2024 1QB Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft – Post-NFL Draft, 4 Round
The long wait is over! Since Sleeper put the 2024 rookies into their system, we at Faceoff Sports Network have run hundreds of dynasty rookie mock drafts. With these mock drafts, we’ve been able to bring you the most accurate and up-to-date dynasty rookie ADP. The best part? It’s not behind a paywall. Don’t go into your dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts without it.
Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft – Post-NFL Draft, 4 Rounds
With the 2024 NFL Draft behind us, we gathered 11 experts to participate in a 4-round, 1-QB dynasty rookie draft. Keep in mind, these rookie drafts are for your dynasty fantasy football leagues. With landing spots finalized, let’s look at what the experts say as we prepare you for your upcoming rookie drafts!
ROUND 1
1.01 Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
For this 2024 class, Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers are tier 1 for me in my 1QB rookie rankings. I love Harrison’s landing spot, where there is a clear need for a WR1 in the Cardinals’ offense, which should bring tremendous opportunity. I also like that he gets to play with a high-production quarterback in Kyler Murray. Harrison is a top-5 dynasty wide receiver, and the expectation is for a 2024 top-12 WR finish. Check out just how high he already is in our latest dynasty fantasy football rankings.
1.02 Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
You probably couldn’t ask for a better consolation prize if missing out on Harrison, as Malik Nabers is an elite wide receiver who excels in so many aspects of his game. Yet, he is still somewhat sliding under the radar with all the hype around Harrison. Realistically, Nabers could be the consensus WR1 in many previous draft classes.
Nabers now lands on the New York Giants. While there are concerns regarding quarterback performance, he has very little target competition. Additionally, the fact the Giants no longer have star running back Saquon Barkley to lean on in the run game and could be forced into a more pass-heavy approach than they have in recent years. We’ll see what happens with Daniel Jones
Nabers has the potential for 150+ targets as a rookie. More importantly, with his talent, he could easily emerge as an elite dynasty wide receiver sooner rather than later.
1.03 Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Odunze is an excellent early pick in dynasty football leagues after the top two wide receivers, despite the fact that he’ll be competing for targets with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Potentially, Odunze could even surpass Allen to become the WR2 for the Bears by the end of the season. Considering Allen is 32 years old adds to the argument.
Furthermore, Odunze has considerable long-term value, especially due to his connection with Caleb Williams for at least the next five years. Personally, I’m not worried about his early competition for targets. Odunze should continue to be a top option in rookie drafts.
1.04 Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
After the top three receivers, this spot in the draft is anyone’s preference. For the most part, you might go with your own team’s needs in this spot. Personally, I went with Brock Bowers for my pick. While Las Vegas isn’t the best landing spot, I am confident that the three-time All-American will continue his success at the next level.
An elite tight end prospect, Bowers is a jack of all trades and a master of everything. He is an elite receiver and dominates after the catch, averaging 14.5 yards per reception in college. Additionally, Bowers seems impossible to bring to the ground. Notably, he has the best-receiving yards after contact (689 yards) in the last 10 years. Second on that list in that category was Sam LaPorta (466 yards), who took the league by storm last season.
Furthermore, Bowers is a red zone and a big play threat, scoring all over the place and racking up 26 touchdowns throughout his time in Georgia. Bowers could be the best tight end prospect ever and getting him at 1.04 seems to be an absolute gift in a 1QB league.
1.05 Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
In a draft loaded with skill position talent, I jumped at the chance to take Williams here. Really, I would have had no qualms about taking him at 1.04 in this 1QB draft on the chance that he is as NFL-ready as advertised. Even assuming I’m rostering a reliable asset at the quarterback position, it might only be a matter of time before the former Trojan usurps whatever incumbent I’m rostering. Could you imagine cruising with Patrick Mahomes for his peak and then transitioning to Williams?
Williams already has all the tools and drops into a position with favorable weaponry. Not to mention, the veteran weapons along with rookie Rome Odunze. If I wasn’t sold already, I certainly am now.
1.06 Brian Thomas Jr, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
I’m in love with the Brian Thomas landing spot, draft capital, and tie to Trevor Lawrence. My pre-draft WR4 is now also firmly my post-draft WR4. This Jaguars team likes to push the ball downfield, and in Lawrence, they have a quarterback who can make every throw.
