3rd Year Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates

The idea of a third-year breakout for offensive skill positions (especially wide receiver) has become something of a mythical lore in fantasy football. We search for it, chase it, tell tall tales to our children about its powers, and sometimes we even get a glimpse of it or experience it ourselves. Here are some players that I believe could break out this year in 3rd Year Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates.

There has been plenty of research done by various fantasy football outlets looking at the likelihood of wide receivers breaking out in their second year versus the third. These are two years with the most frequency of elite first years. The Justin Jeffersons of the world are outliers; they’re unicorns. Rookies typically don’t come in and rock the league as he did in 2020. There is almost always an adjustment period.

Often we think about these breakouts in terms of wide receivers or tight ends, but running backs are not exempt. The 2019 season gave us the full-blown breakouts of Chris Godwin and Cooper Kupp. In the past, we’ve also seen players like Darren Waller, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, and Roddy White give us elite seasons in their third ride through the league. 2020, however, was actually a disappointing year for third-year breakouts. We got Calvin Ridley, but who else? Mike Gesicki? Not quite there yet. Dante Pettis? Kerryon Johnson? Derrius Guice? Woof.

Will we see any third-year players break out in 2021? Here are five players who I believe have a legitimate opportunity and opportunity ahead of them to make a case for a serious breakout season.

Mecole Hardman

Wide receivers drafted in 2019 actually had somewhat of a coming-out party in 2020. Each of AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin can legitimately be considered stars now and they aren’t dropping past the third round in drafts. You want ’em? You’re going to be paying up for them.

Fantasy football managers can, though, wait on a player like Mecole Hardman. In the last third of drafts, fantasy managers are beginning to place their bets on Hardman being in the class of third-year breakouts. With his role as the WR2 in the best offense in football now solidified, Hardman has the opportunity to significantly outperform his ADP (WR52 in high-stake NFC drafts).

With Sammy Watkins now waiting for passes from Lamar Jackson to arrive, Hardman has an opportunity to display his 99th percentile speed (his 40 time was 1/100th of a second faster than teammate Tyreek Hill) in 2021. Both Hill and Hardman and Hill had an average target distance of 10+ yards last season, so while Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire draw the defense in the middle of the field and near the line of scrimmage, Hardman should frequently see only man coverage as the safety help floats to help with Hill.

As far as fantasy managers are concerned, it’s now or never for Hardman, and his projected opportunity screams it should be now.

Deebo Samuel

It’s no question that Deebo Samuel has the tools to be an elite wide receiver. He has elite separation ability (fifth in average cushion in 2020), downfield ability (11th in yards per route run), and sure hands (13th in catch rate). But two questions are begging to be answered to determine whether or not a breakout is coming.

The first is who will be giving Samuel access to those tools in 2021? Will it be Bob Vila (Trey Lance) or Tim “The Tool Man” Taylor (Jimmy Garappolo)? Assuming Lance takes over early in the season, you’re looking at a quarterback who was graded as Pro Football Focus’s strongest arm in this draft class and a guy who simply can make plays happen with his arms or legs. Lance’s starting forces defenses to not cheat near the line of scrimmage, which is where Samuel can burn people.

Second, Samuel faces some fierce competition for targets. We know George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk are dominant playmakers who can break a field open when they catch the ball. But one overlooked stat from 2020 is that Samuel ranked 14th in total yards after the catch despite playing in just seven games. This is a guy who took a 2.2 aDOT and turned it into 11.8 yards per catch. If a play is broken downfield, Samuel is going to be a security blanket for Lance.

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Damien Harris

Last season was Sony Michel’s third in the league. Let me go check the tape to see if he broke out in a big way. Uh, nope. Michel only played in nine games last year due to injury and started in just six of those because Damien Harris began to run away with the job. That probably had something to do with Michel’s 3.7 YPC in 2019, but even without the comparison, Harris is evolving into a solid rusher and well worth his ADP of RB34 in NFC drafts.

Harris’ surface numbers in 2020 look marginal at first glance. He logged 13.7 carries per game for 69 yards at 5.0 YPC. That doesn’t look like anything special, but you must consider the context, especially that he was sharing time with Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, and Cam Newton. But under the hood is where Harris really starts to look more attractive. According to Player Profiler, Harris ranked fifth in true yards per carry in 2020 (the stat removes the outlier long runs) and also eighth in juke rate, showing he’s got some elusiveness with the ball. Harris also checks in at ninth for yards created per touch, so if he can get some massive volume in 2021, this could easily be a 1,200-yard season.

Additionally, for Harris, it’s the volume that looks secure even with White still around and Stevenson breaking off 50-yard runs and touchdowns in preseason games. The Patriots ranked third in the NFL in 2020 with 31.4 run plays per game and second with a 51.3% rush play percentage. Even with sleeper Jakobi Myers and Jonnu Smith on board, expect this to be a run-first offense that should provide plenty of carries for Harris. We just have to keep our fingers crossed for the goal-line work.

Darrell Henderson

It’s not how we wanted it to happen for Darrell Henderson, but after the Cam Akers season-ending injury, the spotlight is squarely on the third-year bowling ball of a running back from Memphis. The Rams have yet to sign (or even really test the waters on) another veteran running back, so the primary competition for Henderson remains UDFA Xavier Jones and seventh-round draft pick Jake Funk.

After Akers really burst onto the scene last year, the Rams played him on 67% of the snaps in the last quarter of the 2020 season. If Henderson can reach that type of volume this season, he screams value as the 22nd running back taken in drafts since the calendar flipped to August.

An overlooked aspect of Henderson’s ascent this year is he is likely to play passing downs as well. With Akers out and Malcolm Brown on another roster, that’s 48 targets to Rams running backs in 2020 that need to go somewhere. Henderson averaged a healthy 9.7 yards per reception and 6.5 yards per target in 2020, so if he can get just 50 targets in 2021 (three per game) that could be 300+ receiving yards for a running back going in the 5th/6th round.

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Irv Smith Jr.

As I mentioned in my piece about dynasty tight ends worth buying, it’s hard to fathom that Irv Smith Jr. just turned 23 years old. It seems like we have been hearing about him as the heir apparent to Kyle Rudolph for a decade.

With Rudolph out of the picture permanently, this is clearly the time for Smith to carve out his role in the Vikings offense. It’s going to be tough with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen all needing to be fed, but Smith has the athletic chops and red zone skills to get his share.

Presently, Smith is being drafted as the TE13 in August, 126th overall. At that price, if you miss out on the big three, you can afford to wait and stock up at other skill positions and still come away with the tight end who finished eighth in yards per reception and yards per target in 2020. Despite only ranking 33rd among tight ends with 43 targets, he ranked second with 2.24 fantasy points per target last year. Give Smith just 70 targets and you are looking at what would have been the TE3 in half-point per reception leagues last year.

Despite missing three games last season, Smith finished with more red zone targets (12) than Robert Tonyan, Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett, and a whole host of other tight ends going ahead of him in drafts. The sky is the limit for Smith if the red zone work continues in 2021.

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Consistency Score: Running Backs

Consistency Score: Wide Receivers

Consistency Score: Tight Ends