7 Wide Receivers Who are being Undervalued in 2023
One of the keys to winning your fantasy football league is recognizing market inefficiencies and acting on them. Doing so can give you the edge needed to gain an advantage over the rest of the league. The wide receiver market is seeing a premium applied like never before. However, this does not mean there aren’t values. Let’s analyze seven receivers who are being undervalued by drafters thus far.
*All average draft positions (ADP) taken from Fantrax
7 Wide Receivers Who are being Undervalued in 2023
Calvin Ridley — Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 43rd Overall, WR19
How quickly do we forget? Not long ago, Calvin Ridley finished as the overall WR5. His 2021 was cut short to address his mental health, and he was also suspended for the entirety of 2022 for gambling on NFL games. These unfortunate events robbed us of two years of prime Ridley. But let’s take a couple of seconds to remind you why this man finished as the WR5.
#Falcons WR Calvin Ridley put Byron Jones on skates. Ridley has been the talk of camp in Atlanta.
(🎥 @AtlantaFalcons)pic.twitter.com/gQxlcaan1N
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) August 19, 2021
Ridley is one of the premier route runners in the game. He was able to rack up nearly 1,400 yards while playing alongside Julio Jones and with an aging Matt Ryan at quarterback. Before stepping away, Ridley’s 2021 was certainly a disappointment. Upon closer inspection, though, there is an easy explanation.
Ridley’s average depth of target (aDOT) in 2021 was more than four yards lower than his 2020 breakout season. The Falcons changed Ridley’s role in the offense (perhaps to accommodate a porous offensive line and washed-up Ryan?), and Ridley’s numbers suffered as a result. Now Ridley gets to play with one of the more exciting young quarterbacks in the game, Trevor Lawrence, which is a tantalizing prospect.
Let’s address the concerns with Ridley, though. He is stepping into a situation with many mouths to feed. Receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and tight end Evan Engram are in the mix. While all solid options, my counter to this point would be the team clearly felt they were missing something if they went out and added a receiver of Ridley’s caliber. We have already seen Ridley command targets at a high clip when paired with a future Hall of Fame receiver. And with all due respect, none of the players listed above profile quite like Ridley’s main target competition in Atlanta — Julio Jones.
The other “strike” against Ridley? Are we getting the same player who broke out in 2020? Fair question. From all accounts and reports this offseason, Ridley seems like the same player he was in his best seasons and has been working to ensure he is still at that level.
We ultimately won’t know until we see him take the field in game action. But, it’s important to point out that Ridley is 28 and still in the prime of his career. Additionally, we are not talking about a 32-year-old player coming off several injuries. There’s no real evidence to show us that Ridley isn’t the same player, just the uncertainty of if his skills deteriorated. However, there’s a clear opportunity to lean into this uncertainty and make a profit.
The draft cost might seem high, but we may draft him closer to his floor.
Tied to Trevor Lawrence, who may be in store for a breakout season, Ridley provides top-five upside at the position. It shouldn’t be difficult to envision such a finish for one simple fact: we have already seen Ridley do it.
Drake London — Atlanta Falcons
ADP: 51st Overall, WR23
In recent years, second-year wide receivers have been fantastic bets for fantasy. Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DK Metcalf, just to name a few. Drake London has the talent to add his name to the list.
While London’s 2022 stats might underwhelm compared to fellow rookies Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, London is not as far behind these two as some think. London’s targets per route run (TPPR) was an eye-popping 26.77%. London faired better than Wilson and Olave in both these metrics. London’s per-route data is very strong; these metrics correlate to fantasy success.
One of the reasons why London’s raw stats were a tad bare: Marcus Mariota wasn’t very good in 2022. Desmond Ridder is slated to take over this season and is a true wildcard. Ridder wasn’t that much better, but in the four games started by Ridder, London’s total stat line was 25-333 on a combined 36 targets. Overall, he peppered London with targets and showed a clear desire to get him the ball.
