Fantasy Football ADP Faceoff: Nick Chubb vs Austin Ekeler

This may be contrarian play as Ekeler is clearly more in line for targets than Chubb. And over the past four years, on average, receptions are 89.28% more valuable than rush attempts. But I’m not going to bet against Nick Chubb ever again. In 2020, Chubb’s Consistency Score (CS) of 5.65 ranked ninth among running backs whereas Ekeler’s 5 ranked 17th. CS uses 0.5-PPR scoring and takes into account games missed. So despite Ekeler averaging 6.5 targets per game compared to Chubb’s measly 1.5, Chubb was still consistently better. Chubb was an RB1 or RB2 in 82% of games played. Ekeler, only 67%. Chubb also had six Top-10 weekly performances compared to only three from Ekeler. They both put up the same ceiling, 25.8, so neither player is necessarily more “explosive” than the other. But Chubb is going to consistently anchor your roster more than Ekeler will regardless of a lack of involvement in the passing game. – Phillip Caldwell @DumpsterDiveFF

Where Nick Chubb lacks in his potential ceiling and high volume due to splitting the backfield with Kareem Hunt, he more than makes up for with his efficiency and pure running ability. You’ll hear that he is one of the best pure-runners in the NFL right now fairly often, but it needs to be stated. Despite splitting with a talented back like Hunt, he will likely be a mid-level RB1 once again this year. Even with Hunt on the field, Chubb gets plenty of carries and still has a safe floor as a low-end RB1. Despite playing in four fewer games than Hunt last year, Chubb racked up 226 more rushing yards and six more rushing touchdowns than Hunt did. When they both were active, Chubb averaged 15.8 carries and just under 90 yards per game. This pace puts him at just under 1,500 rushing yards which only Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook totaled last year. Chubb also ran for 12 touchdowns last year and has racked up 28 over his first three seasons. You can pencil in double-digit touchdowns for Chubb once again in 2021.

Ekeler has totaled 1,550 scrimmage yards just once in his four-year career in the NFL and is coming off a serious hamstring injury in 2020 and a concussion that took him out of the last game of the season last year. I fully expect Justin Herbert to sling the ball all over the field this year and the Chargers will be a pass-first offense. Ekeler is likely going to split carries as the Chargers have been adding lower-end running backs to the mix over the past couple of seasons with Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley, and now Larry Rountree. Ekeler will without a doubt catch more passes, but Chubb has a very safe floor and is simply a far more talented running back all-around. – Aaron Schill @aaron_schill

This is very close, you could easily make an argument for Ekeler because he’s going to catch more passes than Chubb. Ekeler doesn’t have Kareem Hunt, a great back in his own right, backing him up as Chubb does. On the other hand, Chubb has the better offensive line and is a much better pure runner than Ekeler. Chubb is built to take hits and he can simply punish defenders. Chubb runs with power and agility. Both backs missed time last year, Chubb missing four games with an MCL injury, while Ekeler missed six games with a severe hamstring injury. You can never predict injuries, and anybody can get hurt at any time, but if I’m betting on durability throughout the year it’s Chubb. He will finish with more rushing yards and touchdowns than Ekeler. In Herbert’s second season, he may choose to throw downfield even more this year, as he continues to develop. Ekeler will obviously have a good role in the passing game, but he will defer carries to Justin Jackson, Josh Kelley, and possibly rookie Larry Roundtree who has looked good this preseason. Jackson was hurt much of last year but is a quality runner. Again this is close, very close, and Ekeler’s passing game role and PPR capability is tempting, but give me Chubb who is simply the better running back, has the better offensive line, and is more built to last at the position. – Steve DeAngelo @FantasySavvy

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First thing’s first, starting Austin Ekeler gives you a weekly chance at winning a signed jersey from number 30 himself. If you missed this, go check out his Twitter account where he mentioned this. But even removing that from the picture, Ekeler is my preferred starter for PPR and 1/2-PPR formats. Standard scoring leagues, however, that’s a different story.

Ekeler only played nine full games in 2020, but nonetheless finished as RB27. If you remove his Week 4 stat-line when he left early, he was RB7 on a point per game basis. At that pace, he would have finished RB4 if he played all 16 games. If we look back at 2019, his last full season, Ekeler finished RB6. This is significantly helped by Ekeler’s pass game usage. Since 2018, Ekeler has been targeted 235 times, compared to Nick Chubb, who was targeted only 105 times in the same span. Ekeler’s pass usage gives him the upside to outperform his ADP and finish the season ahead of Chubb. – Austin Amandolia @FantasyAustin

Ekeler is averaging seven targets per game with Justin Herbert as his quarterback, which equates to 119 targets over a 17 game season. Last season Ekeler was running behind the worst offensive line in the league according to PFF. Ekeler still put up an excellent 4.6 YPC and 7.5 YPR, proving to be highly effective when on the field even behind a terrible line. Additions of All-Pro center Corey Linsley and 13th overall pick Rashawn Slater should help boost this offensive line and Ekeler’s chances of getting an increased workload on the goalline. What really puts Ekeler over Chubb for me is Hunt, who takes away touches from Chubb and should be still heavily involved in the Browns offense, while Ekeler has really no one to worry about in the Chargers backfield. – Justin Herrer @Semtexmex93

Ability, personnel, and location are the three biggest factors I focus on when analyzing the pros and cons of players in fantasy football. In this particular instance, Chubb is an elite power-runner who benefits from playing behind arguably the best offensive line in the league, while Ekeler is a smaller, more compact running back who is frequently used as a receiver out of the backfield. Despite Hunt earning eight more carries (198) than Chubb in 2020, he averaged 5.6 YPC and scored 12 rushing touchdowns. Chubb was first in Juke Rate (37.9%) and returns to the same offensive scheme and personnel with another offseason to build continuity and chemistry. It’s Chubb’s lack of targets that is the concerning aspect of rostering him in PPR formats, as he will need to average 5.6 YPC again in 2021 to maintain a high-end RB1 status. Ekeler finds himself healthy and returns as the Chargers’ primary ball carrier in their backfield. However, new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi came over from New Orleans this offseason and will deploy an offensive scheme that projects to use Ekeler as the Saints used Alvin Kamara in recent years. Not to make fantasy managers overly excited but Kamara saw 107 targets in 2020, meaning Ekeler could surpass 100 targets in 2021 as he is the perfect prototype for Lombardi’s run-centric scheme. The allure of Ekeler seeing 100+ targets is too tempting to neglect in PPR leagues, meaning his floor and ceiling are higher and present less risk than drafting Chubb as the RB6. – Matt MacKay @Matt_MacKay_

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