return of McCaffrey will have a significant impact on fantasy on both sides of the ball. Odds are after sustained injuries we will see him utilized less in the run game in order to manage his workload and keep him healthy. That being said, it shouldn’t be more than five carries per game. When you consider his 2019 YPC was 4.3, we may see 20 yards fewer on average in the rushing game this year.

The passing game, however, looks to soak more targets up for McCaffrey. Mike Davis had fewer than 8% of the passing targets which pales to the 19% target share that McCaffrey had the year prior. Christian McCaffrey is still an elite running back who will get his touches in a variety of ways. Look for recent fourth-round rookie Chuba Hubbard to pick up more of the carries in the backfield as well. Hubbard is a decisive runner who runs North and South well. Carolina returns two of their primary receivers in Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. The offensive system is by design one that should keep the floor high but ceiling low on these two wide receivers. Even with Anderson’s history, Darnold, and Moore’s first-round pedigree, Terrace Marshall looks to soak up a majority of Curtis Samuel’s vacated targets. His history of working with Brady at LSU bodes well for him to get an early opportunity, and he’s looked very solid in the preseason. Dan Arnold looks to be the man taking over at the tight end position after years of the Ian Thomas years failed to produce. Rookie Tommy Tremble looks to be the potential future at tight end and a strong candidate for the second tight end job this year. 

Consistency Score Home

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Consistency Score: DST

Dynasty Quick Hits

Buy Low: Sam Darnold

Do you trust the evaluation process of the Jets? Do you trust Adam Gase’s offensive mind? That alone should give you plenty of reason to consider a player who was once known comically for seeing ghosts as if it were an episode of Scooby-Doo. He may not be Tannehill, but he’s shown flashes and the upside is there. You can come up with just about every negative number about this guy from that tenure and he doesn’t have to go ‘mano a mano’ against many other options to be worth it. If his stock goes any lower, then he is going to become a backup or join his draft classmate Josh Rosen in the unemployment line. While I joke, the truth is with his flashes of production along with his low price makes it hard to not go ahead and grab him.

Sell High: Christian McCaffrey

Hear me out. Outside of McCaffrey, who do you sell high on this offense? The remaining players on this team, if viewed as their peak, aren’t likely to yield you much in return. He is the number one on nearly all boards and of each of those, the delta between him and second place is large. With holding him this long, the market has corrected from where it was when he was initially injured during the 2020 season. Dynasty is the only format this applies. Considering the amount of hype that will be surrounding him, you should not have to put out a single offer and will always have room to ask for more than the initial proposal. Teams with McCaffrey should do well and you can devalue your trade partner’s picks substantially in the process.

While this may seem insane, there is no better player on the Panthers with a currently high profile, projected for any potential drop in value to equate to significance outside of McCaffrey. At the very worst, you just keep the top at the position and watch his value dip to top four instead of the present dynasty 1.01. Another reason to sell on a 25-year-old running back is the sixth-most career carries in the league among starting running backs. This is only 33 carries fewer than Chris Carson. McCaffrey’s 2019 average of 44% of the offensive touches will go down, as the top one from the 2020 season comes in at 37%.  So, sell him now while he is hypothetically LaDanian Tomlinson to someone rather than when he becomes Dalvin Cook. The bottom line is it’s almost always worth at least putting someone like this on the trade block. The value is simply too high not to.

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Sleeper: Dan Arnold

Dan Arnold’s is on his first contract of just two years and only $6 million dollars. Initial assumptions are that Arnold would be seen as a sort of ‘bridge’ player, but considering the current lack of capital at the position, it would appear this is more of a good deal on a player to secure a starting role. The former college receiver converted to tight end in hopes to make the league. This would explain the natural hands that Arnold shows when catching the ball. With cornerbacks occupied with the solid group of receivers, safeties and linebackers will be having their primary focus on McCaffrey. This can lead to miscommunications and Arnold being able to thrive 7-15 yards down the field along the middle of the field for the defense. This should allow windows to open along those seams. Training Camp reports have given high praise to Arnold and there’s a decent chance he could be this year’s Logan Thomas or Robert Tonyan. Dan Arnold is currently TE32 in our redraft rankings and can be bought for minimal capital. You might even be able to grab him off the waiver wire.

Stash: Chuba Hubbard

This one is more of a proper handcuff.  If you own McCaffrey and didn’t learn from last year, you simply must be a glutton for punishment. Should anything happen to McCaffrey, Hubbard would step in as the unquestioned lead back. Considering how Mike Davis posted 1,000+ all-purpose yards last year, you should be investing in a player with a higher ceiling due to his athleticism. While we don’t like to project injuries, you should invest in Hubbard a bit sooner if you have McCaffrey. Handcuffs that will not be a committee tend to go sooner in drafts than generally perceived. Hubbard has been a bit forgotten as he initially was looking like he’d come out last year then opting out after seven games. Landing behind the most highly valued running back is far from ideal, but he’s someone you need to look at if you own McCaffrey. 

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