2022 NFL Free Picks: Week 3 Best Bets
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The summer is officially over, football season is in full swing and Autumn is here. To quote the NFL Films song, “The Autumn wind is a Pirate, blustering in from sea, with a rollicking song, he sweeps along, swaggering boisterously.” The NFL season is also a Pirate, ruthless, cunning, and unpredictable. Whether it’s betting or Fantasy Football, it’s never easy and always a grind to success.
Our record on the year is now 7-6 on sides and a paltry 0-4 on totals, for a combined record of 7-10. The NFL is truly a game of inches and if Justin Fields’ run had been ruled a touchdown (which it was) we go 3-3 last week and not 1-5. There is a ton of season left, we are onto Week 3. You can check all my picks and records on Tallysight here.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: Over 53
I have been poor on totals so far so you may want to crosscheck with some of my colleagues here at Faceoff Sports Network who are doing quite well with them, but I think this is a good over. The Buffalo offense has been on fire in their last four games going back to the NFL playoffs last year averaging 39 points per game. The Bills also might be missing key parts of their secondary in this game including star safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. That’s not what you want when you are facing the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If Buffalo hits their average of 39, the Dolphins only need 15 points to push this one over. We could see 60+ points in this game. Bills and the over teaser seems solid.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Colts +5.5
This feels dirty taking the Colts who have looked awful in their first two games tying Houston and getting trashed by Jacksonville last week. Kansas City almost feels like a no-brainer with the way they’ve opened the season beating the Cardinals and Chargers and how bad the Colts have looked. However, in the NFL you must expect the unexpected. The Colts are still a good football team, are well coached with a very good offensive line, sound defense, and a proven veteran quarterback. Not to mention they have Jonathan Taylor who is a game breaker. I think the Colts bounce back here and although they may not get the win, they will keep this one close enough to cover. If the Colts get smoked, forget everything positive I said about them!
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
The Pick: Titans +2, Over 45
The Titans were trounced last week by the Bills losing 41-7, but this football team is better than their 0-2 record indicates. The Raiders are also 0-2 losing two close games to the Chargers and Cardinals. Both teams are motivated, but the Titans are home, better coached, and have the “King” Derrick Henry who is due for a big game. The Titans are 22-3 when Henry runs for 100 yards and I expect that to happen on Sunday. Look for a fairly high-scoring game to push this one over the modest number. Take the Titans on the moneyline as well and play Treylon Burks in DFS.
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears
The Pick: Bears -2.5
These teams are fairly similar with underwhelming offenses and defensive-minded Head Coaches. The difference here to me is Justin Fields’ playmaking ability and the Bears being at home. The Bears may barely squeak this one out but all we need is to win by a field goal. I have the Bears winning by four so this one just fits the system.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Pick: Packers +1, Under 42
Tampa Bay is still missing multiple offensive linemen, will not have Mike Evans in this game and even Julio Jones and Russel Gage are questionable. Chris Godwin will miss yet another week. Tom Brady’s offense is severely depleted and is averaging just 19.5 points through the first two weeks. The Packers offensive weapons aren’t much better but at least their offensive line and receiving core are relatively healthy. This should be a defensive battle, but I’ll take the Packers in a close game. A key trend in this in this matchup is teams that start their first two games on the road are 33-60 in week three coming back home. Tampa opened the season traveling to Dallas and New Orleans.
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
The Pick: Rams -3.5
This one fits the system as I have the Rams winning this game by about 8 points. Sean McVay is a real sharp, Kliff Kingsbury is not. The Rams defense is vastly superior to the Cardinals. Matt Stafford has Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson while Kyler is still missing DeAndre Hopkins. Simple and easy, give me the Rams.
San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos
The pick: Denver +1.5
If it wasn’t for the ineptness of Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett, Denver would be 2-0. I certainly have some trepidation backing a team coached by him, but this team is just too talented on both sides of the ball not to back. Russell Wilson wasn’t great last week, but Jerry Jeudy got hurt and KJ Hamler didn’t play at all. Both will be back this week. The 49ers are again led by Jimmy Garopolo which seems to have made everyone on the 49ers feel better about things. Both defenses are sound, but I like this matchup for the Denver defense against Jimmy Garoppolo. Wilson and this Denver defense will take care of business and pull out the win.
Thanks for reading, all the best this week and enjoy the games. If you have any questions you can ask me anything on Twitter @FantasySavvy.
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