7 Dark Horse WR1 Candidates for 2023 Fantasy Football
Today, I’ll be breaking down 7 wide receivers with immense fantasy football upside in 2023. These players are dark horse candidates to finish as the top overall player at the wide receiver position.
Right now, the consensus WR1 in fantasy football is Justin Jefferson. Jefferson was the WR1 in fantasy last year after scoring 21.7 PPG. However, so many things could go wrong and prevent Jefferson from repeating this performance in 2023. Needless to say, Jefferson is the WR1 overall in our 2023 fantasy football rankings.
Even if he has a good season, there’s always a chance things will go perfectly for another player instead. On this list, I will be reaching beyond the obvious and not selecting any player with an ADP of WR7 or below. With that being said, here are seven wide receivers I could see finishing as the WR1 in 2023.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
There’s no doubt in my mind that Jaylen Waddle is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are the clear top dogs, but after that, it’s a toss-up. I have Waddle at three, which will upset many people, but it’s so hard to argue against what Waddle has done in his first two seasons.
This next argument may also seem ridiculous, but there’s a real chance Waddle could take over as the wide receiver for the Dolphins. Tyreek Hill is already 29, and I expect him to start to decline, while Waddle, at age 24, will only get better.
Waddle was highly efficient last year, averaging 18.1 yards per target. If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy and dominate just like last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Waddle ends up as the WR1 for the year.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Despite not having a phenomenal rookie season from a PPG perspective, when you look at the underlying numbers, Garrett Wilson was fantastic. Wilson averaged a much more impressive 17.29 PPG during games without Zach Wilson.
Of course, there is room for error, and Aaron Rodgers may not be what everyone is expecting. With that said, Wilson has the upside to finish as the WR1 in fantasy this year. Rodgers has all the talent in the world, and it’s possible that he just needed a change of scenery.
To emphasize how bad the Jet’s quarterback room was, the team didn’t have anyone finish the season with more than 2,000 passing yards. If Rodgers comes out and plays anywhere near his MVP season, Wilson has a strong chance to finish as the WR1.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
After making a case for Wilson, I’m going to give the counterargument as to why Chris Olave has a chance to surpass him. Even though Wilson will be in a better situation for 2023, many would argue that Olave had a better rookie season. In 2022 Olave had a higher average depth per target, yards per reception, and more yards per route run than Wilson.
If Derek Carr is much better than expected, I wouldn’t be surprised if Olave has a better season than Wilson. The two are comparable, but if things break right for Olave instead of Wilson, he could be a true league winner.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Out of everyone on this list, Davante Adams is the only receiver with a WR1 finish under his belt. Adams isn’t an exciting young player like Olave or Wilson, but he’s already dominated throughout his career.
In 2020 Adams was the WR1 by a large margin after averaging 25.6 PPG. One of the main reasons for this was Rodgers’ MVP season. While Adams won’t have the same elite quarterback play this year, he’s getting more volume than ever to make up for it.
The theme throughout this article is the same, but it stands true. If Jimmy Garoppolo outperforms expectations and targets Adams 180 times like last year, there’s no reason he can’t be the WR1.
Many are quick to forget that Adams finished as the WR3 with 19.7 PPG last season. Despite being targeted 180 times, Adams only caught 100 passes. Having 80 incompletions changes everything, and if Adams can convert even 20 of these missed passes into receptions, he can easily dominate fantasy football once again.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
For my fourth wide receiver, I’m looking beyond the top 12 and going with Amari Cooper. My reason for having Cooper here is relatively simple. Deshaun Watson. No matter what your opinion on Watson is, he has the upside to be a top-five quarterback in the NFL.
Additionally, Cooper is a phenomenal talent and had a quiet 14.5 PPG season last year. This isn’t up to par with these other receivers, but Cooper can finish as the WR1 if everything goes right. If he can build on his momentum from last year and continue to be the alpha wide receiver for the Browns next year, he has a real shot.
As we touched on earlier, one other thing needs to happen. Watson has to return to his former self and completely turn around this Brown’s offense. It’s a long shot, but if Cooper is the number one wide receiver on an elite offense, he’ll have a chance.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson is a receiver I expected to be fading this year, but the more I dove into his profile, the more I began to draft him. Watson did get incredibly lucky with the number of touchdowns he scored last year, but he still had a fantastic 2022 season overall.
Furthermore, in 2022 Watson ranked 3rd in fantasy points per route run and 3rd in YAC. Unlike touchdowns, these two stats are very predictable of future fantasy success.
The case for Watson is quite simple. Jordan Love has to be an elite-level quarterback, and Watson has to have a similar touchdown rate in 2023. Both of these things happening is extremely unlikely, but it’s in the range of outcomes.
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
The last player on this list is Michael Pittman, who has been falling down draft boards after a disappointing 2022 season. Pittman was going as the WR13 last year despite having a horrendous quarterback situation. I’d like to know who thought Matt Ryan, at age 37, could lead Pittman to a top-12 fantasy season. Needless to say, everything just crashed and burned. Ultimately, it led to Pittman finishing as the WR20 instead.
Looking forward, I like Pittman more this season. Even though he’s going much later in drafts. Personally, I don’t think it makes sense to predict Anthony Richardson to have a great rookie season through the air, but it’s not impossible. Richardson has some of the highest upside of any quarterback in the NFL, and if he pans out, Pittman will be the biggest beneficiary.
Despite Ryan having a terrible season, Pittman had 141 targets. This number should only increase if Richardson is an elite passer in his rookie year. Any time a talented receiver gets 140-plus targets and is tied to a great quarterback, they have a chance to finish as the WR1.
7 Dark Horse RB1 Candidates for Fantasy Football in 2023
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