2023 Early Offseason Dynasty Buys
If you love to start the offseason with a bang or make a splash trade like myself, then I have just the thing for you. My outlook on buying and selling players in your dynasty fantasy football leagues is focused mainly on value. Your team does not have needs, especially this early in the offseason. We are still seven months away from setting your roster for the first time during the 2023 season.
When I buy assets or players, I want to focus on their future outlook. In addition, I want to keep all ranges of outcomes in mind. We always think of the players we are bullish on with rose-colored glasses, which is natural. Additionally, we should consider that there is always a situation where the player’s value bottoms out.
On the other hand, when buying players, I want the probability that their value will increase over time to be greater than the chance of a decrease in value. Maybe a change in their situation, coaching, comfortability in the system, etc. At the root of it all, the players I am looking to buy are all talented. I believe that talent usually shines through any type of situation. Eventually.
Considering every league has diverse market values, not all of my trade suggestions will work for you. Also, consider roster construction and the projected trajectory that your team will follow. These suggestions are to give you specific examples of what I have done or would be comfortable doing. Let’s dig into a few early offseason buys.
Trevor Lawrence
QB – Jacksonville Jaguars
The former #1 overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft is a massive buy for me this off-season in dynasty leagues. I’m sure other dynasty players want to do the same thing. Buying Trevor Lawrence and some of his weapons will be identified as a chalk move this offseason. That being said, I still see the importance of getting in front of the others in the dynasty crowd. Don’t be afraid to buy him now even if he’s expensive, as I see a scenario where Lawrence entrenches himself as a top 5-6 quarterback in dynasty fantasy football as early as next year.
The Doug Pederson hire last offseason was a game-changing move by the Jaguars. Finally, a coach to help Lawrence develop his game and improve every aspect statistically. Lawrence was more efficient with his touches throughout the 2022 season than in his rookie campaign. It is easier to be more efficient and explosive when the Jaguars added Christian Kirk in free agency, got back a healthy Travis Etienne, and saw a resurgence of Evan Engram.
All that being said, you also get Calvin Ridley for the 2023 season. That means yet another weapon for Lawrence to utilize in Pederson’s pass-happy offensive system. We finally saw the flashes of the former #1 overall pick during the 2022 season. I feel confident investing in Lawrence long-term. While this won’t be a cheap acquisition, it will be more than worth it for years to come.
Some trades I could potentially see getting done in Superlex leagues for Trevor Lawrence:
Send: 2 2023 1st Round Picks
Get: Trevor Lawrence
Send: Garret Wilson, Late-2023 1st
Get: Trevor Lawrence
Send: Dak Prescott, 2024 1st, 2023 3rd
Get: Trevor Lawrence
David Njoku
TE – Cleveland Browns
As a proud David Njoku truther, this comes as no surprise. I was actively buying Njoku for the most part last offseason. Once again, buying Njoku will be a great move to make before the 2023 season. I believe in his talent and have had confidence in his abilities starting when the Browns drafted Njoku in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft. With the dynasty tight end landscape, it is always safer to bet on the athletic freaks at the position. He’s always been an athletic specimen, and we knew he was young and raw coming out. 2023 will be his seventh season in the NFL and he’s just 26 years old, turning 27 in July.
The first few years of his career were rocky and underwhelming. I am the first to blame the poor quarterback play, the yearly head coaching change, or maybe it took him a few years to develop into the player he is today. Although he didn’t produce as expected, the Browns doubled down and signed Njoku to a 4-year, $56.75M contract before the start of the 2022 season. Not only did they extend Njoku, but they also traded for Deshaun Watson a year ago. That’s a clear quarterback upgrade compared to the others on the roster at the time of the trade, Baker Mayfield and Jacoby Brissett.
Knowing now that Njoku will have Watson as his quarterback for the foreseeable future and how Watson is known to utilize his tight ends in the past, I am very bullish on Njoku’s career outlook. Throughout the 2022 season, you saw the unique ways Stefanski deployed Njoku in the red zone. Increased usage and more efficient quarterback play will help Njoku’s production rise alongside his dynasty value. I’m excited to see Njoku’s abilities fully unlocked as he and Watson continue to build chemistry. That is something that I want to have a piece of for the foreseeable future.
Some trades I could see getting done in Superflex leagues for David Njoku:
Send: Elijah Moore
Receive: David Njoku
Send: Mid-2023 2nd
Receive: David Njoku
Send: Travis Kelce
Receive: David Njoku, 2024 1st
Future Rookie Picks
As stated before, your team shouldn’t have a direction this early in the offseason. Now is the perfect time to do some early-Spring cleaning on your dynasty rosters. You can either dump players on the back end of your bench or try to move them for assets and to free up valuable roster spots. The 2024 rookie picks are great ones to target right now.
While it might not be a popular opinion, the later-round rookie picks matter and hold more value than you think. You’re probably saying, “The players that you select with those picks are normally a crapshoot, plus the hit rate is low.” You are correct. I never said that we would pick players with those picks you are receiving.
However, I like to use these picks to sweeten trades for other players and maneuver the draft board in the rookie draft. Use these picks as liquidity. Picks are much less likely to lose value than players throughout the offseason. These picks will only accrue more value up until that pick is ultimately on the clock in your upcoming dynasty rookie drafts.
Here is a tactic to try in some of your leagues. I incorporate an Auto-Accept Trade Board. On Sleeper, I update the player’s nickname in correspondence with the ideal price. For example, “Auto Accept – Any 3rd”. Doing this lets other managers know the return I expect for the player, plus it gives them flexibility if they want to move a pick this year or next.
Scott Conner over at Destination Devy put this into perspective on a past episode of America’s Game. He used the analogy of walking into a store. If you see an item that doesn’t have a price tag, will you be more or less inclined to buy that item? If I know the exact price of an item, I am willing to purchase that item if I think the price is right.
With the Auto-Accept Trade Board, I am simply setting a price on the players I’m interested in moving. I am realistic with prices and will be content with any return close to the listed price. If a manager is interested, they will offer the price identified for that player. If managers aren’t interested, then they will just move on. I usually try to pick a price that is a little lower than market value just to ensure I can get a deal done for that player so I can move them off my roster. The goal is to free up a roster spot, gain some liquidity, focus on my overall roster construction, and have some flexibility going forward.
All that being said, buying future picks now gives your roster room to grow. It allows you the flexibility to make trades that wouldn’t be possible by throwing in random players at the bottom of your bench. Now is the time to buy those picks. Rookie picks will only increase in price the closer we get to rookie draft season. Try this out. Use some of the players on the back end of your bench that will realistically never see your starting lineup to load up on future picks. Let me know what you think or comment on some recent trades you’ve completed!
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Here are some deals that I have done so far this offseason via the Auto-Accept Trade Board.
Sent: Donald Parham
Received: 2023 4.07
Sent: Brian Robinson, 2023 4.07
Received: 2023 2.02
Sent: Daniel Bellinger
Received: 2024 3rd
Sent: Ezekiel Elliott, 2023 3.08
Received: 2025 2nd
Sent: Tyquan Thornton
Received: 2024 3rd
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