Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Strategy – Players to Avoid

One might consider Best Ball the most prolific style of fantasy sports in the world today. It can be found on multiple platforms in countless varieties and it’s a great way to satiate that fantasy football hunger during a sports league’s offseason.

In short, Best Ball is redraft fantasy football, but you don’t set your lineups week in and week out or work the waiver wire. You just draft your team and watch them all year long. You can play Best Ball leagues on most all platforms now, but Underdog Fantasy is our favorite way to play. However, now you can do Best Ball scoring for just about any league on Sleeper, even with your dynasty fantasy football leagues. 

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Best Ball Draft Strategy – Players to Avoid

When diving into a new Best Ball draft, there are different strategies, tactics, and targets along the way. In this article, I’ll be giving you my list of players you may want to think twice about adding to your squad and why I will be avoiding them in my own upcoming drafts. I also won’t mention any of the upcoming rookies here because the team they join will vastly alter the value of those players and we don’t know where any of them (aside from Caleb Williams) are going to land.

Without further ado, here are six players I am currently avoiding in Best Ball drafts. For this article, the ADP is straight from Underdog Fantasy as of April. 

WR Puka Nacua

ADP 9.5 | WR6

In one of the historical rookie wide receiver seasons of all time, Puka Nacua made himself known to all. He got his chance early and turned it into 105 catches for a record-breaking 1486 receiving yards as a fifth-round rookie. Additionally, he earned 160 total targets and notched over 100 receiving yards in seven games last season. Even after that magical debut, I’m not fully sold. 

The start of his season was, at least, partially due to Cooper Kupp being injured. With a healthy Kupp and that fifth-round capital the Rams spent on him, a regression is possible. Often enough, we’ve seen a late-round rookie have success and then be almost cast aside when the big names are in play. Along with Kupp, Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson have shown that they can flourish when called upon. Then there were the five games in which Nacua played more than half of the snaps and failed to surpass 50 receiving yards and the fact that he scored just six times.

Don’t hear what I’m not saying. I love Nacua as an athlete and a pass catcher. I just think a first-round value for a player who came out-of-nowhere is a bit much. His current ADP is predicated on just one year and I want more perceived stability from my first selection in any fantasy draft.

RB De’Von Achane

ADP 18.3 | RB8

The explosiveness of De’Von Achane was glaringly apparent in 2023. As a rookie, he scored 11 total touchdowns and eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards in five of the ten games he finished. He’s one of the fastest looking players in the professional game today. All that makes him an excellent Best Ball target, but I have my concerns.

Aside from missing six games and leaving a seventh very early, there is one unsettling matter for me: consistency. While consistency is less important in Best Ball because of how the contest is scored, it’s something that scares me from choosing a player as my first running back. You still need your top players to perform well on a regular basis when you’re spending that kind of capital. Also, the fact that the Dolphins made new terms with Raheem Mostert shows me that they plan to use both runners fairly equally in an attempt to keep both as fresh and injury free as possible.

In summation, Achane is a great player to roster in Best Ball but the price is too steep. Mostert is still going to get his chances and the Dolphins still have possibly the best tandem of wide receivers in the NFL to move the ball efficiently. No Achane for me this year unless his stock takes a considerable dip.

WR Keenan Allen

ADP 41.0 | WR27

One of the greatest and most reliable receivers of the last decade, Keenan Allen will be playing his 12th NFL season with the Chicago Bears. His last seven seasons saw him produce more than 1100 receiving yards five times, at least six touchdowns six times and six Pro Bowl appearances. In 2023, he managed career bests with 95.6 receiving yards per game and 108 receptions. And that’s where the accolades end.

Many of the best wide receivers struggle in their first season with a new team. On top of that, D.J. Moore is still in Chicago and he is another highly talented pass catcher who will command a healthy portion of the passing pie. Additionally, rookie quarterbacks rarely support one, let alone two, fantasy relevant receivers in their first campaign. Sure, we saw it last year from Houston, but that was an anomaly amongst years of reference data.

