The Major League Baseball trade deadline has come and gone, which means we’ve officially reached the stretch run of the 2023 regular season with playoff races heating up in both the National and American League.

In my previous installment, I examined various futures bets that could be applied with regards to the National League Pennant. Today, I’ll focus on the American League by offering odds, best bets, favorites, contenders, and a sleeper pick as we move closer and closer to the MLB postseason.

American League Odds 2023

MLB odds used for these National League Pennant best bets are current as of Tuesday, August 8th, and courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.

Texas Rangers (+325)
Tampa Bay Rays (+360)
Houston Astros (+360)
Baltimore Orioles (+360)
Toronto Blue Jays (+700)
Minnesota Twins (+900)
Seattle Mariners (+1300)
New York Yankees (+2000)
Boston Red Sox (+3500)
Cleveland Guardians (+4500)
Los Angeles Angels (+6600)
Detroit Tigers (+30000)
Chicago White Sox (+50000)
Kansas City Royals (+250000)
Oakland Athletics (+350000)

American League Pennant Best Bet

Toronto Blue Jays (+700)

Despite recent key injuries to closer Jordan Romano and All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette, the Toronto Blue Jays (64-51), winners of four of their last five games, are getting hot at just the right time.

With 47 games left in the 2023 regular season, the Jays currently own the final AL Wild Card spot with a two-game buffer over the fourth place Seattle Mariners (61-52). Toronto also has a 72.8% implied probability to qualify for the postseason which is good news for die-hard baseball fans north of the border.

Toronto’s strong play of late can be attributed to their balanced lineup, current six-man rotation, and excellent bullpen. Toronto has also scored well in the advanced metrics department ranking second in the AL in OBP, third in xBA, and fifth in wOBA, per Baseball Savant.

The Jays had a short-lived playoff a season ago, losing both games to the Mariners in a best-of-three series. I think this team is ready to avenge last season’s disappointment and should be considered one of the most dangerous teams in the American League.

American League Pennant Favorites

Texas Rangers (+325)

Although the Baltimore Orioles (70-43) lead the American League, the Texas Rangers (68-46) currently possess the single-shortest odds to win the AL Pennant at (+325). This is due in large part to the Rangers’ stellar play this season, and their trade deadline acquisitions.

Texas leads the American League in a wide variety of sabermetric statistics which include BA (.272), GB% (39.8), xwOBA (.341), and HardHit% (41.9), per Baseball Savant. They can hit, run the bases, play defense, and have one of the most athletic starting rotations in baseball.

In addition to Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning, the Rangers rotation was also boosted with the trade deadline acquisitions of three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery.

After a phenomenal trade deadline, Texas has all the pieces for a long postseason run this fall. Hop on the Texas train as soon as you can.

Baltimore Orioles (+360)

Despite a three-team tie with (+360) odds, I’m opting for the current AL-East leading Baltimore Orioles as my second favorite to hoist the AL Pennant.

Everyone “in the know” across Major League Baseball knew of the plethora of young guns that Baltimore had coming down the pipeline over the past few seasons. Now, they’ve been put on notice with the likes of Gunnar Henderson and All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman running the show.

The O’s are the picture-perfect mix of youthful enthusiasm and veteran leadership which has paid massive dividends thus far in 2023. As a team, Baltimore ranks 5th in the AL in SLG (.422) and eighth in Whiff% Against (29.0).

The Orioles also went out and added (yet another) big arm in the bullpen with the acquisition of Shintaro Fujinami. He came over from the Oakland Athletics prior to the trade deadline joining the likes of Felix Bautista, Yennier Cano, and Bryan Baker, as one of the most potent bullpens in the Majors.

This club is young, balanced, and ready to prove to the baseball world that they’re ready to make some noise and contend for a World Series. At (+360), there’s still some underlying value to be had for one of the best stories in 2023.

American League Pennant Contenders

Tampa Bay Rays (+360)

After a red-hot start to the 2023 campaign, the Tampa Bay Rays (69-46), have fallen off a bit. Now, they currently trail the Orioles by two games for first place in the AL East. A shoo-in to make the postseason with a five-game buffer in the Wild Card, the Rays are an interesting team to bet on as we inch closer and closer to the playoffs.

In lieu of playing in one of the smallest markets, the Rays always seem to be sniffing around the postseason year after year. This is a testament to skipper Kevin Cash and GM Peter Bendix who seemingly field a competitive team capable of challenging in the AL.

Tampa Bay was active ahead of the trade deadline boosting their pitching staff with the acquisition of Aaron Civale, who came over from the Cleveland Guardians, further supplementing one of baseball’s best starting rotations.

On a team that boasts the likes of Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz, Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, and Zach Eflin, the Rays are an absolute force to be reckoned with. This is exemplified in various advanced rankings where the Rays rank second in the AL in wOBA, fifth in Zone Swing%, and second in xSLG against, per Baseball Savant.

Don’t sleep on the MLB “poster boys” of doing more with less.

Houston Astros (+360)

What’s an MLB postseason without the Houston Astros? Winners of two of the past six World Series (2017 and 2022), including six-consecutive playoff appearances, Houston has gone 7-3 in their past 10 games and seem poised for October baseball yet again.

Top to bottom, the Astros own one of the most lethal and well-balanced lineups in all of baseball. With a “hit-by committee” mentality that’s become fully embedded in Houston in recent years, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a hole one through nine making the Astros a tough out come playoff time.

The Astros also welcomed back a familiar face ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Justin Verlander (3.62 ERA) from the New York Mets and joining players such as Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Christian Javier to round out the rotation.

Based on their recent string of success, combined with a roster scattered with proven winners, the Astros hold just as good a chance as anyone to hoist the AL Pennant when all is said and done.

American League Pennant Sleeper

Minnesota Twins (+900)

When locking in a futures bet, you’ll want to target undervalued teams who have performed better than their overall record would suggest. In the context of the AL Pennant, I’ll focus on the Minnesota Twins (60-55).

In a division that features four sub-.500 teams, the Twins currently hold a five-and-a-half game lead over the second-place Guardians. Additionally, barring anything extravagant, they should be well on their way to hoist the AL Central crown.

Led by the likes of Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, and Byron Buxton, who’s set to return from injury prior to the postseason, the Twins have been largely overlooked this season. On the mound, Minnesota can be a dangerous team in a playoff series where they have the luxury of tossing out Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober.

Furthermore, the Twins rank first in the American League in Batted Balls, Barrel%, and xSLG, and second in OBA. Such statistics would suggest a ballclub that’s better than five games above .500 giving the Twins some underlying value as the season winds down. Thus, the Twins are a fantastic play to win the AL Pennant at a whopping (+900) price point.

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