NFL Best Bets: Week 2
Week 1 was as Charles Barkley would say, “Turrible!” We finished 2-7 in picks and 3-7 in player props. However, it’s a long season and it’s not how you start but how you finish. With the benefit of actual regular season play and reviewing all the Week 1 games, we expect to have a nice bounceback in Week 2. Back or fade me at your own risk. Let’s get to it with Best Bets: Week 2.
1:00 PM Slate
Patriots @ Jets Over 43
Taking an over with a rookie quarterback going against Bill Belichick sounds ill-advised, but there are few reasons why I like this over. In Zach Wilson, Belichick will be facing arguably the best quarterback he’s ever faced since he’s been in New England. I love Zach Wilson, I fully believe the Jets have their Franchise quarterback and am pretty much convinced Wilson is going to be great in the NFL. Despite facing a ton of pressure against Carolina last week, Wilson handled it all well and made some impressive throws and plays. Belichick will definitely confuse the rookie, but Wilson has the playmaking ability and arm talent to overcome some of these traps. I think the Patriots will win this game and probably be leading for most of it, so I expect Wilson to put up some garbage time points to help put this one over. Secondly, the Jets defense is not good and they are going to have a tough time getting pressure on a well-protected Mac Jones. Jones continued his strong preseason play with a nice NFL debut in Week 1 and that should only continue that against the Jets. I think Jones is throwing at least three touchdowns. Two impressive Rookie quarterbacks and a bad defense on one side of the ball, makes me believe that is enough to push this over the low-end total of 43.
Bengals +1.5
Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense are going to put up points all season long. Burrow, Between Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon, there’s impressive talent throughout this offense. Burrow looked excellent last week, as did Mixon and Chase. Chsae quieted his doubters by going over 100 yards with a touchdown in his career debut. Higgins is going to have a big season also. On the other side, Matt Nagy is channeling his inner Lovie Smith sticking with Andy Dalton for another week, much like Smith did when he stuck with Rex Grossman even though it was evident Grossman stunk. Only this time the Bears are not who we thought they were, as they are a shell of their former self. When the Bengals win Sunday, we might expect Matt Nagy to come out and say, we are 0-2 Andy is our Quarterback. For the sake of Bears fans, hopefully, that is not the case.
Rams -3.5, Rams/Colts Under 48
Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams came out firing last Sunday night in their opener against the Bears, winning 34-14. They played like a potential Super Bowl contender with Stafford looking crisp, playing efficient, and connecting with his new favorite target Cooper Kupp. The Colts lost at home to Seattle 28-16, with Carson Wentz doing some good things, playing within the confines of his new offense, but at the same time, we saw a lot of the usual Wentz. The matchup gets tougher for the Colts offense this week against one of the best defenses in the league. I expect Stafford and company to put up around 27 points with the Colts failing to hit 20 once again. Give me the Rams and the under on the inflated 48 number.
Eagles +3 (Bonus on the Moneyline)
The Eagles were one of our winning picks last week and I even advised taking them on the moneyline against the Falcons. I do the same again, only this time Philly is home, although their opponent is more formidable. I love what I saw out of the Eagles offensive and defensive lines last week. Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith, and even Jalen Reagor all look like they are in for successful seasons. Not to mention Miles Sanders, who impressed me the most out of everyone in that offense. He looked and played great. I see Jimmy Garoppolo struggling some in this game and think Jalen Hurts will outplay him. The wrong team is favored here, as the Eagles and head coach Nick Sirianni still are being underrated by linemakers at this point.
Saints -3.5
The Saints home opener was shifted to Jacksonville last week, but that did not stop them from handing Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay a good ol’ ass whoopin. Jameis Winston wasn’t asked to do too much, throwing for less than 200 yards, but he had five touchdown passes as the Saints had a ton of possessions due to the Packers doing absolutely nothing on offense. The biggest takeaway was the Saints “White on Miami Vice” man-to-man pass defense, locking down the Packers wide receivers. Sam Darnold had a solid day against a weak Jets defense last week, but this is going to be a big test against a Saints defense that just shut down Rodgers. I don’t think Darnold is up for the challenge and believe he will struggle, just as Rodgers did. The Saints have a few key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but I think they will be fine regardless.
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Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
Broncos -6
Everyone thought the Texans were going to be the worst team in the league this year, but after the Texans beat up on the Jaguars, they might now be the front runners. Not only did their defense make Tyrod Taylor look like Russell Wilson, but Trevor Lawrence‘s debut was not good, outside of a few nice throws. He threw three awful interceptions, missed a bunch of throws, and had a tough time escaping pressure. The Broncos defense is an excellent fantasy play this week as they should get a bunch of sacks and turnovers. Teddy Bridgewater also played well in his first game as a Bronco and now gets a fantastic matchup. The Broncos should take the lead early here and never look back as the Jaguars have a lot to correct before they get any sort of respect.