Brian Thomas Jr’s skill set marries up perfectly here with his elite speed for someone who is 6’3’ and weighs 209 pounds. More importantly, I expect him to produce immediately and look to take over as the WR1 on the team within 18 months. The fact that Zay Jones has since been cut also adds to the intrigue of Thomas being able to see the field early on.
1.07 Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Prior to the NFL Draft, Worthy was my WR4. Landing in Kansas City only solidifies that ranking. The Chiefs plan to bring Worthy along slowly, and that’s great news. Especially for your dynasty league football teams. Keep in mind that Worthy could use some work against man and press coverage. With record-breaking speed and Mahomes as the quarterback, Worthy is an easy selection here.
1.08 Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
With all the elite receivers going off the board by this point, selecting the RB1 in the class was a no-brainer. Brooks got the highest draft capital of any running back and the clearest pathway to a major role. Brooks was the easy choice for me here.
1.09 Ladd McConkey, WR, Las Angeles Chargers
Ladd McConkey could not have landed in a better situation as he is now tied to Justin Herbert and a Chargers offense that desperately needs a difference-maker at the wide receiver position. Specifically with Allen and Mike Williams both out of LA. While the landing spot is intriguing, keep in mind, though, that McConkey does have a slightly riskier rookie profile.
In four years at Georgia, McConkey never broke out as he averaged less than a 20% receiving yards market share every season. Instead, he relied much more on his efficiency to produce, ranking in the top six in yards per route run lined up out wide (2.37) and in the slot (2.84). So, while his production profile is far from elite, I’m banking on his draft capital and the Chargers’ lack of depth to lead to immediate opportunities in his rookie season.
1.10 Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
This may be a slight reach in 1QB rookie drafts, but Daniels’ ceiling is one of the highest of any player in this rookie group. We all know that a rushing quarterback has the potential to be a fantasy football cheat code. But pair him with a hopefully healthy Austin Ekeler, and defenses won’t know which running lane to cover.
1.11 Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills
One of the best possible landing spots for a rookie wide receiver was certainly with the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen. With Stefon Diggs getting traded to the Houston Texans and Gabe Davis signing with the Jaguars, this wide receiver room is wide open. Khalil Shakir has the most experience and the addition of Chase Claypool doesn’t do much for me.
Overall, I’ll gladly take one of the better wide receivers in this talented 2024 class in Coleman. Especially one that profiles as a true X, WR1 in the NFL. Not to mention, being tied to the dynasty QB1 helps a lot from a long-term outlook.
1.12 Trey Benson, RB, Arizona
Trey Benson may not start right away, but he landed in the perfect spot. James Conner is entering the final year of his contract, so he should see a heavy workload. The Cardinals’ offense is on the up and up, especially with drafting Harrison in the first round. Overall, Benson is the best rookie handcuff on the roster right now and is one injury away from being an RB1.
ROUND 2
2.01 Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
With the first pick in the second round, Drake Maye might feel like a bit of a reach in 1QB formats. However, I’m excited about the new Patriots quarterback. The Patriots are rebuilding after moving on from head coach and general manager Bill Belichick. Although I’m not ecstatic about the offensive scheme fit, as I’d rather see Maye in an Air-Raid offense.
Furthermore, the Patriots did invest in pass-catching talent in the draft, selecting Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker to pair with DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry. Look for Jacoby Brissett to mentor Maye and possibly start initially, but Maye has a Top-12 quarterback upside over the long term.
2.02 Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers
I’ll be the first to admit I wasn’t super high on Ricky Pearsall as a prospect. However, sometimes you just have to listen to what an NFL team is telling you. The 49ers used their 1st round pick to select Pearsall, a great route runner with numerous highlight reel catches, and his skill set will fit this offense perfectly. A lot of his value and early production will hinge on if the 49ers trade one of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel this offseason, but that is already baked into his value, making Pearsall a great target in this range of your rookie drafts.
2.03 Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Blake Corum was my second-ranked running back prospect Pre-Draft, but I lowered him to my third behind Brooks and Benson. Getting a top 3 rookie running back in the second round of drafts is a steal. The Rams picked Corum as the third running back in the NFL draft.
