5 MLB Player Prop Bets 2024: Home Run Totals

There are not many better sounds other than the baseball cracking off the bat on a cool summer night. Pair that with an ice-cold beer and a glizzy, and you have a great evening. According to the Baseball Almanac, home runs were up by 653 in the 2023 season compared to the year before. We saw a total of 5,868 leave the ballpark last season. Let’s hope that number can continue, because who doesn’t like home runs? Today we will take a look at my favorite player props for home runs for the 2023 season, let’s get into it.

All player prop numbers used are from DraftKings. 

MLB Player Prop Bets 2024: Home Run Totals

Kyle Schwarber – 39.5/Over (-110)

Schwarber has exceeded this number in the last two seasons, cranking out 46 in 2022 and 47 in 2023. Last season, he hit 47 home runs, which ranked him second in baseball. All indications suggest that he will continue to bat from the leadoff spot for the Phillies, giving him more chances to surpass his total set at 39.5.

Shohei Ohtani – 38.5/Over(-130)

In 2023 Ohtani hit 44 balls out of the yard.  He has exceeded this line in 2 out of the last 3 seasons. With no commitment to pitching this season, I believe it should only help him in this category. It will allow him to focus on that side of his game and not have to worry about the rest. According to MLB.com, Ohtani is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup. Similar to Schwarber, this will present more chances for him at the plate. The Japanese player has attracted a massive amount of baseball fans to MLB betting from his home country as well.

Byron Buxton – 23.5/Under(-115)

In his 8-year career playing in the big leagues Buxton has exceeded 100 games played once. As he gets older I don’t expect that to change for him. Last season he sent 17 balls out of the yard while playing in 85 games. He has exceeded the total set at 23.5 once in his career during the 2022 campaign. The talent is there but the uncertainty with his health remains.

Spencer Torkelson – 29.5/Over(+100)

Detroit now has one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the MLB. Over a decade ago the team brought in the left center field wall 25 feet, from 395 feet to 370 feet.  In 2023 the team also lowered the height of the fences from 10 feet high to 7. In addition, the left field corner has been brought in from 345 feet to 342. Left field is a power ally for right-handed hitters who can pull the ball.

Torkelson hit 31 home runs in 2023, the first year becoming the full-time starter. According to MLB.Com, Torkelson is projected to swing 3rd in the Tigers lineup. I love this number for him in year 2 of being the guy at 1st base.

Juan Soto – 35.5/Over(-110)

Soto had an impressive season in 2023, hitting a career-high 35 home runs for the San Diego Padres.  At the age of 25, he is currently in his prime and has recently joined the New York Yankees. As a left-handed hitter, Soto will benefit from the new ballpark which is known for being friendly to left-handed hitters. Additionally, Soto is in a contract year, which could motivate him to perform even better. With Judge batting behind him in the order, Soto will likely face more challenges from pitchers, but I believe he is up to the task. All in all, I predict that Soto is going to have a great season and crush his home run total.

Juan Soto’s first home run as a New York Yankee pic.twitter.com/uOAmFXJGCx

— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) February 25, 2024

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