2021 Team Preview: Cincinnati Bengals

Thanks for checking out our latest article in our 2021 Team Preview series. We will be breaking down the outlook for teams in 2021, key acquisitions during the off-season and through the 2021 NFL Draft, key losses, and looking at each team from a dynasty perspective. We’ll give you some players to consider buying, selling, stashing, and potential sleeper candidates. Stay tuned for more team breakdowns as we approach the 2021 NFL season. Here is our 2021 Team Preview: Cincinnati Bengals.

2021 Outlook

Quite a bit of roster turnover can be seen when looking at the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals versus the 2020 roster. The Bengals started off fast under No. 1 overall draft pick quarterback Joe Burrow, competing in one-score games throughout the first four weeks of the 2020 season. Even after a brutal 27-3  loss within the division to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5, Burrow kept the Bengals in one-score games three times, including an upset win at home over the Tennessee Titans. Unfortunately, the season fell apart in Week 11 when Burrow suffered a torn ACL against Washington. Prior to his season-ending injury, Burrow ranked second in passing attempts per game, averaging 40.4 attempts but was given only an 82.5 percent protection rate that resulted in the rookie delivering a 34th-ranked pressured completion percentage (25%) due to facing continuous pressure. Contrary to popular belief, the Bengals bolstered both their offensive and defensive lines this offseason, hoping to increase their effectiveness in the trenches to unlock what has the potential to be a top-ten offense in 2021.

Key Acquisitions/Losses

Veteran wide receiver A.J. Green left Cincinnati this offseason and signed a deal with the Arizona Cardinals, creating the opportunity to draft Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Running back Giovani Bernard and wide receiver John Ross also left openings within the offense for Bengals head coach Zac Taylor to address and repair. An even bigger exodus of talent happened on the defensive unit, with Carl Lawson and Mackenzie Alexander trading the Queen City for New York City, while long-time defensive tackle Geno Atkins‘ departure drastically downgraded Cincinnati’s defensive line.

Two of Cincinnati’s highest free-agent contracts were awarded to defensive players this offseason, signing All-Pro defensive end Trey Hendrickson from the New Orleans Saints to a four-year, $60 million contract after he recorded an impressive 13.5 sacks and 12 TFLs for the Saints in 2020. Former Dallas Cowboys cornerback Chidobe Awuzie signed the other lucrative defensive contract, earning a three-year, $21.8 million deal to fill the void left by Mackensie Alexander‘s return to Minnesota. Another important free agent signing was defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi from the Cleveland Browns, as the 27-year old accounted for 46 tackles and 2.5 sacks across 15 games last season to earn a one-year, $6.2 million contract with the Bengals. Ogunjobi’s presence alongside Hendrickson should markedly improve Cincinnati’s lackluster pass rush that ranked 31st in pass protection defensive efficiency last season.

Much to Burrow’s liking, the Bengals front office spent $7.5 million to sign veteran tackle Riley Reiff to a one-year deal, upgrading the right edge of the offensive line. His durability is extremely valuable, especially considering second-year left tackle Jonah Williams has hardly been able to stay on the field with an injury history dating back to his rookie season in 2019. With Williams returning at full strength in 2021, a pair of healthy tackles should reduce the pressure Burrow experienced during his rookie campaign. Even the interior of the offensive line was addressed, as the Bengals drafted Clemson guard Jackson Carman in the second round to potentially supplant Michael Jordan at left guard. Not only will Burrow benefit from a cleaner pocket but running back Joe Mixon will be afforded bigger running lanes due to less stacked boxes with an improved offensive line and a trio of highly talented wide receivers.

The fifth overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft was LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who reunites with Burrow after the two set the College Football Playoff ablaze with a decisive championship victory over Clemson in 2019. The phenomenal rookie wideout joins Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, two wideouts who proved their value by eclipsing 100 targets each to finish as WR3s in 1/2 PPR formats during the 2020 season. Cincinnati designed most of their passing plays with 11 personnel, meaning three-wide receiver sets, with Higgins and Boyd both recording a 55 percent success rate or higher when targeted, whereas Green averaged just a 45 percent success rate with only six fewer targets (104) than Boyd. Chase’s presence will force defenders to spread thin, which could end up benefitting Mixon and tight end Drew Sample the most. Sample saw 53 targets in his second year and posted a 75.5 percent catch rate with only one touchdown. He is due for positive touchdown regression in 2021 on an improved offense, while Mixon has less competition for touches with the departure of Bernard to Tampa Bay. An RB1 fantasy season hinges on Mixon’s health and durability, which flared up numerous times to limit the talented running back to just six games in 2020.

