Thanks for checking out our latest article in our 2021 Team Preview series. We will be breaking down the outlook for teams in 2021, key acquisitions during the off-season and through the 2021 NFL Draft, key losses, and looking at each team from a dynasty perspective. We’ll give you some players to consider buying, selling, stashing, and potential sleeper candidates. Stay tuned for more team breakdowns as we approach the 2021 NFL season. Here is our 2021 Team Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers.
2021 Outlook
Nine months ago the Steelers looked like a force to be reckoned with based on their record. After starting the season 11-0, they lost four out of their last five games to then get knocked out of the playoffs in the first week to the Cleveland Brown. While their record presented a good team, their on-field action was hit-or-miss last season, as they struggled in a one-dimensional pass-heavy offense. In 2021, they return with a top running back prospect in Najee Harris, who could bring life to their running game and open up the passing options. However, there are still many questions for the Steeler’s 2021 path.
The Steelers are currently projected for an 8-9 season and have one of the toughest schedules in the league. In the first four weeks, they face Buffalo, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and Green Bay. They end the season against Tennessee, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Baltimore. Needless to say, I expect the Steelers to be in a lot of shootouts this year, likely playing from behind in many situations. This could be positive for fantasy owners of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, and Diontae Johnson, but could make for a frustrating season for Steelers fans.
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Key Acquisitions/Losses
Everyone is aware of Pittsburgh’s first-round draft pick Najee Harris. The former Alabama running back concluded his college career with two 1,000-yard rushing seasons, netting over 3,000 yards from scrimmage and 50 total touchdowns in his final two seasons. He averaged 6.0 YPC and clearly has the talent to be a fantasy superstar. The main question mark on my radar is if the offensive line can support his rushing ability.
The Steelers enter into 2021 with a new offensive line after finishing last in rushing in 2020. Time will tell the impact of these changes, but if the preseason is any indicator, it may be another tough year, with Pittsburgh only breaking 100 rushing yards once in four games. And there has been continued uncertainty in the line throughout the preseason with The Athletic reporting continued positional shifts and players recovering from injuries. Needless to say, there are more questions than answers with the offensive line.
What is also notable is the depth the Steelers have at running back. After the 53-player roster cut, Pittsburgh comes away with five running backs and two fullbacks, including veterans Benny Snell Jr., Anthony McFarland Jr., Jaylen Samuels, and Kalen Ballage. Say what you will about those players, but they are all solid runners with talent. None of them are expected to overtake Harris as the workhorse back, but they definitely could take touches away from Harris, especially if the Steelers are focused on preserving their first-round talent. The combination of the Steelers’ running back depth and uncertainty on the offensive line push me to use cation when projecting Harris’s immediate fantasy impact.
All in all, the Steelers look poised to have a similar season to 2020 for fantasy purposes. They will be a decent source of wide receiver talent, but their running game looks poised to struggle despite the talent of Harris. And I wouldn’t turn to them for quarterback talent either. I’ve heard the argument floating out there that if the Steelers can have three top 30 WR, why isn’t Ben Roethlisberger a top 10 quarterback? The answer is simple: Roethlisberger doesn’t run. In 2020, 58 quarterbacks had more rushing yards than Roethlisberger and in today’s fantasy leagues, rushing quarterbacks are a must-have. Look to the Steelers to provide your team with wide receiver depth and look to the future for their running backs.
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
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Dynasty Quick Hits
Buy Low: JuJu Smith-Schuster
There is a common theme in the “buy low, sell high” category of this post in the Pittsburgh receiving core. It is challenging to identify a true buy-low candidate in this offense as every relevant position player should come at a cost based on their talent and the overall efficiency of this offense. But when I read other people covering Pittsburgh there is a common trend. Fantasy owners are very human in that they like shiny new objects. And in Pittsburgh, those objects are in the form of Johnson and Claypool.
