Sh*t! You Missed Out on an Elite Tight End, Now What? 7 Late-Round Tight End Targets to consider in your fantasy football drafts.
The tight end position is the disdain of every fantasy football manager who does not roster Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, or George Kittle (I think). Is George Kittle healthy? He is? Okay, so and George Kittle. After those three it’s one land mine after the next.
Personally, I think I like the tight ends in the 4-7 range a lot more this season than in recent years, but recent history suggests this is not the place fantasy managers should be drafting their tight ends. It’s miss, after bigger miss, after gigantic miss. This isn’t to say you shouldn’t draft Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, or Dallas Goedert (Yes, I have him in this tier), but it’s just to point out there have been a lot of risks historically with tight ends selected in that range. So what should be the plan for fantasy managers who miss out on the big three? How do we address the black hole of the tight end position?
History of the Tight End Position
Below are three tables from the 2018-2020 seasons. You’ll find the tight ends drafted 3-13 at the position along with their ADP and their final ranking. Needless to say, it is not a pretty picture.
[table id=2 /]
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Out of the 33 tight ends drafted between 3-13 at the position, only four have finished in the top-five (12%) and only 16 have finished in the top-12 (48%). These tight ends have rarely come with a regular ceiling and more often than not, fail to even finish in the top-12 of their position.
Last season, the TE8 scored 149 points. This would’ve equaled an RB31 finish or a WR51 finish. Why should fantasy managers be chasing that type of return? The answer is they shouldn’t be. TE8 and TE18 were separated by just two points per game. When we look back at where TE8 has been drafted the past three years, we find they have averaged a draft pick of 6.07, smack dab in the middle of the sixth round.
Fantasy managers can find a TE18 on the waiver wire or stream the position effectively enough to get that kind of weekly return. The two-point difference between TE8 and TE18 can easily be made up with the extra sixth-rounder fantasy manager’s did not use on a tight end. That pick then becomes available for you to take a shot on another wide receiver or running back.
A general rule of thumb I like to use to approach the tight end position comes from the words of the legendary Ricky Bobby, “If you ain’t first, you’re last.” Now, we need to spruce it up for fantasy football and maybe alter it a bit, but the point is the same when it comes to drafting tight ends. If you don’t land one of the top-three guys, just wait on the position.
It’s not worth the risk in the middle rounds, especially with the marginal rate of elite returns. To put it plainly, having TE6 or TE8 in your starting lineup is not going to win you any fantasy football championships. They’re just not. So what should fantasy managers do if they miss out on the top-three guys?
Dart Throw City
The turnover at the top-12 of the tight end position is extreme. It’s an incredibly hard position to get a handle on for fantasy managers, outside of the top-three studs. Below is a table that shows any tight end with an ADP lower than the 12th round that finished inside the top-13 over the last three seasons. What’s the first thing that stands out among these numbers?
[table id=6 /]
Tight ends drafted later than the 12th or not at all have had the same number of top-five finishes as tight ends drafted 3-13 since 2018. That should be mind-blowing and it should alter how you’re attacking this position in the draft.
While I am higher on Mark Andrews (TE4, 48th overall), Kyle Pitts (TE5, 53rd), TJ Hockenson (TE6, 57th), and Dallas Goedert (TE7, 76th) than I have been on previous tight ends ranked in this range, there are at least questions whether or not they’re worth the price of admission.
Currently, to draft Andrews you’re having to pass on Dak Prescott, Diontae Johnson, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, or DJ Moore. That’s a top-five quarterback and four wide receivers who could finish in the top-15 at their position.
The top-five quarterback or the top-15 wide receiver is going to have a bigger positive effect on your team’s win-loss record compared to TE4. So if I believe it’s best to ignore the tight end position if you don’t get one of the top three, who should you be targeting?
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Target Volume and Scoring Opportunities
The tight end position is defined by volume. There are very few tight ends who have a consistent week-to-week role in their team’s offensive plans. Last year, only three tight ends averaged more than seven targets per game, which amounts to just 112 targets over an entire 16-game season.
Want to guess which three those were? It’s not a coincidence that when we’re looking at effective tight ends, target share is going to have a huge positive correlation towards that.
Touchdowns are also a huge part of tight-end scoring. The difference between TE7 and TE15 is three touchdowns. The lower you get on the rankings, the bigger a percentage of their overall score comes from finding the end zone. It’s an impossible thing to predict.
