7 Overvalued Running Backs — Fantasy Football

The running back position is critical to fantasy football. Without the correct running backs, your team is doomed to struggle all season. Throughout the draft, there are multiple people to chase after and label as “my guy.” However, there are also players you need to avoid, like the plague, to succeed in fantasy football for 2023. Let me explain which players you should avoid in your fantasy football drafts this season.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler will be a first-round fantasy football draft mistake this season in 2023. The stars aligned for the aging running back of the Los Angeles Chargers in 2022. Justin Herbert dealt with an injury.

The offensive line had multiple injuries, and two of their wide receivers (Mike Williams and Keenan Allen) dealt with injuries. These injuries, combined with quicker passes, led to the running back benefitting from a plethora of low average depth of target (aDOT) situations. Ekeler has skills. However, as an aging running back on a team with a new, aggressive down-the-field offensive coordinator, I fear Ekeler will be drafted off of past production and not what he can do in the future.

The Chargers have also shown their hand on how they want to handle Ekeler this season. They allowed him to explore a trade while also drafting a wide receiver in the first round. The Chargers want to become a pass-happy team that pushes the ball down the field. This spells disaster for Ekeler.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs was a workhorse last season for the Las Vegas Raiders. He rushed 340 times for 1,600 yards and added 53 receptions for another 400 yards. He also scored 12 touchdowns in 2022.

Sound amazing?

Well, it was for 2022. However, it’s 2023, and that can come back to haunt us now, especially with Jacobs taking most of this offseason off to dispute his contract. As a kinesiology major in the daytime, a human body with that much work combined with improper ramp-up to another grueling NFL season will usually spell disaster for any NFL player to match prior production.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor is another running back amid a contract dispute and wants to be traded. Taylor is also dealing with some nagging injuries. With it being this close to the start of the season, the risk has now outweighed the reward. Taylor should be on the fade list in 2023, regardless of where he lands, due to the risk of re-injury.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones is the 39th overall pick in your point per reception (PPR) draft, with a teammate in AJ Dillion, who is 89th overall in the same draft. He also gets a downgrade in quarterback from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. Jones also has an organization that drafted pass-catching options in Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft. Even though this is football, we use the old baseball phrase “three strikes, you’re out” with Jones. His numbers dipped in 2022, and we expect more of the same heading into 2023 for Jones and the Green Bay Packers.

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans

Everyone loves Dameon Pierce for 2023 and considers him a darling of the fantasy football world, so why do I feel different? Let me break it down for you.

The first thing that scares me about Pierce is that he is a Day 3 running back from a different regime. We have seen coaches in the past decide that a guy isn’t “their guy” and blend in more opportunities for other players, especially with the Texans signing very capable running back Devin Singletary.

Is Singletary elite? No. Will he be better than Pierce’s competition last year (Rex Burkhead)? 1,000% Yes.

The next thing is Pierce provided a terrible defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and would provide a ton of volume while not providing ceiling-level stats. Pierce had seven games with 15 carries but less than 100 yards last season. He only had three games where his yards per carry total reached five yards or more.

Pierce relies on volume. This year, his volume will be tested between Singletary and a more capable quarterback in C.J. Stroud. With his average draft position (ADP) sitting at 48, that’s too risky a proposition for your fantasy football team.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Javonte Williams is coming off an injury, which would keep me from loving him for 2023, but he also has Samaje Perine to compete with this year, who is a very capable running back in his own right. Also, the Denver Broncos are rumored to be one of the teams wanting to trade for Jonathan Taylor.

Sean Payton doesn’t care about the future or slowly bringing people back. He cares about winning, and those rumors tell me he isn’t sold on Williams, which means you shouldn’t be either.

D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles backfield should be seen like the New England Patriots conundrum of old… Draft the player with the lower ADP. That guy is not D’Andre Swift, as he has the highest ADP. The player with the lowest ADP is Kenneth Gainwell. Nick Sirianni showed in preseason, training camp, and the Super Bowl run last year that he trusts Gainwell in the 4-minute drill, the 2-minute drill, and third downs. Those are crucial plays for your fantasy football production. Therefore, Swift is not worth the risk.

Those are the seven running backs you should avoid in fantasy football this season due to being overvalued at their average draft position. However, I’ll even give you an honorable mention late in the draft to avoid:

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Tomlin has been a coach who loves using one running back predominantly throughout the game. That running back for the 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers will be Najee Harris. Jaylen Warren is a handcuffed running back at best. We have seen the backup running back get love before, only to disappoint you. As long as Harris is around, Warren will be capped to the fantasy football production he can provide you.

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