Now that the final major of the 2023 season has seen through, we head into the playoff season. The 3M Open this week, Wyndham Championship the next, and then our first playoff event. Needless to say, it’s a big two weeks to showcase yourself for playoff and Ryder Cup implications.
This week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Twin Cities to host the 3M Open for the fifth consecutive year. The Arnold Palmer design is a 7,400-yard Par 71 with water galore. The track is very flat and features Bentgrass greens. Additionally, the fairways are easy to hit. However, the track can start to show some teeth if and when the wind comes into play. Overall, this place reminds me of Florida Golf, with water being the defining feature.
Top 65 and ties will make it to the weekend. Some notable names making their way to ‘Sota include Tony Finau, Cam Young, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, and Sungjae Im.
2023 3M Open Stats and Preview
Past Winners at the 3M Open
- 2022: Tony Finau (-17)
- 2021: Cameron Champ (-15)
- 2020: Michael Thompson (-19)
- 2019: Matthew Wolff (-21)
TPC Twin Cities: Stats for Success
Below you will find the most important stats at TPC Twin Cities and see which golfers fit the mold. All over the player’s last 36 rounds.
All stats and model references come from rickrungood.com
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (L36 Rounds)
- Brent Grant +0.87
- Ludvig Aberg +0.86
- Garrick Higgo +0.86
- Kevin Yu +0.85
- Cameron Young +0.80
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach (L36 Rounds)
- Mark Hubbard +1.03
- JJ Spaun +1.01
- Hideki Matsuyama +0.90
- Lucas Glover +0.88
- Emiliano Grillo +0.84
Opportunities Gained
Opportunities Gained (L36 Rounds)
- Hideki Matsuyama +1.21
- Justin Thomas +1.16
- Nicolai Hojgaard +1.15
- Ryan Palmer +1.11
- Ben Martin +1.08
Par 4: 450-500
Par 4: 450-500 (L36 Rounds)
- JT Poston
- Sungjae Im
- Sam Stevens
- Ryan Fox
- Gary Woodland
Strokes Gained: Par 5 Scoring
Strokes Gained: Par 5 Scoring (L36 Rounds)
- Aaron Rai
- Davis Thompson
- Ludvig Aberg
- Dylan Wu
- Cam Davis
2023 3M Open Picks and Best Bets
Ludvig Aberg 35/1 (DraftKings)
Ludvig Aberg has been knocking on the door since early March and this week may very well be his time for that first victory on tour. Coming in with very elite form, Aberg fits the mold of this golf course to a tee. He’s long off the tee, makes birdies in bunches, and tends to play Par-5’s under par which can be critical this week.
There’s no doubt in my mind there’s some extra fire under Ludvig to show why he should be on the Ryder Cup Team in Rome. A win would make that a discussion no more. Overall, I like Aberg’s chances this week at a track that suits his style.
Nicolai Hojgaard 50/1 (DraftKings)
In a similar situation with Aberg in terms of Ryder Cup implications, there’s no doubt the 22-year-old Danish phenom fits the mold this week in Minnesota.
Hojgaard comes in this week with some stellar form. A T23 at the Open Championship last week, a T6 at the Renaissance Club the week prior, and a T21 finish at the Rocket Mortgage. All in all, I only think it’s a matter of time before Hojgaard hoists some hardware on the PGA Tour.
In the field’s last 36 rounds, Hojgaard ranks 12th in total strokes gained and inside the top 30 in both strokes gained off the tee and on approach. Hojgaard is also a phenomenal birdie maker and ranks third in the field in opportunities gained. Being the long hitter that he is, I think Hojgaard finds tons of success this week and finds himself in the mix come Sunday. 50/1 simply makes negative sense here. Love this spot for Hojgaard.
MJ Daffue 170/1 (FanDuel)
MJ Daffue is a player that I have been targeting for some weeks now and there is no slowing down. Daffue has five straight-made cuts with a stat profile that screams upward trending. Daffue has gained strokes gained off the tee four out of his last 5 starts. And we’re not talking mini numbers here, gaining almost four off the tee at the Canadian Open, just over three at Detroit Golf Club, two and a half at John Deere, and just under two at the Barbosol.
Daffue’s approach numbers have been steadily improving which tells a lot about how a player is currently performing. After losing strokes on approach for seven straight weeks, Daffue has figured something out gaining just under two on approach in his last two starts.
How could we forget about the flat stick? MJ Daffue has been one of the hottest putters on tour as of late. Daffue has gained on average just under four strokes with the flatstick in his last five starts. Given the history of this tournament, players are going to need their putter to be rolling if they want any chance this week. Overall, combining the off-the-tee play, recent approach play, a scorching hot putter, and a long hitter off the tee… Don’t be surprised to see MJ Daffue in contention this week. 170/1 is a number I could never pass up.
Check out all of our latest DFS content, including picks, strategies, advice, and more, here.
Trending Now
PGA Tour Betting: A Beginners Guide
Fantasy Football Consultation
2023 Fantasy Football Rankings
Best Ways to Determine Your Fantasy Football Draft Order
Fantasy Football Team Names
Connect and Engage with the Show:
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Visit us on the Web
- Follow us on Facebook
- Follow on Twitter
- Subscribe on Apple Podcasts
- Follow on Instagram
- Subscribe on Google Podcasts
- Subscribe on Spotify
Join our Communities:
