The NFL Combine and Fantasy Football Relevance

The NFL Combine is officially here! For most NFL fans this is the first time they will get to see this year’s crop of rookies. However, for NFL teams, this will be a chance to get all of the likely draftees under one roof, the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The young men hoping to play on Sundays will have their strength, speed, and agility tested along with team interviews and media sessions. Here’s what to watch for when looking for the next fantasy option for your squad. Let’s dig right in with The NFL Combine and Fantasy Football Relevance.

Check out the full 2022 NFL Combine Schedule.

Measurements

The first information that comes out of the Combine is the player measurements. The old adage “you can’t teach size” will get tossed around for the rest of the summer as there will always be someone undersized and someone that’s the prototypical size. When looking through the measurements you may see a confusing set of four-digits, 6014 for example. These are read as the first digit is the feet, the second and third are the inches, and the fourth digit is eighths of an inch. So in our example, the player would be 6-foot 1-inch and 4/8ths or half an inch. 

• Fantasy Relevance

There is no exact science to predicting size and capability. However, if other variables are kept constant, the larger player has an advantage. For quarterbacks, you are looking for someone tall enough to see over the line but shorter quarterbacks have been able to be fantasy relevant (see Russel Wilson and Kyler Murray). Running Backs should be shorter and more muscular so you will typically see people look at Body Mass Index or BMI. BMI is a ratio of mass to height. A score of 30% is good for an RB (although this would typically be considered obese). Wide receivers need to have large hands and a wide wingspan. The heights and weights will vary depending on the type of receiver with slot/speed receivers being short and lighter and outside receivers being taller and heavier typically.

The 40-Yard Dash

The 40-yard Dash is probably the most-watched, anticipated, debated, and overvalued aspect of the combine. The sprinter must hold his stance for three seconds and then explode as quickly as possible for the next 40 yards. To maximize, speed football players have adopted sprinter’s stances even though no one on the football field lines up in a sprinter’s stance. You will still see some scouts and coaches with stopwatches “hand timing” rushers but electronic timing has been in place since 1999. 

• Fantasy Relevance

“Speed kills” will be spoken at least once if not a dozen times or more while discussing the 40-yard dash. And while this is true, and on display when DK Metcalf ran down Buddha Baker from behind, it has its limitations. First and foremost, there are very few moments during a football play where a player would be running like they would for the 40-yard dash. Secondly, speed alone doesn’t make you a good football player. John Ross holds the record for fastest recorded 40 time but has yet to post worthwhile fantasy numbers. Running backs and receivers don’t need to run 4.20 (seconds)  but should be around 4.4 or 4.5. A 4.6 or slower run raises a caution flag. 

The Jumps

Combine participants will compete in two jumps. Despite the unlikelihood of a player ever jumping like this in a game, these can provide great insight into a player’s explosiveness. The vertical jump is simply how high a player can jump straight up from a still position. The broad jump also begins from a still position but measures how far forward a person can jump. 

• Fantasy Relevance

For most quarterbacks, the jumps are not an exciting or fantasy useful part of the combine. For Running backs and wide receivers, a vertical jump of more than 30 inches and a broad jump of close to 10 feet show good explosiveness. This does not guarantee the explosiveness displayed on these jumps will translate to the NFL field or to your fantasy rosters. Dylan Cantrell led all wideouts in the broad jump and was third-best in vertical jump during the 2018 combine and has yet to play a snap in the NFL. A common misconception is that a high vertical jump means a receiver will be a jump ball specialist – it doesn’t hurt to show off the vertical leap but there is so much more to winning a contested jump ball than simply the jump. 

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The Agility Runs

The 3-cone drill and 20-yard, or short, shuttle (there is a long shuttle that is rarely used) show off a player’s agility and change of direction. In the 3-cone drill, the player runs around three cones arranged in the shape of an L and finishes at the same cone they began. The short shuttle begins with the player in the middle of two cones ten yards apart. They must run to one cone, then to the other cone ten yards away, and back through the starting position for a total of 20 yards. Both drills require the player to start from a still position, accelerate, change direction, and then accelerate again several times. 

• Fantasy Relevance

These drills are great for seeing how a wide receiver can keep their hips low through changing directions. It is not a replacement for true route running ability but can point to the speed at which a player can get in and out of cuts. A short shuttle under 4.00 seconds and a 3-cone drill under 7.00 seconds are indicators of a player that can stop and start on a dime and make quick cuts. 

Bench Press

The bench press is exactly as it seems – one guy benching 225 pounds as many times as he can. The bench press is statistically one of the most correlated combine stats for wide receiver’s fantasy success. This is probably related to the need to be able to fight through more press coverage at the NFL level. Receivers putting up around 15 repetitions is a good sign whereas rushers should put up 20 or more reps. 

Position-Specific Drills

These are my favorite parts of the combine. Position-Specific drills look a lot like football practice but can provide some glimpse at a player’s strengths and weaknesses. Quarterbacks will throw a series of different passes. Watch for the zip they are putting on the ball and if they can sync up with the wide receivers who are probably catching their first passes ever from these quarterbacks. As the wideouts are running the routes look for hand placement and can they adjust their speed to the guy throwing the ball.

The receivers will also run the gauntlet where they will catch a ball, turn around, catch another, and sprint down the 50-yard line catching passes from both sides before catching the last pass and turning upfield. Look again for hand placement but also how do they change their hands based on the location of the pass. Since the quarterbacks are throwing these passes, there are some that are off-target or thrown with more velocity than others – how does the receiver respond to these changes? 

Running backs will also catch passes and you should be looking for the “naturalness” of their hands. Most backs are not as precise with their hands but caution flags should be raised if the back is catching it with his body. The backs rushing drills are meant to showcase their foot speed and change of direction. These drills should be run fluidly without extra movements or steps. Keep an eye on the back’s hips and whether they are staying low or is he standing up. Standing up reduces a back’s ability to react and makes them a bigger target. 

These drills should not be used as the decision-maker for anybody, even those who get 15 minutes alone to interview players will invest countless hours doing their homework on a player. As a fantasy football GM, the combine should be a piece of the puzzle in getting a fuller picture of the player. A superb combine does not make a superb NFL player in the same way a subpar combine doesn’t guarantee a subpar player. The combine should open you up to exploring a player as a better option than you may have thought before or sound an alarm that maybe you need to go back and review your excitement.

2022 NFL Combine Schedule

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