3rd Year Breakout WR Candidates for Fantasy Football (2024)
Identifying breakout candidates is key to dominating your fantasy football league. In this article, we spotlight 3rd-year wide receivers poised for a breakout in 2024. Our expert analysis reveals the top breakout WR candidates ready to elevate their game and provide significant value for your team. Get ahead of the competition with these must-watch players.
3rd Year Breakout WR Candidates for 2024
Once upon a time in fantasy football land, it was standard knowledge that only rookie running backs produced in their rookie season and that wide receivers wouldn’t break out until their third season in the NFL. They needed time to learn the playbook, get used to the new coaching, and overall assimilate to the pros.
Well, those times no longer exist. Many wide receivers are coming out of college already with knowledge of a pro-style offense and are adjusting in many cases, immediately to the NFL. Justin Jefferson in 2020, Ja’Marr Chase in 2021, and Puka Nacua last year are a few examples of rookies who produced right out of the gate for their respective teams and your fantasy squads. Expectations for highly touted rookie receivers are escalating – this year’s prized rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. has an ADP of WR9 without ever playing a snap in the NFL!
Let’s pretend for this article that the third-year wide receiver breakout still exists. Which receivers drafted in 2022 will break out this year and take that third-year leap?
Drake London – Atlanta Falcons
Drake London was drafted eighth overall by the Atlanta Falcons in the 2022 NFL Draft. As a high draft pick, the former USC Trojan had a decent rookie year with 72 receptions, 866 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Notably, he finished as the WR36 for fantasy football purposes. There was optimism that London would improve heading into 2023. Unfortunately, he didn’t. His numbers were pretty much on par with those in 2022 and he finished as the WR38.
Entering this season, gone is former head coach Arthur Smith who managed to misuse and mismanage top offensive talents like Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and of course London himself. Recently, Smith was replaced by Raheem Morris. More importantly, Zac Robinson, a disciple of the Sean McVay coaching tree was brought in as the offensive coordinator. The Falcons also made the biggest splash in free agency by signing former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year $180 million contract. Gone is the subpar quarterback play from the two previous years in Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke.
With Robinson calling the offensive plays and London now catching passes from a proven quarterback in Cousins, there is renewed optimism. Hopefully, London will reach his first-round potential and have a breakout season in his third year. It’s certainly in play.
Garrett Wilson – New York Jets
Like Drake London, Garrett Wilson was a high first-round pick and was drafted 10th overall by the New York Jets. In his first two years in the league, he finished as the WR22 and WR23. He’s posted respectable numbers to start his career with 178 receptions, 2,145 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
What makes those numbers even more astounding, is that they were done while Wilson was catching passes from some rough quarterback. Quarterbacks such as Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle. This upcoming season Wilson will be catching balls from future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers.
Furthermore, Wilson led all receivers in the difference between expected fantasy points (282.4) and actual fantasy points (217.2). His expected fantasy points would have put him as the WR7 in 2023 just behind Puka Nacua. Providing Rodgers is fully healthy from his torn Achilles last season, Wilson is on the verge of entering elite WR1 status.
Jahan Dotson – Washington Commanders
Jahan Dotson had a promising rookie campaign in 2022. The former Nittany Lion had over 500 receiving yards with seven touchdowns while missing six games. A natural progression was expected the following season by the former 16th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
If anything, in 2023, Dotson regressed. He had two or fewer receptions in eight games. Notably, in three of those games, he had zero receptions. Additionally, his receiving yards and touchdowns decreased. Dotson was simply unstartable in fantasy and he ultimately finished as the WR54.
However, there is optimism that Dotson can rebound this upcoming season. Former teammate Curtis Samuel left in free agency to the Buffalo Bills making Dostson the de facto WR2 on the team. The quarterback play should improve with highly touted rookie Jayden Daniels. Last year’s starting quarterback Sam Howell was extremely inefficient. Only 76.3% of Dotson’s targets were catchable. More importantly, he was also 14th in expected fantasy points (151) versus his actual fantasy points (124.8).
Dotson has the talent and skillset to improve off of last year’s terrible sophomore season. It won’t take much of an improvement for him to have a breakout season compared to the last two years and at his current ADP of WR63, it won’t cost much to find out if he does.
Christian Watson – Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson finished his rookie year as the WR44 due to a non-existent first half of the season. However, during the second half of the season, he scored seven touchdowns and from weeks 10-17 was the WR9.
There was optimism that the former North Dakota State Bison receiver would continue his 2022 second-half torrid play into the following season. However, Watson suffered from hamstring injuries all season and never looked fully healthy. He finished the 2023 season as the WR63.
This offseason, Watson visited a hamstring specialist who revealed that asymmetries in his leg strength could be contributing to his chronic hamstring injuries. Subsequently, Watson adjusted his training and is apparently feeling good and is in great shape. Providing Watson’s hamstrings hold up, being in an ascending offense with Jordan Love under center, a third-year breakout is looming.
George Pickens – Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens had a very respectable rookie year in 2022. He finished as the WR43 with over 800 yards receiving and four touchdowns. The former Georgia Bulldog took it up a notch in 2023 as he finished as the WR18 with over 1,100 yards and five touchdowns.
Last year in four weeks with fellow receiver Diontae Johnson sidelined, Pickens averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game and was the WR15. Pickens aims to benefit the most with Diontae Johnson’s departure in free agency to the Carolina Panthers. As well, the Steelers signed quarterback Russell Wilson in free agency and traded for Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields. The two new quarterbacks are undoubtedly an improvement over last year’s Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph.
Pickens is heading into the season as the unquestioned WR1 in Pittsburgh. With little competition from other receiving threats on the team, along with improved quarterback play, there is a path for Pickens to improve and break out this coming fantasy football season.
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