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Dynasty Quick Hits

Buy Low: Tee Higgins

All of the Chase hype has shrouded Higgins and the impressive workload he produced during his rookie season. The 22-year old led the Bengals with 84.1 air yards per game compared to Boyd’s 65.1 air yards per game. This resulted in Higgins averaging 8.5 yards per target (YPT) which yielded slightly higher fantasy points per target (1.82 FPPT) to outpace Boyd (7.6 YPT/1.75 FPPT) in both metrics. There were a couple of bad drops that would’ve elevated Higgins into WR2 territory but that shouldn’t cause much concern, particularly for his dynasty value. Higgins is currently going as the WR18 with an ADP of 39 in dynasty start-ups, which is low enough to return good value for the next two to three seasons as he develops his own skillset while building chemistry with Burrow.

Sell High: Tyler Boyd

There are quite a few fantasy managers that could upgrade one of their Flex positions, which is exactly how to package Boyd in a dynasty trade. When attempting to sell Boyd in trade discussions, focus on the following metrics. Primarily running shorter routes out of the slot, Boyd commanded a 20.9 percent target share to edge out Tee Higgins (20.2 TGS%) and saw five more red zone targets. This is important because red zone targets are more valuable and highly sought after by fantasy managers. If they need any further convincing, consider Boyd is only 26 years old and averaged 15.4 targets per snap, outpacing Higgins in yet another metric that highlights Boyd’s high usage and low depth of targets as a slot receiver. It might be good enough to keep him until quickly realizing that he will become the definitive third option in the offense with the signing of Chase. This is understood by the fantasy community, as his WR37 ranking in dynasty leagues reflects the distrust sowed by Chase. Securing a 2022 second-round pick for Boyd is a good investment for any fantasy manager looking for an injection of youth and opportunity on their roster. Boyd still has solid value but could quickly fade to a Flex/WR4-tiered player with Higgins and Chase absorbing targets and Mixon being fed more touches with a reconstructed offensive line.

Sleeper: C.J. Uzomah

Cincinnati Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah suffered an early-season injury in 2020 that paved the way for Sample to see 53 targets. The veteran tight end stands two inches taller and is 12 pounds heavier than Sample, meaning he could easily wind up being the featured tight end when the Bengals run 11 personnel, meaning one tight end and one running back paired with three wide receivers.  Sample certainly has more chemistry with Burrow but it was cut short at eight games due to Burrow’s injury. Uzomah is being totally written off as the TE50 in dynasty start-ups but could split or even see more targets than Sample despite being older and coming off of a torn Achilles. He’s only 28 years old and proved extremely durable during a surge in usage across 2018 and 2019, where Uzomah totaled 104 targets and five touchdowns. Pick him up off of waivers to add depth or acquire a good trade candidate, assuming Uzomah can produce a couple of big weeks in what could be a top-ten passing offense in 2021.

Stash: Samaje Perine

One of the more underrated dynasty stashes is running back Samaje Perine. The 25-year old is built like a diesel truck and averaged 4.8 YPC during Joe Mixon’s intermittent yet frequent injuries in 2020.  Perine proved extremely efficient with his limited target share, hauling in 11 of 12 passes for 66 yards. Another year in Zac Taylor’s system should provide stability for Perine, something he has lacked since entering the league as a fourth-round pick by Washington in 2017. Injuries are a major part of football and Mixon showed lingering foot issues that may or may not flare up again in 2021. Perine is essentially free on dynasty waiver wires as the RB102 but finds himself with much more upside than Jordan Howard (RB103) and much less competition for touches compared to a crowded running back by committee (RBBC) approach in Philadelphia. Perine is the quintessential stash prospect available on nearly all waiver wires in dynasty leagues.