Welcome to The FF Faceoff’s weekly report, a first take at the biggest fantasy football takeaways from the weekend’s action. Each week I will provide an overall gut check from the week and nominate our risers, fallers, dynasty stashes, and more. I’ll be recapping the action from Thursday and Sunday this week in Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 1.
It is truly incredible to be back in football season. This week has been highly anticipated for many and marks the best time of year for millions of people. And we were rewarded with several incredible games out the gate. While we were rewarded with incredible football this weekend, there is plenty of noise out there, with everyone telling you which direction you should go. Here at The FF Faceoff, we want to cut through that noise and get to the point. Whether or not you correctly predicted a certain player’s performance doesn’t matter. What matters is whether you won or not. That doesn’t mean we aren’t going to do our best to predict what will happen on any given week, but we want you to win your leagues because we value winning.
With that, here is my biggest and most simple piece of advice after Week 1: Don’t panic.
Perfect Example: Ezekiel Elliott
Right now, you will see people left and right telling you that they were right about this player and that player, that you should get rid of that running back that lost you your week, and so on. Right now, that is all noise. We’ve had one week of football and that is simply not enough data to make good decisions with. Especially in a week where the Detroit Lions put up 33 points on the 49ers, the Houston Texans won, and Aaron Rodgers scored zero points. Football is a random sport and while we do our best to predict that randomness, we also plan for the most likely scenarios.
There are many fantasy managers who took drafted Ezekiel Elliott (5.9 points) in the first round who are looking longingly at their opponents who drafted Nick Chubb (22.1 points) or David Montgomery (18.8 points). If you drafted him and are currently winning your week, you did it in spite of Elliott, not because of him. But, if you haven’t seen this already, it’s worth remembering the importance of matchups, where the rubber meets the road in fantasy football. It may be tough considering many fantasy owners were worried about Elliott to begin with after last year, but don’t panic.
Tampa Bay had the number one rush defense in 2020, allowing only 80.6 yards per game. They did not however have even a top 10 pass defense last year. This basic analysis alone provides insight into a pathway to win against Tampa Bay. Pass the ball. Which Dallas did, and came away with 400 passing yards on the reigning Superbowl champions. This is a reminder of the overly obvious statement: football teams do not care about your fantasy score. They’re here to win.
As for Elliott, he played in 82% of the snaps on Thursday Night Football, per NextGenStats and he looked good when running the ball. To me, he was faster and springier in his few opportunities on Thursday night than most of last season. Now, over the next five weeks, he goes up against the Chargers, Eagles, Panthers, Giants, and the Patriots. The best 2020 rush defense of that crew is the Giants, who had the 10th best rush defense (although, I believe the Patriots are an outlier because they had so many players sit out last year). Given the talent we know is there with Elliott, if he keeps up that snap share, the opportunity will be there for him to pounce, and you’ll be thankful for sticking with him or taking advantage of someone else’s cold feet.
The conversation around Elliott is a microcosm of many of the conversations you’ll see this week. People will overreact to Week 1 trends and you have the opportunity to capitalize on that by either giving your team another week or two or by making trades with the people overreacting in your league. Fantasy football is both a weekly and a season-long game and those down performances are likely to balance out over the next several weeks.
With that said, we have to make *some* takeaways from week one, so let’s recap our risers, fallers, and dynasty stashes.
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Risers
Jameis Winston
(QB3, 29.62 points, 14-20, 148 yards, 5 TDs, 6 carries, 37 yards)
Much has been made about the return of Jameis Winston. Coming into the season, people were evenly divided, either loving his chances in New Orleans or thinking he was the same guy who threw 30 interceptions in one season in Tampa Bay. But after week one he is seemingly rebuilding his reputation.
There are two notable stats that were mentioned during the broadcast of this game. The first is that Winston threw for the second-most TDs on opening day as a New Orleans Saint, behind only Drew Brees himself. The second is that Winston had the fewest pass yards in a game where he threw five touchdowns. This is not to say that Winston is Brees. He still has a lot to prove to get to that level. But it does show that he has Drew Brees caliper play in his wheelhouse. He’s also the only quarterback ever to throw for less than 150 yards and throw for five touchdowns in one game.