So while tight ends being on great offenses is undoubtedly an added bonus, fantasy managers should still be chasing volume. The hope being touchdowns will follow with increased targets. To that end, who are some of the best late-round tight ends fantasy managers should be throwing their darts at?
Whenever fantasy managers are going to implement a dart-throw strategy, the mindset is quantity over quality. It’s the same aspect that drives the Zero-RB theory. So, while I like all of the following tight ends on varying levels, none of them are good enough on their own for me to start a fantasy season as my lone tight end.
However, if I’m able to secure two of them, I’ll feel better about my chances of having drafted a weekly asset or at the very least two viable tight ends, I can stream and get consistent production out of with sound decision-making.
Hunter Henry (119th overall) and Jonnu Smith (134th) – The New England Patriots
Bill Belichick threw a ton of money at both of these players this offseason and their wide receiver group is as bare as it gets. The passing game is likely to be funneled through Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. A team does not spend the kind of money they spent on two players like this just to have them block. It just doesn’t make sense.
Last year, fantasy managers failed to follow the investment the Bills made on Stefon Diggs and they shouldn’t do it again here with the Patriots’ tight end spending spree. These two contracts should tell fantasy managers everything we need to know about how the Patriots intend on using them.
Jonnu Smith in the Red Zone in 2020 (among TEs)
????88.5 Receiving Grade (1st)
????8 TD RECs (2nd) pic.twitter.com/3HcXJMiFz3— PFF NE Patriots (@PFF_Patriots) July 13, 2021
I wouldn’t be surprised to see these two guys with the first and second most targets in New England. Who else is there, Nelson Agholor? Jakobi Meyers? I wouldn’t bet on it. The offensive scheme is going to be built around smash-mouth football, forcing the defense to play in their base defense with two tight ends on the field. That will allow the offense to take advantage of their linebackers having to cover these two athletic tight ends.
I know fantasy managers are worried about them eating into each other’s volume, but there will be enough to go around largely because of the lack of options at receiver.
Tyler Higbee (142nd) – Los Angeles Rams
Tyler Higbee admittedly is not one of my favorite dart throws, but we can’t ignore the low draft capital or the acquisition of Matthew Stafford at quarterback. When you give up what the Rams did to acquire Stafford, it should be another message to fantasy managers. That message is that Sean McVay wants to pass the ball more.
Last season, the Rams’ tight ends combined for 122 targets. Gerald Everett and his 62 targets are now in Seattle. Higbee doesn’t even need to take all of those to become a top-10 fantasy tight end in 2021. He was at 60 targets himself and if he’s able to take on 50% of Everett’s work with some added efficiency with the better quarterback play. Higbee has a good chance to surprise fantasy managers. The Rams offense has the look of an explosive unit. Not only does Higbee have the potential for a steady workload, but he’ll have ample scoring opportunities.
Jared Cook (170th) – Los Angeles Chargers
This is another dart throw that I’m not particularly in love with, but fantasy managers shouldn’t completely overlook him either. Hunter Henry finished as TE12 last year in Los Angeles while missing two games. Even though Cook is getting up there in age, fantasy managers do not have to go that far back to find a time when he was a very viable fantasy asset. In 2019, he finished as the TE7 for the Saints. He had a rough season as did every Saints’ player not named Alvin Kamara. That’s what will happen when you lose your starting quarterback for several weeks.
On the plus side though, Cook could be seen as the No. 3 target in Los Angeles after Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. Mike Williams is also in town, but he has struggled to carve out a regular role himself on a weekly basis. It should also be mentioned that Ekeler and Williams both struggled with injuries last season.
The Chargers are unlikely to run the ball at a high rate because they simply do not have the kind of running back who can do that. This will force them to lean on Justin Herbert’s arm to win football games. This was a good offense last season and should only get better in year two of Herbert’s career. Cook has the chance to carve out a regular role in the passing game and has a higher chance than most at scoring touchdowns.
Adam Trautman (185th) – New Orleans Saints
Adam Trautman is one of my favorite dart throws because he comes with elite upside, meaning possible top-eight. The Saints’ offense behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara is significantly lacking pass catchers and Trautman could immediately step into that No. 3 role.