Allen will have his weeks, but I’m afraid they will not come often enough with a new set of everything for the talented veteran. For a player that you’re likely taking with your fourth draft selection, if not sooner, you want a guy who is going to be one of your top fantasy scorers nearly every week. If the draft price dips in the coming months I would consider taking him. As it stands now, I’m out on the former Comeback Player of the Year.

WR George Pickens

ADP 53.4 | WR32

We haven’t seen a ton from George Pickens yet as he gears up for his third NFL season. What we have seen from him was a league leading 18.1 yards per reception on 63 catches in 2023. The final six games of last season, Pickens caught 69.7% of his targets and averaged 20.8 yards per catch. He is now the perceived number one receiver for the Steelers for 2024.

Normally, adding a player that is the clear top target for a team’s passing game is ideal. The biggest problem is that many people expect the Steelers to acquire a highly touted receiver in this year’s draft. This wouldn’t hurt Pickens’ early season value as much as it could seriously hinder his long-term potential across the season. Then there were the “personality clashes” he had with Steelers players/coaches throughout the 2023 season highlighted by league and team fines in excess of $200,000. If he continues to cause issues for the team, he could see less playing time or even find himself in a new landscape. Both if which are things I don’t want from my fantasy players.

With lots of players, we have highs and lows. The potential for Pickens to be absurdly beneficial to your fantasy team is there. However, the chance that he completely implodes is also there. If you’re into the “high risk, high reward” players, go for it. I am not and I’ll pass on him.

QB Dak Prescott

ADP 77.9 | QB8

Dak Prescott lit the fantasy football world on fire down the stretch and led many a fantasy manager to a championship. After a mundane start to the 2023 campaign, he threw 30 touchdown passes, just five interceptions and surpassed 270 passing yards eight times in his last ten regular season games. He even added 404 passing yards and three more scores in a single playoff game. Many folks are expecting Prescott to pick up from where he left off last season. I’m not.

Down the stretch of last season, the passing defenses that Dallas faced were, for lack of a better word, soft. Matchups against the Eagles, Commanders (x2), Panthers, Giants, Seahawks and Lions were plentiful for a team that had to rely on passing while their ground game struggles to move the ball efficiently. After CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, the lack of another legitimate third or fourth option is clear. Sure, they could add a stud rookie or two, but they take time to develop. That’s time that your Best Ball squad can’t spare.

Furthermore, the chances of the opposing stars aligning at the end of the season in such a way as last year isn’t very likely. They’ll still get their divisional matchups near the end of the season but they could also run into tough defenses like the Ravens, 49ers and Browns at that point.

Prescott is going to have some stellar performances in 2024 and he’s worth having on your squad. My issue is at that point in the draft, I’ve either got my number one QB already or I’m waiting for a cheaper signal caller like Justin Herbert or Brock Purdy while I improve on another of my positions.

TE T.J. Hockenson

ADP 119.3 | TE14

In an injury shortened season. T.J. Hockenson had his best year to date. He set career highs in receptions (95), receiving yards (960) and catch rate (74.8) in less than 15 games. Having suffered a late-season ACL tear has tanked Hockenson’s fantasy value but is it still too high? Well, yes.

Just before the 2023 kickoff, Hockenson agreed to a rather bountiful contract extension. For this reason, neither the player nor the Vikings will be rushing him back onto the field and he won’t be ready for Week 1. Personally, I’d be shocked to see him on the field before October and I think around Halloween is the more likely scenario. Then there is the departure of Kirk Cousins with the addition of Sam Darnold and a yet-to-be-determined rookie quarterback that could significantly change how the offense operates.

To put it all together bluntly, taking Hockenson as your second tight end in the 10th or 11th round is absurd. Realistically, he could miss half of the season. There are a number of players who intrigue me at that point in the draft that could score well for your Best Ball team while he is out like Khalil Shakir or Gabe Davis. All things considered, if his stock drops a bit, I could be back on board.

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