4:05 PM Slate
Buccaneers -12.5
The Falcons are coming off a poor home opener against the Eagles losing 32-6. The Falcons got beat on both sides of the line last week and that looks likely to happen again. Matt Ryan had little time to throw and now plays even better defense in Tampa Bay. Tom Brady has been tanning on Florida beaches with the extra time off since the league opener and is now ready to go out and destroy this Atlanta defense. A lot of points to cover, but this is a big mismatch that could get ugly quick.
Sunday Night 8:30 PM
Chiefs -3.5, Over 54
Lamar Jackson is a ridiculous athlete and playmaker, but he still has deficiencies in his passing game, most notably throwing on the boundaries. That was the reason the Ravens drafted both Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace in the NFL Draft, two wide receivers who play on the boundary and can go up and get the ball. The problem is Bateman is still on the injured reserve and Wallace didn’t play a snap last week. Sammy Watkins did look good and Marquise Brown is only getting better, but until Jackson shows he can throw the ball accurately on the boundaries the Ravens passing game is going to lack consistency. Bateman and Wallace will certainly help when their time comes, but that isn’t now. The Ravens defense also showed a lot of holes on Monday night against the Raiders allowing 33 points in their overtime loss. Now Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes come to town and should have at least the same amount of success, although we should expect more. Both these teams played in games that hit the 60+ points mark last week, so I think we should see the 54 total hit here as the Chiefs defense still isn’t great either.
Monday Night 8:15 PM
Packers -11.5
Green Bay had a disastrous start against New Orleans in their opener, and there were questions about Rodgers’ motivation after the loss. As I mentioned previously, the Saints defense was locking down these Packers wide receivers and that was the main reason the Packers looked so bad. Now Rodgers and the Packers return to their shire in Lambeau Field against the Lions in a bounce-back spot. Some may be inclined to ride with the Lions as they just played close with the 49ers, but they were getting blown out for much of that game before they got within eight points at the end. Expect the Packers to be ready to rock Monday, play solid on both sides of the ball and cover the 11.5. Expect some big games out of Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones as the Packers get back on track.
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Player Props (BetUS)
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+140)
Jimmy Garoppolo Under 253.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 TD passes (EV)
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 TD Passes (-115)
Mac Jones Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Zach Wilson Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Zach Wilson Over 1.5 TD Passes (+130)
Teddy Bridgewater Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-115)
[pickup_prop id=”11892″]
Running Backs
Miles Sanders Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Melvin Gordon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Joe Mixon Over 66.5 Rushing yards
Jonathan Taylor Over 2.5 Receptions (+110)
Jonathan Taylor Over 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Nyheim Himes Over 3.5 receptions (EV)
Wide Receivers
Tee Higgins Over 5.5 receptions (+115)
Tee Higgins Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Amari Cooper Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Mike Williams over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Jalen Guyton over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 35.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-120)
DeVonta Smith Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Jalen Reagor Over 3.5 receptions (+130)
Jalen Reagor Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Cooper Kupp Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Jamarr Chase Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bryan Edwards Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet Over 3.5 Receptions (+105)
Dallas Goedert Over 3.5 Receptions (-105)
Sleepers of the Week
In fantasy football you need to think ahead, playing chess not checkers. If you have any waste on your roster you can cut or have an IR spot you can utilize you need to take advantage of that. That could mean picking up a backup running back or wide receiver just in case of an injury or grabbing a player that is returning from the IR in a few weeks. It could also mean grabbing a player who is buried on the depth chart, forgotten about, who may be getting an opportunity in the upcoming week(s). Don’t get stale, think outside the box and stay ahead of your opponents and the industry.
Jeff Wilson, 49ers, RB
The 49ers announced that Jeff Wilson is working ahead of his original timeline and could be ready to return when he’s first eligible in week seven. If you have an IR spot or an available spot on your bench, go ahead and add him as he will most definitely have a significant role when he returns.
DeeJay Dallas, Seahawks, RB
Rashaad Penny is out this week and it’s possible he could miss multiple weeks so playing behind Chris Carson it will be DeeJay Dallas, Alex Collins, and Travis Homer. Chris Carson also has his own issues of staying healthy. Dallas is the Seahawks best receiving back and could be a factor in this offense the rest of the year.
Pharaoh Brown, Texans, TE
Brown is a journeyman tight end who has battled injuries through his career, but he now has a golden opportunity playing in Houston. He was the Texans second-leading receiver with four catches for 67 yards and also tied for second in targets with five. Brown displayed his athleticism with an impressive one-handed catch. There is some potential here for a position that lacks depth.
Other Notable Sleepers
Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins, RB
Jaret Patterson, Redskins, RB
Jerrick Mckinnon, Chiefs, RB
Tyler Johnson, Bucs, WR
Deonte Harris, Saints, WR
Jalen Guyton, Chargers, WR
Preston Williams, Dolphins, WR
Mike Strachan, Colts, WR
Amari Rodgers, Packers, WR
Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos, TE
David Njoku, Browns, TE
Ian Thomas, Panthers, TE
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