Corum will be joining the Rams’ backfield with Kyren Williams, who had a great season last year with tons of carries and targets. Williams may not keep up that level of usage, so drafting Corum was a smart move for the Rams.
Furthermore, Corum is physical and has good vision to get downfield. He’s also a great pass blocker, which should earn him plenty of playing time, and can catch passes out of the backfield when needed. Williams and Corum will split the workload in the Rams’ high-powered offense, giving us a Flex option for our lineups. He’ll be pushed into the workhorse role if Williams is injured, and we all know that role has league-winning upside.
2.04 J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
This selection was the best player on my board. Even though I tend to take quarterbacks later in 1QB drafts, I love the opportunity and the dedication that JJ McCarthy has with the Vikings. He has many weapons around him and will only improve as Hockenson recovers throughout the season.
Further, McCarthy has plenty of experience being the facilitator, running a pro-style offense, and sneaky upside rushing the ball. He is not the perfect prospect, however, with his average arm talent and struggling to lead receivers into coverage—which will turn into interceptions at the next level. I trust the Vikings front office to make the right decisions. At this price, it is worth a shot.
2.05 Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos
NFL execs are capable of making mistakes and prone to “follow the leader.” Based on what I have seen out of Troy Franklin, I stand by my own evaluation of WR4 in this class. So what happened? The Oregon receiver didn’t tank the NFL Combine, leaping 39″ and running a 4.41-40-yard dash.
Thanks to his slender frame, he will not come down with the ball when contested. He’ll need to pack on a couple of pounds of muscle and continue working on his athleticism. In other words, he’s a rookie. However, he shows tremendous promise and is already a crisp route-runner who is fast off the line. Many projected him as an above-average WR2 for a team, but I like his potential even more than that. Ultimately, he will get to prove it as the potential WR1 in Denver. If only he could have brought his college quarterback along with him. Oh, wait, Bo Nix is also in Denver. Needless to say, I love this pick and landing spot.
2.06 Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Adonai Mitchell is one of the most frustrating prospects we’ve seen in recent times. There’s no doubting his ability, but it’s seemingly his willingness to play at 100% every snap that led to a slight drop in the NFL draft down to pick 52.
However, the landing spot in Indianapolis is a great one, though, and I’m higher on Anthony Richardson than most. His accuracy and poise in the few games we saw in 2023 were extremely impressive and encouraging. Additionally, Mitchell’s short area burst for his size is his best trait and is good enough to beat NFL defenders. If he can show the ability to work on his weaknesses, there’s top-level talent in there, and getting him towards the back of Round 2 is a steal.
2.07 Jermaine Burton, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Burton is arguably the fourth-best receiver in this class behind the big three. At this point, Tee Higgins’ future in Cincinnati is cloudy at best. Burton is a strong downfield separator and knows how to get open. Keep in mind that Tyler Boyd is a free agent and is expected to sign elsewhere for 2024.
Furthermore, second-round picks in 1QB leagues are lottery tickets. Personally, I’ll place my bet on a player with immense talent.
2.08 Roman Wilson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
As we get into the range of the flawed prospects, I chose to go with Roman Wilson of the Steelers. Wilson has excellent speed and athleticism, and Pittsburgh has a habit of hitting on Day 2 receivers. Wilson is also a player in this range with the least target competition in front of him. In the end, this should prove great value.
2.09 Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers
While I am somewhat cautious about his overall profile, Xavier Legette still projects as a value in the middle of the second round. Yes, he did not break out until his fifth season, which should be considered a massive red flag. However, as a first-round pick on a team that has a clear need for a top receiving option to emerge, Legette should still receive plenty of opportunities as a first-round pick. Therefore, if he slips into the second round of rookie drafts, I will still happily draft him despite his flawed profile.
2.10 Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots
Polk may have been Odunze’s sidekick in Washington, but he gets the chance to be Drake Maye’s main target in New England. A refined player with great hands puts Polk in the conversation as a weekly Flex play in 2024 considering his route to weekly volume. He isn’t a wide receiver you’re overjoyed to have on your roster, but your fantasy wide receiver depth chart will thank you.
2.11 Devontez Walker, WR, Baltimore Ravens
A wider receiver who has gone through plenty of adversity in his football career, Devontez Walker gets a fresh start in the NFL with the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson needs wide receiver help, and Walker brings in fourth-round draft capital for this offense.
