NFL Player Prop Bets: Steelers vs. Browns

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Last week I had another solid performance, going 3-2 on my prop bets. Mike Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire easily hit the over on their yardage props, while Justin Herbert threw three touchdown passes despite the rib injury. However, Travis Kelce and Josh Palmer missed the over on their reception props by a combined three receptions. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.

Tonight we have a matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.

All props are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nick Chubb Over 84.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Despite consistently seeing a stacked box, the veteran running back has averaged 5.3 yards per rushing attempt in his career. Furthermore, Chubb has averaged at least 88.9 rushing yards per game every year since his rookie season. More importantly, he is second in the NFL with 228 rushing yards over the first two weeks of the year, totaling at least 87 yards in both games. Meanwhile, the Steelers have struggled to stop the run this season.

They have surrendered at least 86 rushing yards to running backs in both games, including 118 yards to the New England Patriots duo in Week 2. Furthermore, the Steelers have struggled to slow down Chubb recently. The star back has averaged 75.7 rushing yards per game over the past three matchups against Pittsburgh. All it takes is one big run, and Chubb could hit the over on this prop bet before the end of the third quarter.

Diontae Johnson Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

While the Pittsburgh passing attack has gotten off to a rocky start, Johnson has been one of the more reliable wide receivers this season. He averaged 6.7 receptions per game last year after averaging 5.9 per game in 2019. This year, he has 13 receptions over the first two games, pulling in at least six in both contests. More importantly, Johnson has 22 targets this season, 10 more than any other wide receiver on the team, accounting for a 31% target share.

Meanwhile, Cleveland has a talented secondary on paper. Cornerback Denzel Ward is considered one of the best at his position in the NFL. However, the Browns have struggled to slow down wide receivers this season. Last week they gave up eight receptions for 102 yards and two touchdowns to the rookie Garrett Wilson with Joe Flacco at quarterback. More importantly, Johnson had at least six receptions and 13 targets in both matchups against the Browns last season. Expect a massive target share tonight.

Jacoby Brissett Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-255)

With Deshaun Watson suspended until Week 13, Brissett is the starter for the Browns. He has filled in well, but the former third-round pick is limited. Brissett has only two passing touchdowns this season, tossing one in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers and the other last week against the New York Jets. While his touchdown rate is currently 6.5%, Brissett has averaged the ninth-fewest pass attempts among qualifying quarterbacks this season. Furthermore, he is averaging 30.5 pass attempts per passing touchdown over the first two games.

More importantly, Brissett has thrown two or more touchdowns in only 17.7% of the games in his career. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has held quarterbacks to three passing touchdowns this season, about the league average. However, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 44 pass attempts per game against Pittsburgh, the second-most this year. Thus, the Steelers are giving up a touchdown only once per 29.3 pass attempts. In his 39 career starts, Brissett has averaged 0.6 passing touchdowns and 20.7 pass attempts per game. While the payout isn’t appealing, this prop bet is all but a lock to hit.

Najee Harris Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The second-year running back has gotten off to a rough start this year. After averaging 70.6 rushing yards per game last year, the seventh-most in the NFL, Harris is averaging only 36 rushing yards per game this season. He has 72 rushing yards on 25 attempts, averaging only 2.9 yards per rushing attempt. Furthermore, Harris has failed to rush for 50 or more yards in either game. While many hoped the Pittsburgh offensive line would improve this year, they have struggled to create running lanes for Harris.

Defensively, the Browns have been one of the better teams stopping the run this season. They have surrendered only 114 rushing yards to running backs, giving up 73 yards or less in both contests. Furthermore, they held Christian McCaffrey to only 33 rushing yards in Week 1 as the veteran averaged only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. Given how poorly the offensive line has played to start the year, Harris has an uphill fight to hit the over on this prop bet.

Amari Cooper Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Cooper struggled in the Week 1 matchup against Carolina. The veteran totaled only three receptions for 17 yards. However, he had six targets in the game, played 83% of the snaps, and ran a team-high 27 routes. While his basic stats were awful, a closer examination showed a rebound was coming, and it did. Cooper led the team with 10 targets on his 19 routes run last week against the Jets. More importantly, his yards per reception improved by nearly 50% from Week 1 to last week.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers have struggled to slow down No. 1 wide receivers in the first two games. Ja’Marr Chase picked their defense apart for 129 receiving yards in Week 1. Then, Pittsburgh gave up at least 95 receiving yards to each of Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers last week. After a team-high 11 targets against the Panthers, Donovan Peoples-Jones had only one last week against the Jets. Coming off a strong performance, the Browns should make Cooper the focal point of their passing attack for this game.

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