Admittedly, these are two young, exciting receivers and deserve the hype. But Smith-Schuster is still a relevant fantasy wide receiver that can be bought at a discount right now. Last season he ended as WR12 and averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game. He scored at least 15 points in nine of his 16 games, showing the level of consistency in his play. He also had four games with at least 20 points, showing he still has the ceiling you want in a wide receiver. He is currently going at WR26 and at $7.6 in salary cap leagues. His ADP is currently 15 slots lower than Johnson, who is also going about $6 more than Smith-Schuster. If you’re looking for value out of Pittsburgh, look no further than Smith-Schuster.
Sell High: Diontae Johnson
Johnson has been one of the more hyped players of the preseason. As discussed above, his ADP is 57, going at WR21. Again, these decisions are hard because the Steelers offense is so stacked, but if I had to pick a sell-high candidate it’s Johnson. For me, this decision is a mixture of personal preference and long-term strategy. Let’s be honest, Johnson received double-digit targets in 10 of the 13 games where he played all four quarters and ranked 6th in targets in 2020. That level of volume is enough to establish most receivers as a fantasy-relevant star.
However, out of the top 20 receivers in targets in 2020, 12 had fewer targets than Johnson but more fantasy points. This argument cuts both ways. On one hand, it reminds us that usage is only one relevant aspect of fantasy stardom, but efficiency and scoring potential is another. On the other hand, it leads to the obvious conclusion that if Johnson plays a full 17-game season, his target share is enough to make him a WR1. For me, the jury is still out on Johnson, and Pittsburgh has so many weapons that they remind me of the Patriots backfield. You know someone will have a good game, but guessing who is nearly impossible.
I think the potential of Johnson is enough to entice other fantasy managers to give up a solid wide receiver that is more proven or a young running back with upside. This is where the strategy portion comes in. Johnson is the perfect candidate for a trade where you can find upside elsewhere while also building your team for the future. Especially if there’s a team in your league in a “must-win” mindset, there’s value to be won by offering up Johnson.
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Sleeper: Chase Claypool
Again, in many ways, we are splitting hairs because of the talent in this offense, but I believe Claypool is being disrespected this year. No, he may not exactly be a “sleeper”, but after what he did last year, he’s not getting the credit he deserves. His current ADP is just outside the top 30 and he is largely seen as the WR3 in this offense. By comparison, he finished as WR23 in his rookie season and it is likely he will take a step forward in 2021. Maybe not with his crazy touchdown numbers, but in targets, yards, and overall involvement in this offense. There is certainly an argument that he benefited from Johnson’s absence, but Claypool also proved to be a more efficient receiver and a common deep threat for the Steelers. Last year, Claypool averaged nearly 14 yards per catch and eight yards per target, compared to 10 and six for Johnson, and nine and seven for Smith-Schuster. When looking at air yards, Claypool finished with 1,500 total air yards when targeted, compared to 900 for Smith-Schuster and 800 for Johnson. That’s nearly 13 air yards per target, showing that when Claypool gets it, he gets it in chunks.
Stash: Pat Freiermuth
I watched highlights for every preseason game and kept a list of the players who caught my eye. The 22-year old rookie out of Penn State made that list and is someone I will be tracking throughout the 2021 season. Pat Freiermuth had two preseason appearances, going three for 25 yards on four targets. That’s not a lot of data to make projections or to work with at all. During his last year at Penn State, Freiermuth played four games, going 23 for 310 yards, averaging 13.5 YPR. What I took away from Freiermuth’s limited preseason snaps is that he is an aggressive player and a prominent end-zone target. I take his limited snaps as a signal that Pittsburgh likes him as their future starting tight end. The combination of the Steelers having three receivers with top 30 potential and Eric Ebron still being there, pushes Freiermuth to a stash position. He is clearly their future at the tight end position and can easily slide into a TE1 once the role is his.
Dynasty Buys and Sells
Dynasty Football Sells: Quarterbacks
Dynasty Football Buys: Running Backs
Dynasty Football Sells: Running Backs
Dynasty Football Buys: Wide Receivers
Dynasty Football Sells: Wide Receivers
Dynasty Football Buys: Tight Ends
Dynasty Football Sells: Tight Ends
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