Outside of Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, the Ravens don’t have a ton of help. Notably, their other two most experienced wide receivers are now Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor. In the end, it wouldn’t be too shocking if Walker turned into the WR3 on this offense, with some upside.
2.12 Ben Sinnott, TE, Washington Commanders
Ending the second round I’ll go with what should be viewed as the TE2 of this class. While most of us had Ja’Tavion Sanders as the TE2 of the class, he wasn’t drafted till the fourth round. With Sinnott going in the second round of the NFL Draft should tell us a sign of how they want to use him, especially with Jayden Daniels at the helm. Sinnott is an offensive weapon that can be deployed anywhere on the field. All in all, a true offensive weapon that I am even willing to take in the mid-second.
ROUND 3
3.01 Javon Baker, WR, New England Patriots
Javon Baker was drafted in the fourth round of the NFL Draft by the New England Patriots. Personally, I like that Baker will be connected to Maye for some time and that there seems to be plenty of opportunity in this new, re-tooled Patriots offense. Baker profiles as a Z receiver with a starting upside and will likely require some patience before he gets playing time in New England and becomes fantasy-relevant.
3.02 Malachi Corley, WR, New York Jets
This feels like a solid value, drafting Malachi Coley in the early 3rd Round of a 1QB rookie draft. Despite the Jets having star wide receiver Garrett Wilson and new addition Mike Williams, they had a need for an underneath slot receiver and Corley fits that mold perfectly. The self-proclaimed “YAC King” is electric with the ball in his hands and adds another dynamic playmaker to this offense that will hopefully take a step forward under a once again healthy Aaron Rodgers.
3.03 Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Wright is a stud prospect and has league winning upside. Pre-Draft I saw him ranked as high as the overall number one with the skills and profile he possesses. Miami traded up into the fourth round, giving up a 2025 3rd-round pick for Wright, so technically we can say he was a Day 2 pick in terms of draft capital. That’s just how much Miami believes in his skill set to help its backfield.
Moreover, we’ve seen how efficiently multiple running backs can produce in Miami’s backfield. Once Mostert is gone, Wright will likely see a lot more volume and production in the 2025 season and beyond. He could also find value in his rookie year if he needs to step into the rotation in case of injury. Mostert, at 32 years old and nearing the tail end of his career, means the Dolphins could potentially give some valuable touches to Wright this season, offering Flex appeal in dynasty leagues.
3.04 Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
With the 3.04, I decided to go with everyone’s favorite rookie sleeper, Kimani Vidal. While he ran a 4.46 40-yard dash, he tends to get caught from behind more than you would like. Nevertheless, an impressive collegiate production profile exists even if he was at a smaller school. Plus, everyone wants a piece of Vidal, so there will be opportunities to flip him.
More importantly, Vidal has an easy opportunity to seize production immediately for the Chargers. He will have to work through JK Dobbins, Isaiah Spiller, and a seasoned veteran in Gus Edwards. Additionally, his skills fit perfectly with what the Chargers want to do, and he can leapfrog the other running backs in the room, making him a great option this late in rookie drafts. Vidal is already flying up draft boards, so take him in your early rookie drafts before he gets too expensive for the risk.
3.05 Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When drafting running backs in 2024, you must look for immediate producers, not stashes. The NFL just signed a lot of free agents, so there are nearly no obvious openings to start day one. Irving is not a starter but has the upside to do what Tampa Bay has publicly said they wanted: spell Rachaad White.
While demonstrating a lack of athleticism at the NFL Combine, Irving shares many similar traits to White coming out of school. Both were projected as career backups or special teamers and ran similar underwhelming 40s at the Combine. White, however, did best the 2024 pick in a number of higher-learning institutions 3-2. There’s not a whole lot to say here other than in a wasteland of running backs; Irving was drafted by a team that flat-out said they needed a compliment. He will play day one and is worth a late flier as a bye-week filler and an excellent handcuff for managers that roster White.
3.06 MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers
Marshawn Lloyd entered as my pre-draft rookie RB4 and one of my favorite rookies. I ended up not loving the landing spot but because of how bad most of the rookie running back landing spots were, he ended up my post-draft RB3. Additionally, I think Josh Jacobs is a top-10 running back in the league, and the Packers felt the need to upgrade from Aaron Jones and paid up for Jacobs in free agency. The deal was a rather strange one, though, and they can get out of his contract as early as after the 2024 season.
