Austin Ekeler 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Austin Ekeler 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
587 touches, 3,195 scrimmage yards, and 38 touchdowns — these are Austin Ekeler’s numbers for the last two seasons.
Sadly, he won’t be rewarded with a contract extension. Instead, Ekeler will enter the 2023 season on the last year of his current deal, albeit with some newly negotiated incentives. Luckily for fantasy managers, we don’t get points for contract extensions. What we care about are fantasy points from on-the-field production, and Ekeler can score a lot of them.
Ekeler has been a fantasy force since taking over as the undisputed number one on the Chargers’ depth chart in 2021. He put up 1,558 scrimmage yards with 20 touchdowns in his first year as Los Angeles’ RB1. Entering 2022, many people were skeptical that he could repeat that high production level. Ekeler said (metaphorically), “Hold my protein shake,” while he followed that up with a 1,637-yard, 18-touchdown campaign.
This year, some people are approaching his season with the same skepticism, especially in the touchdown category. Those same skeptics may be quick to point at his disappointing contract resolution and his failed trade request as a reason why he may not perform as strongly as he has or that the Chargers may look to get other backs involved to evaluate their post-Ekeler future.
To those skeptics, I say, “Ekeler is a professional, and they want to win now.” As disgruntled as anyone might be when they’re told they will not be paid what they’ve rightfully earned, he has enough honor and integrity to move past the drama and look forward to another exciting season. If he can move past it, so can we.
Fantasy Football Outlook for 2023
Ekeler is poised to enter the 2023 season with nearly the same offensive roster around him, except for a few additions to the offensive line and a playmaking rookie in Quentin Johnston. Thankfully, these pieces will only help Ekeler — running backs can always use a line upgrade, and Johnston will surely present as a deep threat that will undoubtedly open up the short-intermediate field for Ekeler to resume his invaluable, receiving role.
His backfield mates, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller and Larry Rountree III, will all be involved in some capacity but not in any meaningful way that will subtract from Ekeler’s value. Ekeler has never received Derrick Henry-level carries; he only received 50.5% of the Chargers’ rushing attempts last season. Where he makes his heyday is in the passing game, and he can do that better than most.
In 2022, he caught 107 balls, 35 more than the leading Chargers’ wide receiver (over Joshua Palmer, of all people)! There are no signs of that role changing this season.
Ekeler is currently going off the board as the second overall pick behind Christian McCaffrey, according to our fantasy football rankings for the 2023 season. Other rankings have the top three elite wide receivers mixed into the top five, creating disharmony among the ranks. One clear thing, though, is that Ekeler belongs in the top half of the first round.
Only a handful of dual-threat workhorses can confidently be relied on, and he is one of them without question.
It’s truly a matter of personal preference in which direction you go at the beginning of drafts. Whether you start with one of the elite wide receivers or choose to go the traditional RB-first route, you won’t be displeased with the pick. Ekeler is as reliable as they come, and it’s hard to fathom a world in which Ekeler’s numbers don’t remain elite in this high-powered Chargers’ offense.
If anything, he has a chance to be even better than his last two seasons now that Los Angeles brought in Kellen Moore as their Offensive Coordinator. Moore is a genius in putting his team in a position to succeed. “In Moore’s four seasons as offensive coordinator, the Cowboys were second in the league in total offense (391.0 yards per game) and scoring (27.7 points per game).”
Additionally, Moore runs a more balanced offense (53%/47% – pass/run ratio) than Joe Lombardi (65%/35%). This means Ekeler should be handed the rock more times this year, giving him more opportunities to score points. Will a more balanced approach hurt his receiving potential? Perhaps, but it’s just as possible someone else’s targets may suffer instead; besides, what he loses in receptions, he’ll likely gain in carries.
No matter how his touches come, he remains a primary weapon in this offense and will still be a reliable first-overall pick with a week-winning upside.
Dynasty Football Outlook
Ekeler’s dynasty outlook is not nearly as rosy as his 2023 redraft outlook. Unlike year-long formats, dynasty does care about contract situations, and he is as solid as tissue paper. We know he’ll be great this year, barring injury, but it’s anyone’s guess as to what may come in 2024. He could be franchise-tagged if the Chargers want to run it back, but beyond that, it’s impossible to predict. He also turns 29 next year, which doesn’t help his case. Things don’t look good with the current devaluation of the running back market.
Actionable advice: Ekeler is a win-now player. He has one, maybe two years of predictable, top-tier production. After this year, you might as well call him “The Riddler” because he’ll be smothered in question marks. If you’re a contending team, kick the tires of the Ekeler manager with rookies and picks in tow and see if you can’t come out on top.
If you’re in a rebuild, talk to the contenders and see what kind of haul you can get.
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