Best Bets: Week 1

Week 1 is finally here and we are ready to roll with our best bets, player props, and an added bonus of our sleepers of the week for your fantasy lineups. For the preseason, I finished 26-21-1 hitting a respectable 55%, and look to improve upon that going into the regular season. Here are my favorite picks for the first week of the NFL season in Best Bets: Week 1.

1:00 Games

Washington Football Team -1

The Chargers with a brand new Head Coach in Bradon Staley will be traveling cross country to take on Washington. Obviously, teams can adapt to the travel and time change, but being the first game of the year, I am willing to give it more credence here. More than that however is the fierce Washington pass rush led by Chase Young who looks to build on a strong rookie campaign. They will be coming hard for Justin Herbert, hopefully, he gets a good night’s sleep and eats his Wheaties in the morning. These two teams are fairly even in my eyes, so with the home field, and the experience of Head Coach Ron Rivera, that is enough for me to back the Football team here.

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

I believe in Jalen Hurts and this offense, the matchup is solid, and just think Philly is a better team overall. I think Philadelphia likely wins this game outright, so you could throw some on the Moneyline (+155) also.

Tennesee Titans -3 & Titans vs Cardinals Over 52

This is fairly simple for me, the Titans are at home and I think Mike Vrabel is a  better coach than Kliff Kingsbury.  Arizona’s defense has improved on paper, but I still expect to see a lot of points from both teams to push the game over.

New York Jets +4

I am a Jets fan and I basically gave up on this team after the butt fumble, but Zach Wilson has restored my faith, confidence, and fandom. I was never a Sam Darnold guy and while he may improve in Carolina, I still don’t think he’s going to be a truly effective starter in this league. The Jets can win this game outright.

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4:25 Games

New England Patriots -3

Mac Jones will make his NFL debut after looking very capable in the preseason, leading to Cam Newton‘s release. He will be facing a tough Dolphins defense but is playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the league. On the other side, New England’s defensive line has a massive advantage over the Dolphins offensive line. Bill Belichick has been prepping for this game since Tom Brady hoisted a Vince Lombardi trophy without him.  The Patriots will be well prepared and Jones will do exactly what he’s asked to get this game plan executed.

Green Bay Packers -3.5

Due to the effects of Hurricane Ida, the Packers/Saints game will be played in Jacksonville, Florida. Maybe a smidge of home-field advantage for New Orleans but not much.  Aaron Rodgers versus the turnover machine Jameis Winston himself who has 120 total turnovers in 70 career starts. Meanwhile, Rodgers is coming off a season where he threw 48 touchdowns with just five interceptions. Winston will be slinging it but you can bet the Packers will likely come away with a turnover or two or three! Nobody can cover Davante Adams, he’s a master route running craftsman. Between Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan, and a formidable Green Bay defense, give me the Pack.

8:20 – Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams Under 46.5

Andy Dalton against a very good Rams defense? Maybe they score 17 points. Hopefully, Justin Fields doesn’t come in at halftime and wreck this pick. You could also take the 1st half under (23) to prevent that.  Or you could take the Bears team total under 19.5 points. Either way, I don’t expect the Bears to do much on offense and with it being Stafford’s first game in LA I expect a little bit of a slow start in his new offense.

8:15 – Monday Night Football

Las Vegas Raiders +4

The Raiders open up with Monday Night Football in their new venue in Las Vegas and I’m sure many Raiders fans will be taking the desert trip to cheer on their team. Under Gruden, the Raiders have started well only to fizzle out towards the end of the year. I expect another good start and will take the points.

Player Props (BetUS)

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen Over 2.5 TD passes (+155)

Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 TD passes (+125)

Running Backs

Najee Harris Over 22.5 Rec yards (-110)

Jonathan Taylor Over 1/2 Rushing TD’s (+105)

Jonathan Taylor Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Trey Sermon Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones Over 66.5 Rec yards (-115)

DeVonta Smith Over 3.5 receptions (EV)

DeVonta Smith Over 44.5 Rec yards (-115)

Calvin Ridley Over 86.5 Rec yards (-110)

Davante Adams Over 87.5 Rec Yards (-115)

 Deep Sleepers of the Week (Stage 3 REM)

In fantasy football you need to think ahead, playing chess not checkers. If you have any waste on your roster you can cut or have an IR spot you can utilize you need to take advantage of that. That could mean picking up a backup running back or wide receiver just in case of an injury or grabbing a player that is returning from the IR in a few weeks. It could also mean grabbing a player who is buried on the depth chart, forgotten about, who may be getting an opportunity in the upcoming week(s). Don’t get stale, think outside the box and stay ahead of your opponents and the industry.

Tylan Wallace, WR, Baltimore Ravens

“Sir Tylan” Wallace’s receiving style has been compared to former Carolina Panthers and Ravens great Steve Smith and I think that comparison fits well. Wallace plays aggressively, has good speed (4.4), and can also go up and get the ball. With Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman, and Miles Boykin all out for this game, Wallace will get a chance to show out playing alongside Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay, and James Proche. Wallace could lead this team in receiving. No doubt Wallace is out there on your wire, so if you can stash him, do it, if not have him on your radar after Week 1 and be ready to bid up to get him if he does indeed go off.

Chris Evans, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

All expectations are Joe Mixon getting a bell-cow workload for the Bengals and the most talked about backup is usually Samaje Perine, but there is arguably a more talented back on this roster than Perine in Chris Evans. Evans was drafted in the 6th round this year out of Michigan and runs a 4.4, at 5’11 and 215 pounds. Evans has breakaway speed, can break tackles, and is also a good receiving back. If I am a Mixon owner, this is the backup I am paying attention to. It’s quite possible we may see Evans have a role in Week 1.

All the best to everyone this weekend, enjoy the games. You can follow me @FantasySavvy on Twitter.

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