This is where Lloyd comes in. He has a three-down skillset, and if he can clean up his fumbling issues, then I think he can become a really fantasy-relevant asset. Ultimately, I had a late second-round grade on Lloyd, so to get him in the middle of the third is a steal!
3.07 Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills
Ray Davis does not possess elite speed, but he’s a solid running back. Buffalo might be looking for him to fill the role they hoped Damien Harris could last year prior to Harris’ neck injury. Should anything happen to starter James Cook, Davis would be in a prime position to capitalize. Round three feels like a good spot for him.
3.08 Audric Estime, RB, Denver Broncos
In Round 3, I’m simply focusing on players who have a pathway to production, and Estime has that in Denver. The only hurdle for him to overcome is the oft-injured Javonte Williams. Estime was underwhelming at the NFL Combine but should still be good enough to carve out a role in the Broncos’ offense.
3.09 Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Even in a 1QB format, I am willing to take a shot on Bo Nix this late in rookie drafts as he should immediately start for the Broncos this season. In an offense that has Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, Greg Dulcich, and Troy Franklin, Nix has every opportunity to be a productive player to start his career. Combined with decent rushing ability (14% career rushing yards market share), Nix could be a solid QB2 for dynasty managers even in his rookie year.
3.10 Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young needs weapons and he has one with huge potential in Sanders. It’s huge because he’s 6’4 and 245 pounds and also because he commanded 18.2% of targets in college with an average of 15.2 yards per reception. In the back of the third round, every pick is a dice roll, but make sure you roll one that’s loaded with a route to fantasy production.
3.11 Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In a fairly crowded wide receiver room, Jalen McMillan might be someone you draft with plans of stashing him for the future. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin not going anywhere anytime soon, the next wide receiver up is either going to be Trey Palmer or McMillan. However, it’s worth noting that Evans turns 31 this year, and Godwin turns 29 next February. Again, this is more of a stash. Even if this means hanging out on your taxi squads for a few years, McMillan is a solid pick this late.
3.12 Michael Penix, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Ending the third round in a 1QB league I like players with upside. If you have a taxi squad, Michael Penix is a perfect one to add to it. First, he won’t be playing anytime soon after Kirk Cousins signed a four-year contract. Second, if or when Penix gets to start, you have a trade piece to use right away. Finally, with the capital spent on him, a team could trade for him just like Jimmy Garoppolo was from New England to San Francisco.
ROUND 4
4.01 Will Shipley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Will Shipley has been a faller in rookie mock drafts recently, as he goes to the Eagles in the 4th round of the NFL Draft. The Eagles added Saquon Barkley this year to pair with Kenneth Gainwell, which makes for a crowded backfield. However, Shipley produced in college, excels at catching screen passes out of the backfield, and profiles as a third-down back in the NFL, which could be incredibly valuable to your fantasy football roster as early as year one. All in all, that’s not bad for my fourth-round pick.
4.02 Malik Washington, WR, Miami Dolphins
Washington is someone I loved as a prospect, and despite falling to the 6th round of the NFL Draft, the landing spot with the Miami Dolphins is an intriguing one. We know this Miami offense is based around speed and creativity, and in Washington, they are getting a versatile playmaker who is elusive and has great YAC ability. He may be undersized, but I’d expect him to slot into the WR3 role in this offense quickly and HC Mike McDaniel will no doubt have exciting plans on how to get Washington involved. Overall, Washington is a great low-risk, upside play this late in rookie drafts.
4.03 Dylan Laube, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
I’ve drafted Dylan Laube in multiple drafts so far this year. I even traded away my 2024 4th-round pick and $20 FAAB because I wanted him on all my teams. He can carry the ball as an every-down running back and catch tons of passes, both from the backfield and out of the slot. I’ve seen Laube’s pass-catching ability compared to that of other running backs like Austin Ekeler and Danny Woodhead.
Furthermore, Laube can be a dynamic offensive weapon utilized all over the field as a versatile threat. He had 43 touchdowns and over 4,500 scrimmage yards, making his catching and route running skills just as valued as his rushing abilities. Personally, I’m not leaving any of my dynasty rookie drafts without him on my rosters.
