2024 Dynasty Rookie Profile: JJ McCarthy, QB

It’s that time of year again. Where rumors and bias take hold of the minds of the dynasty landscape for better, or for worse. One such name that has been among the whispers and water cooler talk is National Champion JJ McCarthy. Today, we’ll be breaking down his outlook in the NFL. More importantly, we’ll be diving into his outlook for your dynasty fantasy football rosters.

JJ McCarthy (QB)  Michigan – Dynasty Rookie Profile

Height: 6’2 1/2″

Weight: 219 lbs

Player Comparison: Baker Mayfield

Originally from La Grange Park, IL, J.J. McCarthy embarked on his football journey at Nazareth Academy. He further developed his skills at IMG Academy in the 2020 season. Recognized as a 4-star recruit by ESPN and 247 Sports, McCarthy’s talent was evident early on, leading to his commitment to Michigan before concluding high school.

Recruited by Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh alongside other top quarterback prospects, McCarthy emerged as the Wolverines’ starter. In 2021, he showcased his abilities, completing 58% of his passes for 516 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. The following year, McCarthy assumed the starting role and had a successful debut, completing 65% of his passes for 2,719 yards, 22 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Despite leading Michigan to the college football playoff, they suffered a loss to TCU in the semifinals.

In 2023, McCarthy faced a relatively weak schedule but managed to avoid any performance meltdowns. Michigan’s ground-based offense and solid defense minimized McCarthy’s workload. Nonetheless, he maintained efficiency, completing 72% of his passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns, and four interceptions, with three rushing touchdowns. McCarthy’s adept game management contributed to critical wins over Ohio State, Alabama, and Washington, culminating in an undefeated season and a National Championship victory for Michigan.

Strengths

Arm Talent

First off, let me define what I mean by arm talent. Arm talent encompasses the ability to consistently execute various throws, including deep passes and long-range throws, requiring both arm strength and accuracy. Touch, often overlooked, is crucial for adjusting throws and lobbing over defenders. While raw strength isn’t required, mastering touch is essential.

With a quick release, McCarthy can fire the ball down the field and attack defenses at all levels. McCarthy shows the power to drive the ball to the sideline and throw the deep out with ease. He also has the ability to fire fastballs into tight windows in the short to intermediate part of the field. While McCarthy has a good arm, he also is capable of lofting in passes and putting air underneath the ball. Many quarterbacks with plus arm strength can have a tendency to throw flat passes, but McCarthy avoids that and will throw catchable passes.

J.J. McCarthy throwing on the move pic.twitter.com/GBiVinmZCn

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) March 2, 2024

Passing Efficiency

J.J. McCarthy secured top 10 rankings nationally in completion percentage and quarterback rating. He achieved a 6th place finish with a 72.3% completion rate and ranked 9th with a quarterback rating of 167.4. Furthermore, after three interceptions against Bowling Green, J.J. remarkably avoided turnovers for the remainder of the year, with only one against Maryland. This impressive feat translates to 12 consecutive games with just one turnover.

JJ McCarthy is one of the most efficient QBs on third down we’ve ever seen enter the Draft.

He practically broke the chart (@LuckIsMadeFF) with how clutch he was.

McCarthy should be a top 5 pick when it’s all said and done. pic.twitter.com/gm8MBbcGTc

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) March 5, 2024

Weaknesses

Limited Throwing Reps

It’s no secret that McCarthy was not asked to throw a lot at Michigan. I could tell you one reason or another as to why I think this is. I won’t waste your time by doing so. Ultimately, this point is a Rorschach test on your opinion of the player. Some say he wasn’t trusted to throw. Some say he simply didn’t have to considering the Wolverines with their pro-style offense led at halftime on the back of Blake Corum in all 15 games of the 2023 season.

In brief, I’ll leave you with this. It does not matter why he did not pass at a high rate in college. The brass tax is that he doesn’t have a ton of reps in his mental archive to draw on. He needs experience, there’s no way around it.

No Rushing Upside

While there is no doubt that McCarthy is an athlete, there is also no doubt that he is not a QB that will give us any rushing production. Let the stat sheet speak for itself.

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Att	Yds	Avg	TD
2021	Michigan	Big Ten	FR	QB	11	27	124	4.6	2
2022	Michigan	Big Ten	SO	QB	14	70	306	4.4	5
2023	Michigan	Big Ten	SR	QB	15	64	202	3.2	3
Career	Michigan					161	632	3.9	10

Ultimately, rushing quarterbacks aren’t all elite athletes, but they all have an innate sense on how to be a ball carrier and the tend to use this ability as often as they can. JJ did not do it in college, which leads me to the logical conclusion that he won’t suddenly find out how to do so against NFL athletes.

NFL Fit And Draft Capital

McCarthy might go as the second or fifth quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft. According to the NFL mock draft database, McCarthy is projected as the 14th player overall. While I’d Like to believe that we will be looking at four QBs in the top 14 like we did in 2020, we have to stay grounded until the draft speaks for itself. Many NFL scouts and front offices see him as an early-round prospect with some flaws. His range of outcomes in terms of draft capital is broad

As I briefly mentioned earlier in this article, the Wolverines ran a pro-style offense under Harbaugh. This gives McCarthy a rare leg up over most other prospects. He knows how to take snaps from under center. And while this may not sound too impressive, many schemes utilize play action passes from under center to buy chunk plays. The entire run Joe Flacco had with the Browns lived and died by the success of these play action shots. In short, valuable experience in a profile that is otherwise lacking in that department.

While McCarthy has the potential to start out of the gate, he requires development at the pro level to excel. Several teams are being tied to him, including the Raiders, Vikings, and Broncos. At these three spots, he will certainly be asked to start early, especially if he’s taken in the top half of the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Dynasty Outlook

In the dynasty landscape, a clear tier of seven has emerged in the 2024 rookie class, and it’s no secret. However, with a wrench thrown into the cogs in the form of McCarthy going in the top 10. In this scenario, the tier of 7 quickly becomes 8. In this scenario I’d take McCarthy as high as 1.06 in superflex leagues.

However, if he were to slip in the same way Will Levis did, he would fall into the tier of WRs that come around the 10th to 15th rookie picks. Quarterbacks are always in demand, and in this scenario, I’d be taking him easily within the top 12 picks.

Regardless of scenario, McCarthy will be my QB4, barring an unforeseen development in this QB class. In conclusion, all we can do is wait, all good things come to those who do. The NFL Draft is certainly one good thing we are all looking forward to, and we’d be glad to have you along for the ride with us here at the Faceoff Sports Network.

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