Can he still succeed in a run-first offense with target competition in Kyle Pitts? There’s precedent for a talented receiver to thrive in Arthur Smith’s offense. A.J. Brown faired very well in 2020, coming in as the WR12, even with Corey Davis putting up close to 1,000 yards.
And even if Ridder is somehow worse than Mariota?
1.) He peppered London with targets, and London averaged 83 yards a game.
2.) Atlanta has a capable backup in Taylor Heinicke, who did help Terry McLaurin finish as the WR14 last season.
London has the talent and underlying data that always make for a smart bet in fantasy football. He is an easy pick as your Flex or even your WR2 in a pinch that can make good on his current draft cost.
Diontae Johnson — Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP: 73rd Overall, WR32
The disrespect this man continues to receive never fails to surprise me. Arguably the most underrated receiver currently in football, Johnson has proven to be an elite target earner averaging over 153 targets in the last three seasons. However, the talent is unmistakable, as Johnson is currently one of the best separators in the NFL.
In 2022, Johnson had a TPPR of 23%, and in 2021 came in at 28%. These totals are right there with the best receivers in the game.
To get a target hog like this at WR32? Hard to believe. Values like this don’t come around too often. Let’s not forget that we are only one year removed from a WR8 finish. Last year, Johnson finished as the WR30 in PPR leagues, largely because he scored a total of zero touchdowns. So no touchdowns, a WR30 finish, and we are drafting him as the WR32? He had bad touchdown luck, had the same target volume, and we think he will be worse than last year? The math here doesn’t add up.
Furthermore, Johnson is due for positive touchdown regression. The targets will still be there. Why are we drafting him below his floor? Seeing a scenario where Diontae does not pay off at this ADP is extremely hard. A WR1 finish may not be in the cards again, but Johnson could easily be a top-24 option based on volume alone. Snagging Johnson as your WR3 or Flex is the move that could win your league, as he has proven the ability to smash his current draft cost.
Marquise Brown — Arizona Cardinals
ADP : 77th Overall, WR34
Marquise Brown had a very solid stretch last year when Deandre Hopkins was suspended. In those games, Brown went for a 43-485-3 line. His 17 game during this stretch was 121-1374-8. We should not expect those numbers. However, Brown showcased what he could do as the number one in an offense, and he sets up in a similar situation this year with Hopkins now out of the picture. Zach Ertz is on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list and may not start the season, so there is very little competition for targets as things stand. The Cardinals did add rookie Michael Wilson, and while he has been impressive in camp, he battled injuries in college and still has much to prove.
Now, the elephant in the room: we do not know when Kyler Murray will return this year. This means Brown is going to be dealing with less-than-ideal quarterback play. Many pundits and analysts alike agree the Cardinals will be among the worst teams in the league. This means they will trail often and have to throw more out of necessity. Regardless of who is playing quarterback to start the year, they will need to air it out, and Brown is sure to be their first option.
Needless to say, getting Brown as your WR3, Flex, or bench player is a terrific value.
Elijah Moore — Cleveland Browns
ADP: 116th Overall, WR46
Personally, I have a running joke with my league-mates in a dynasty league. I have a group of wide receivers that I am bullish on compared to the rest of the league. As you can expect, I defend them adamantly against all attacks and refer to these players as my wide receiver “sons.” Elijah Moore is one of my sons for 2023.
There’s no defending 2022, as it was a total disaster. The quarterback play was awful. Then, Moore asked for a trade and was benched for poor behavior. While this is all true, it is important to note that even though the stat sheet did not look great, Moore did his part in getting open.
Just been thinking about all of the times last year Zach Wilson missed / neglected an egregiously wide open Elijah Moore
And how that probably doesn’t happen with an MVP caliber QBpic.twitter.com/DJ1L2UN81T
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 16, 2023
However difficult it may be, drafters should not allow this most recent memory to cloud their judgment. Let’s revisit why Moore was a popular breakout pick last year. In 2021, he had a TPPR of 25%* and genuinely looked the part for a five-game stretch from Weeks 9-13, finishing as the PPR WR2 during that time, according to FantasyPros.