4.04 Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets
With the 4.04, I decided to go with Braelon Allen, a Derrick Henry lite, mainly because of his size – not the college production. My selection is a swing for the fences and a bet on the upside. While he is firmly behind Breece Hall, I am confident he can carve himself a role in the Jets offense. Being a Devy darling from the beginning of his career at Wisconsin, the hope is that he shows some sort of resemblance in the NFL.
Moreover, the good thing about Allen is that if he doesn’t work out with the Jets, we will know quickly and can move on. Either way, I am happy with the selection because any running back on a 53-man roster counts at this point in rookie drafts.
4.05 Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants
On the surface, this looks like an extremely savvy draft pick for most teams to inject some energy into their game plan. However, this is the Giants, so maybe they did it by accident. Tracy is an absolute threat with the ball in his hands and can score from anywhere, but he needs to be used correctly. He will have no trouble stealing some carries from Devin Singletary. Additionally, as a four-year (plus one redshirt) wide receiver with soft hands but a tight grip on the ball, he is a danger to catch dimes from the backfield and in the slot.
Look for Tracy to also excel in kick returns with the new rules in place. He has a great opportunity to add some excitement to a fanbase sorely lacking in it after watching an unimaginative offense toil away. Tracy is a favorite flier of mine in the late rounds of all formats.
4.06 Isaac Guerendo, RB, San Francisco 49ers
I’m all about picking upside in the 4th round so Guerendo fits the bill nicely here. Buried firmly behind Christian McCaffrey on the depth chart but very much a top handcuff in one of the most productive offenses in football. We’ve seen Christian McCaffrey stay relatively healthy since arriving in San Francisco, but he’s getting up there in age. Additionally, if he were to miss any time due to injury, then Guerendo could be in a position to capitalize.
Guerendo flew up draft boards following his mighty NFL Combine performance. However, he was already an under-the-radar prospect to watch, and post-draft, he rose to my RB9.
4.07 Luke McCaffrey, WR, Washington Commanders
Luke McCaffrey seems to have been an afterthought in this draft. It’s not often you get a player with Day 2 draft capital in round 4. He’s got some work to do in terms of his route running, but he has enough skill to be a proficient slot receiver from day one. McCaffrey has the potential to emerge as a strong PPR option in a few years.
4.08 Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants
It’s long past dart-throwing time, and this pick was all about chasing upside. Johnson was a freak tester at the NFL Combine and with Darren Waller rumored to be retiring, he could easily find himself as the starting tight end for the Giants come week 1.
4.09 Jacob Cowing, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Jacob Cowing is one of my favorite late-round picks. While he did slip in the draft, Cowing still stands out because of his impressive production profile. We already know that day-three prospects have a very low breakout rate in the NFL (3%). However, the breakout rate improves to 9% if we isolate our sample size to prospects with positive experience-adjusted production. So, while their likelihood of breaking out remains low, I would much rather target someone like Cowing this late in drafts as he produced at a high level at every point in his collegiate career.
4.10 Rasheen Ali, RB, Baltimore Ravens
I made this pick for the same reason Keaton Mitchell was my final pick in most drafts last year. That being said, Baltimore running backs always have a path to fantasy relevance. Eric DeCosta also has form for finding running back value later in the draft and Ali could well prove this once again. Ali is a competent receiving back with almost 100 targets at college and, for me, is a no-brainer to stash on your taxi squads.
4.11 Brenden Rice, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Every pick is a total toss-up at this point in your dynasty rookie drafts. However, it can sometimes help target the wide receivers with a better landing spot than others. That being said, Justin Herbert is still a very talented quarterback who needs some wide receivers to step up. Los Angeles is a very nice landing spot for a rookie wide receiver, so I’m very happy to take a dart throw on Rice here.
4.12 Isaiah Davis, RB, New York Jets
With the final pick, I like to go with upside plays. Here I feel like the best players to select are running backs. The Jets backfield is crowded, but Davis was a beast at South Dakota State. He’s had 3,029 total yards and 33 touchdowns over his last two seasons, which is nothing to turn your back on. Davis joins fellow Day 3 pick Braelon Allen as they both will look to compete with Israel Abanikanda for the RB2 behind Breece Hall.
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