That said, I think the limited pass yards are informative here. New Orleans dominated the run game, rushing for 171 yards as a team, out-performing their pass game. Winston capitalized on gameplay that allowed the Saints to go pass-heavy in the red zone. Only one of Winston’s passing touchdowns came from more than 10 yards out. This signals we should use caution when assessing Winston’s future because he is not going to throw five touchdowns every week. But I also think he isn’t held to under 200 pass yards every week. Because of this, I think Winston becomes a clear starting quarterback for fantasy managers, demonstrating his ability to manage the game, capitalize when it matters, and limit mistakes.
Jamaal Williams
(RB3, 25.0 points, 9 carries, 54 yards, 1 TD, 8 receptions, 56 yards)
The Detroit Lions came out of nowhere this week to put 33 points and 430 yards in a game that shouldn’t have even been close. Potentially more surprisingly is that D’Andre Swift was not the top fantasy running back, rather Jamaal Williams beat him out. Now let’s be honest, Swift finished as RB4, with 24.4 points, so we could really talk about both of these guys as risers, but people were already bought in on Swift (despite a certain phone call). Many thought this was Swift’s backfield, and I think it still is, but we may be seeing that this offense is better than we expected and can support two fantasy-relevant running backs. I’ll be watching this trend closely, but if Williams is sitting on your waivers, I’d absolutely consider taking a look.
Antonio Brown
(WR11, 23.7 points, 5 receptions, 121 yards, 1 TD)
It shouldn’t be too shocking that Antonio Brown is an incredible fantasy asset, but I think with the level of depth in Tampa Bay it’s easy to overlook Brown as the third-best wide receiver in that cohort. On Thursday night, Brown showed us that even if he’s competing with two elite wide receivers and Tom Brady’s favorite tight end for touches, he can still put up big points and have a huge impact on any given night. The thing that worries me about Brown is that there are so many mouths to feed in that Tampa Bay offense, that we may see one receiver popping off each week but never be able to predict which one. Still, I think Brown is worth being put in a Flex spot or as your WR3, especially given the tight relationship between him and Brady. Consider Brown a top 15-20 receiver for the rest of the year.
Corey Davis
(WR5, 26.7 points, 5 receptions, 97 yards, 2 TDs)
If you watched the final Jets preseason game, you might have seen this coming. Zach Wilson spent several plays in that game building the connection with Corey Davis. When I saw that, I knew Davis was going to be the clear WR1 in New York and that he should at least be in the Flex conversation. I did not expect him to go five for 97 and catch two touchdowns, but Davis made his mark in that NYJ receiver core. I expect Davis to come back down to earth a bit as the Jets face the Patriots and the Broncos over the next two weeks, but he will remain a matchup-dependent flex option and will continue to be a source of security for the rookie quarterback.
Fallers
The Green Bay Packers
- Aaron Rogers (QB32, 1.32 points, 15-28, 133 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INT)
- Aaron Jones (RB46, 4.2 points, 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 receptions, 13 yards)
- Davante Adams (WR48, 10.6 points, 5 receptions, 56 yards)
It is a rare occasion that the Packers do not score a touchdown. In 2020, the fewest points they were held to was 10 and it was by the Superbowl championship-winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This week, the New Orleans defense simply waxed the Packers, holding them to just three points, under 250 total yards and less than 50 rushing yards. While the poor performance from the Packers is worrisome, I put most of these players in the “don’t panic” category. The Saints have traditionally been a tough run defense, so it’s not surprising that Aaron Jones would struggle to get anything going. Davante Adams is still Davante Adams and is in many ways immune to poor quarterback play.
I don’t want to make too much out of this, but I do worry about Aaron Rodgers moving forward. I think the most likely scenario is that he bounces back over the next couple of weeks and this loss to the Saints will be a distant memory. That said, there has been plenty of drama in that locker room, with Rodgers even saying before this game that he thought he’d be playing in San Francisco this year. I worry about the morale of that locker room and what that means for Rodger’s chances this year. Again, I think this is unlikely to repeat, but this is a situation where if you have a Ryan Tannehill or a Kirk Cousins, I might bench Rogers for a week or two and feel out where this goes.