From 2016-2019 as the starter of the Buccaneers, Jameis Winston averaged 108 targets, 71 catches, 859 yards, and nine touchdowns to his tight ends. Remember where Jared Cook finished last year in this offense? TE7. There is significant upside available for Trautman in this offense.
Adam Trautman was a dominant receiving TE at Dayton, #Saints traded 4 picks to move up for him in 2020 third round, he caught 15–of-16 targets as rookie & was PFF’s highest-graded run blocking tight end in the league.https://t.co/0V0Xcfofrv
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) May 10, 2021
Just like with Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, fantasy managers should follow the team’s investment in any particular player. The Saints traded away the 130th, 169th, 203rd, and 244th draft picks in the 2020 NFL draft to select Adam Trautman at 105. That is an investment. Sean Payton and the Saints wanted Trautman on their team and they wanted him in New Orleans badly.
Trautman has elite athleticism, he’s playing on a team coached by an offensive genius, has a clear path to ample targets, and there’s scoring upside at any Saints team. There may be no better dart throw than this guy in 2021.
Gerald Everett (189th) – Seattle Seahawks
I love Gerald Everett more than I should, but fantasy managers can’t ignore the upside of possibly being the No. 3 target in an offense with Russell Wilson behind center. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are some of the most efficient fantasy players in the game and that’s a compliment to how good Wilson is. That same kind of efficiency could rub off on Everett and the draft cost is essentially free.
The problem is there isn’t a clear path to enough targets. Yes, Jacob Hollister and Greg Olsen are gone, but they only left behind a combined 77 targets. Even if Everett takes all of them it wouldn’t be enough for him to be a viable fantasy tight end. Hollister and Olsen combined for only 49 catches, 448 yards, and four touchdowns. That’s not going to get it done.
Will Dissly is in Seattle too and he racked up just 251 yards and two touchdowns. Everett would need to take almost all of the work between Hollister, Olsen, and Dissly last season to be a usable player on weekly basis at tight end. That’s just not realistic. And yet, I can’t ignore the insanely cheap draft pick and the fact that his quarterback is Russell Wilson.
Cole Kmet (200th) – Chicago Bears
If I’m choosing between Everett and Kmet, give me Kmet every day and twice on Sundays. He was the first tight end of the board in last year’s NFL Draft and he has an easy pathway to weekly volume. Last season Jimmy Graham had 76 targets and Kmet had 44 of his own, totaling 120 together.
It should also be mentioned that Anthony Miller had 76 targets and he’s been on the chopping block the entire off-season as Chicago looks for a trade. Miller could be outright cut if a trade isn’t found. Should that happen, Kmet’s value will shoot up.
Graham will turn 35 during the 2021 season and honestly, it’s amazing he’s still on the roster considering his cap hit and the investment they made in Kmet. That within itself is a little concerning, but I’m going to bet on talent here and Kmet is undoubtedly more talented than Graham is right now.
If Cole Kmet takes over the FULL-TIME Tight End role in Chicago this year…
He’s. Going. To. Explode. Book. It.pic.twitter.com/gihu4BqYCN
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) July 11, 2021
There’s also the Justin Fields factor. Last season, the quarterbacks were Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles. Fields will start this season, it’s not a question of if, but of when and when that happens. I expect the passing game to be more effective than we’ve seen it.
Graham led all Bears’ in touchdowns last season with eight, a sign that their offensive scheme is designed around getting their tight end the ball inside the red zone. If Kmet is able to leapfrog Graham and become the primary tight end in the Windy City, fantasy managers might be pleasantly surprised with what Kmet can provide to their lineups.
Question Marks?
The tight end position is a desolate and depressing one. It’s not fun. It’s made even less fun when you miss out on the top-three guys and go chasing pedestrian production with valuable mid-round draft picks and don’t get anything back to show for it. I get the appeal of Andrews, Hockenson, Pitts, and Goedert, I do. But they all have some question marks of their own.
Can the Baltimore passing game be efficient enough and what do Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins do to his role in the offense? Can Jared Goff and an anemic Detroit offense keep Hockenson afloat? Pitts is a rookie, so there are years and years of history working against him. Goedert has a quarterback who only completed 53% of his passes last season. There are question marks everywhere.
Some fantasy managers are all in on these mid-tier tight ends, but if you’re not and you miss out on the top-three guys don’t be afraid to sit back and take two dart throws. The odds are pretty much the same. And do tight ends not named Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Darren Waller really matter anyway?
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