2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks, Odds, and Values
Greetings folks. We’re back again for the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. We’ll be headed to TPC Southwind in the great city of Memphis, Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Whether you’re into sports betting, DFS, or just an avid golf fan, we’ve got you covered.
Like last year, this year will consist of 3 playoff events. The St. Jude this week, the BMW Championship next week, and finally the Tour Championship at East Lake the following week. Overall, a very exciting time finishing out our 2023 PGA Tour season before heading into the shortest off-season in all of sports.
Last week, the 2023 Wyndham Championship. Today, we’re breaking down the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship. We’ll be getting into my favorite picks, breaking down the odds, and looking for some values. Let’s get into it.
Course/Tournament Breakdown
TPC Southwind is a par 70 and was designed by Ron Prichard in 1987. It was made before the PGA intruded in 2004 to make some alterations. There is water galore here. Furthermore, 50% of the holes at Southwind contain water. Needless to say, you’re going to want to stay out of the drink by any means necessary.
Additionally, the fairways are made up of zoysia grass. This grass is known for its sturdiness and thick mat-like texture where the golf ball sits up real cleanly. The rough will be two and a half inches of Bermuda grass, which can be highly detrimental if you’re not hitting fairways.
Needless to say, there is a huge difference playing out of the rough versus on the fairway at Southwind. One is high levels of unpredictability in the rough where controlling spin can be a tough task. Overall, the track will play very firm and fast given the extremely dry conditions in Memphis this year.
I believe we will see the winner anywhere from 13 to 15 under par. The recipe is simple but quite daunting at the same time. You are going to have to be long and straight Over the Top (OTT) playing out the fairway, having awareness of correct pin positions, and having some elite ball-striking ability. As expected, there’s a reason why most of the top dogs usually win on this course.
Keys for Success
When you think of TPC Southwind, what comes to mind? That answer is none other than ball striking. To be successful at Southwind, the ball striking must be firing on all cylinders. Two main stats highly correlated to success here are strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee.
In addition, TPC Southwind calls for a big-time Tee to Green (T2G) test. Strokes gained tee to green is the sum of all things less putting.
It plays into three categories: Off the Tee, approach-the-green, and around-the-green. The sum of these three stats equates to strokes gained T2G. You don’t always need to be dialed with the flat stick here. In fact, when Justin Thomas won in 2020, he lost strokes to the field on the putting surface. Ultimately, the top ball strikers will be the ones to separate themselves from the rest of the pack and use that to their advantage come this weekend.
Picks
Scottie Scheffler (+650) BetMGM
To be honest, I could not care less about the number this week. At Southwind, you need to be an elite ball striker and find the greens. And this is exactly what Scottie Scheffler does.
In the entire field’s last 36 rounds, Scheffler leads the field in strokes gained tee to green at a whopping 3.47+. The next player is Rory McIlroy at 1.91+. Once again, in the entire field’s last 36 rounds, Scheffler leads the field in strokes gained ball striking at a whopping 2.71+. Needless to say, this is an absurd differential. For what it’s worth, the next player is Lucas Glover at 1.67+.
Overall, Scheffler is just so far ahead of the field in all things that make you successful here. This pick is a no-brainer for me outright and in DFS. Personally, I might parlay him outright and in some flyer parlay plays.
Collin Morikawa (+2500) DraftKings
In this range, there are two players I like this week. Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa. After some thought, I truly believe Morikawa is the correct play. Overall, they are two very similar players in terms of elite overall iron play. However, Morikawa beats him in hitting fairways and overall history at Southwind.
Since, 2020, Morikawa has played here three times and has a T20, T26, and T6. The game is rising too. Additionally, the missed cut at Royal Liverpool means completely nothing. Also, think his around the green and short game gets better every week. Personally, I would love to see Morikawa with some hardware come Sunday for his first victory in some time.
Corey Conners (+6600) PointsBet
At +6600, Corey Conners is an extremely tempting pick. Conners is literally Mr. Fairway. Couple that with his solid tee-to-green and ball-striking game, I will gladly take this price.
Furthermore, he has five-straight cuts made as well. In the field’s last 36 rounds, Conners is seventh in fairways gained and 2nd in greens gained. What does this show us? He takes advantage of constantly hitting fairways. All in all, a recipe for success down in Memphis this week. I love this play and will be hammering it.
Harris English (+8000) DraftKings
If Harris English had not played well last week at the Wyndham Championship, he would not be on my card. However, just the opposite happened. English battled out a tough made cut to go on and gain 5.81 strokes on approach. Could he be making a playoff stride? Not to mention, his course history at Southwind is pretty special. A fourth place, T10, T26, and win back in 2013. If anybody truly knows this place, it’s English.
When I modeled this event out, Harris did not rank particularly well. However, Harris ranked in the T10 in fairways gained. Which is a must at TPC Southwind. A number I cannot pass up on. All things considered, I’ll still be sprinkling some English this weekend with these odds.
As Lee Westwood said, “It’s quite tight. You need to drive the ball straight, although, you know, it does give you opportunities, where it’s not driver on every hole as well. But there is a massive premium on hitting the fairways here. You know, holes like 18, 12, you know, if you’re not in the fairway there and 15, you can make par difficult. You got to drive the ball well and hit the fairway.”
Good luck this week! JZ.
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