Justin Herbert
(QB24, 13.38 points, 31-47, 337 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 FUM)
Justin Herbert was in many ways the breakout quarterback of the 2020 season, propelling many fantasy managers to the playoffs. But this week was a different story. Herbert seemingly had the opposite of Jameis Winston’s game – plenty of yards, but few touchdowns. It is hard to tell what this means for Herbert’s 2021 prospects. On the one hand, Washington has a tough defense, so this may be all about the matchup. On the other, the jury is still out on whether Herbert simply had a fantastic 2020 debut or whether he is indeed an elite quarterback. My bet is that he is and that Washington’s defense is also the real deal. One more touchdown from Herbert, and we are stressing less about his prospects. This week moved Herbert down on the quarterback conversation, but we could easily see this change next week when he matches up against a Dallas defense that just got lit up by Tom Brady.
James Robinson
(RB34, 8.4 points, 5 carries, 25 yards, 3 receptions, 29 yards)
This one makes me nervous. In my experience, running backs are among the hardest positions to predict from season to season. There are so many variables that make or break a running back’s season, from the performance of the offensive line to weekly game scripts, and unexpected injuries to moving to running back committees. James Robinson was the definitive breakout running back of 2020, but eyebrows were raised when the Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne. This signaled to many that Robinson was not the workhorse back of the future, and this week fueled that fire, with Carlos Hyde getting more touches than Robinson. It is possible this may be situational, which Jacksonville in a negative game script where they needed to pass to keep up with Houston while also giving their rookie quarterback reps, but if I’m rostering Robinson I feel pretty nervous right now. If the touches come back to Robinson, he may be an early candidate to replace.
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Dynasty Stashes
Gabriel Davis
(WR45, 12.0 points, 2 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD)
The Bills struggled on Sunday, with Pittsburgh demonstrating how strong defense can overcome offensive weaknesses. Despite that, Gabriel Davis continued to demonstrate that he is an underrated value. Davis was the third-most targeted receiver for the Bills in 2020 behind Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. While there is plenty of competition for touches in this offense, the Bills have demonstrated they are a pass-heavy offense, with 51 pass attempts on Sunday. While Davis only received five targets, he was effective when his name was called, averaging 20 yards per reception, and scoring a touchdown. There is too much competition for targets in this receiving core for Davis to be a clear starter, but this 22-year-old has the potential to be a breakout in 2022 and is learning from two elite receivers in Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders.
Kenneth Gainwell
(RB20, 12.3 points, 9 carries, 37 yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 6 yards)
I am in on Kenneth Gainwell. In my opinion, the 5th round draft pick out of Memphis is one of the biggest sleepers out of this draft class. I don’t see Gainwell finishing as a top-30 running back this season, but he has the explosiveness and the efficiency to make a splash in 2022 and beyond. Gainwell performed in the preseason, coming away with 67 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries and 65 yards on 9 receptions, averaging 5.6 YPC and 7.2 yards per reception. And on Sunday, Gainwell was the second option, ahead of veteran Boston Scott. I expect him to continue to have limited work (assuming Miles Sanders is healthy) but to become a useful asset in future seasons.
Monday Night Preview
Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders
Tonight the Ravens and the Raiders will cap off the first week of the year. I’ll be watching for two things. First, and likely the most obvious thing, is how the Ravens cope with their running back injuries. There’s been plenty of speculation as to who will be the main running back in that offense. Will we just see more Lamar Jackson? Does Latavius Murray come out as their number one? Or is Ty’Son Williams the real deal? After tonight, those questions should be answered.
Second, I’m interested to see how the Raiders approach their offense. They have three running backs that historically have seen a lot of goal-line work in Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, and Peyton Barber. Last season, Jacobs and Drake led the league in goal-to-go carries. Does Las Vegas build on that advantage and just pound it out or do they take a more balanced approach led by Derek Carr?
Regardless, I’m excited for the first Monday Night Football game of the year and hope you go to bed tonight with a victory.