The Browns have been dropping hints they plan to open up the aerial attack. That would be great news for Moore’s fantasy outlook.
My stance on Moore boils down to my belief in his talent and that Watson will bounce back and return to form. For what it’s worth, Moore and Watson have been doing their part to secure their chemistry.
Nobody is saying Moore is going to overtake clear number one Amari Cooper. But increased passing and a Watson bounce back leave the door open for Moore to easily smash this ADP.
Furthermore, year three receivers have traditionally been smart bets for fantasy football. Things seem to be shaping up that way for Moore. I look forward to drafting my son in many leagues where he will be a valuable bench asset to start the year with upside for plenty more.
Rashod Bateman — Baltimore Ravens
ADP: 126th Overall, WR50
I don’t understand the hatred out there for Rashod Bateman. I understand people have been scared off because injuries wiped him out the last two years. But WR50?! Going behind the likes of Courtland Sutton? Have we forgotten how good he is when he’s on the field?
Through his first 18 games, Bateman has put up a 61-800-3 line. That’s not bad playing in a sloth-paced offense under former offensive coordinator Greg Roman. The problem is those 18 games have been over two seasons. Bateman only missed two games during his collegiate career. It seems like his injuries have been flukes rather than him being an “injury-prone” player.
Things get complicated when we consider Bateman is competing with target hog Mark Andrews, free agent addition Odell Beckham Jr., and talented first-round rookie Zay Flowers. The latter two additions don’t necessarily indicate the team has lost faith in Bateman. However, they’re clearly hedging their bets against the former first-rounder getting injured again.
The Good News
Good news? New offensive coordinator Todd Monken is bringing a fast tempo and increased emphasis on the passing game, so there should be more targets to go around. It might sound crazy, but it’s not that difficult to imagine a scenario where Bateman is the team’s best wide receiver. Beckham is 30 years old and hasn’t played football since Super Bowl LVI, coming off another ACL injury, and hasn’t exactly been a bastion of health himself. While talented, Flowers is still a rookie with much to learn and prove.
Yes, Bateman is currently on the PUP list due to his foot injury from last year. While not ideal, he’s not at risk of missing games unless he remains on the list until the end of August. One thing this does ensure is that Bateman will remain very cheap in drafts. That’s the whole point. It’s not often you can get a player with first-round pedigree who has flashed major potential this late in drafts.
Ultimately, he is still a former first-round wide receiver entering the third year of his career. If you’re looking for a third-year breakout to place a wager on, this is another good one. If he doesn’t work out, then you can send him to waivers. If he hits, congratulations, you found a diamond in the rough in the double-digit rounds. Based on the pricetag, there’s not much risk here at all.
Skyy Moore — Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 156th Overall, WR57
Why exactly are drafters not interested in Skyy Moore? His rookie stat line was not impressive. No argument. Albeit in an extremely small sample size, Moore was targeted at a decent clip whenever he was on the field. He checked in with a TPPR of 21%* in 2022. Again, extremely small sample size, but it was encouraging to see that the Chiefs made it a point to get him the ball whenever he was on the field.
We also have to remember that Moore is tied to Patrick Mahomes. This alone should make Moore someone you should have an interest in drafting. We all know that the Chiefs throw the ball at one of the highest rates in the league. With Mahomes throwing well over 600 times in the last two years, someone other than Travis Kelce will be fantasy-relevant.
Furthermore, there are 152 vacated targets in Kansas City with the departures of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. Both of these players worked primarily from the slot last season. However, Moore profiles as maybe the best option to take over this role in the offense.
The ADP
When looking for ADP discounts, targeting players who could be in line for increased targets or are part of an elite offense is wise. Moore checks both these boxes and is a strong bet to return a profit this season. After all, it’s never a bad idea to invest in a Mahomes-led offense.
Now that we’ve identified the values with wide receiver, let’s get to work and start winning some titles. The players above can give you the edge needed to hoist that championship trophy. More importantly, give you the ultimate bragging rights over your friends.
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