Welcome to The FF Faceoff’s weekly recap, a first take at the biggest fantasy football takeaways from the weekend’s action. Each week we will provide an overall gut check from the week and nominate our risers, fallers, dynasty stashes, and more. Check it all out here in Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 2.
Week 2 served us well with intense action throughout Sunday, particularly starting with the late afternoon games. We also got our first 40+ point game of the season, with Derrick Henry putting up 47.7 points in a game where he had 35 carries and six receptions, 232 scrimmage yards, and three touchdowns. Absolute madness. Now that we’re two weeks in, we can start assessing trends more effectively. My goal in these articles is to pick players that are likely to sustain their recent performances or notable players to consider selling high or buying low on. There were certainly be players that pop off that won’t be included in this article because one week as a top 10 player won’t win your fantasy league. We’re looking for sustained performance here.
I’ve also added two segments this week. First is the “Watch List” which includes players I want to monitor before encouraging anyone to pick them up. These are players that may be good splashes in 2022 or even later this season but are not ready to be considered for a dynasty stash. The second is a breakdown of “Notable Targets.” These aren’t just the players with the most targets, but players whose target shares speak to their potential fantasy value, good or bad. Want to see a bigger breakdown of target and snap share? Check out our weekly targets and touches count breakdown here.
The last thing I want to discuss before getting into our risers and fallers is something all fantasy managers deal with, but none of us want to. Injuries. This week saw numerous notable injuries that will certainly shake up the league and make reading tomorrow’s waiver wire column a non-negotiable. Those most relevant to fantasy managers include Jarvis Landry, Darrell Henderson, Trey Sermon, Elijah Mitchell, Ja’Mycal Hasty, Diontae Johnson, Dalvin Cook, and Laviska Shenault. We also saw multiple quarterbacks in Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, and Carson Wentz get banged up. Some of these players returned to the game, but nonetheless need to be monitored as injury reports come out through the week. Hopefully many see week three returns or only have short absences, not just for the sake of our fantasy teams, but also for the players themselves.
With that, we’ll turn to this week’s risers, fallers, dynasty stashes, and more.
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
Risers
Cordarrelle Patterson
(RB3, 23.9 points, 7 carries, 11 yards, 1 TD, 5 receptions, 58 yards, 1 TD)
The Falcons overall have a long way to go to be a playoff contender, but one of their clear strengths in the first two weeks is their running backs. Atlanta rushed for 110 yards in the first half during their Week 1 matchup against Philadelphia and they continued utilizing their backs against Tampa Bay, getting them more involved in the passing game. Cordarrelle Patterson was the beneficiary this week, averaging 11.6 yards per reception, compared to 3.6 for Mike Davis. This bodes well for Patterson, who enters a Week 3 matchup against the Giants, who just gave up a big game to J.D. McKissic, largely through the passing game.
Courtland Sutton
(WR4, 24.9 points, 9 receptions, 159 yards)
This is what we’ve been waiting for with Courtland Sutton. After a quiet Week 1, many fantasy managers were left wondering if Sutton could live up to the hype. This week showed Sutton’s potential when given the opportunity. He led the Broncos in targets, coming home with 12 targets and a massive 35% target share. Certainly, some of this has to do with the absence of Jerry Jeudy, but nonetheless, it’s encouraging to see Sutton getting opportunities. What’s exciting to me is that this performance came in a game where Sutton was held scoreless. That signals a high ceiling for Sutton if those opportunities remain. His target share moving forward is something to monitor. Sutton also saw a whopping 258 air yards, which is more than any player saw in one game in 2020.
Rondale Moore
(WR6, 24.4 points, 7 receptions, 114 yards, 1 TD)
With Sunday’s performance, Rondale Moore chalked up the best rookie fantasy performance of the season. What’s also notable is Moore led the Cardinals in targets, with eight and a 24% target share. As a comparison, Justin Jefferson only had three targets with a 13% target share in his second career NFL game. That’s not to say Moore is this year’s Jefferson (I try to avoid cherry-picking stats), but it is a signal that Moore is fitting into this offense quickly and has the trust of Kyler Murray. That’s a good sign for people who invested early in Moore.
Derek Carr
(QB6, 24.18 points, 28-37, 383 yards, 2 TDs, 4 carries, 9 yards)
This is potentially the most shocking riser on this list. Derek Carr currently leads the NFL in passing yards. He has two consecutive top 10 finishes, putting him in a clear QB1 position. He’s led the Raiders to two big wins over some tough teams in the Ravens and Steelers. Carr’s biggest hamper is the fact that he is not a mobile quarterback, which limits his upside. But he’s demonstrating consistency and if you waited late for a quarterback and it’s not panning out, Carr is proving to be a solid stopgap measure. Or if you’re in a Superflex or 2QB league, Carr is a clear starter. And currently, Carr is rostered in less than 20% of ESPN leagues. That number should go up.
Fallers
Jameis Winston
(QB24, 8.34 points, 11-22, 111 yards, 2 INTs, 3 carries, 19 yards, 1 TD)
One week after making the Green Bay Packers look foolish, the Carolina Packers did the same to New Orleans, holding the Saints to just seven points a week after they put up 38. In many ways, Winston was set up in Week 1 to capitalize on a strong run game, scoring five touchdowns with less than 200 pass yards. Well, one of those trends remained this week. Without the touchdown equity, Winston falls significantly down the order and continues a worrisome trend. We don’t often talk about touchdown-dependent quarterbacks, but Winston is starting to become one. That’s nothing against Winston and likely more about the Saints scheme, but it pushes me to fade Winston until further notice. We may come to realize that the Panthers defense is simply the real deal, but I’m holding on to Winston until he becomes less volatile.
Antonio Gibson
(RB29, 9.3 points, 13 carries, 69 yards, 2 receptions, 14 yards)
Much was made of Antonio Gibson coming into 2021, especially when Kyle Allen hinted at Gibson taking on a Christian McCaffrey-like role for the Washington Football Team. If that were the case, Taylor Heinicke seems to have missed that memo. Gibson was RB25 in Week 1 and finished RB29 this week. While he outpaced McKissic in targets during Week 1, he came away with only two targets against the Giants, with McKissic getting six. What was more worrisome was how Gibson was frequently on the sidelines during high-stakes moments, signaling that when the game is on the line, Gibson may not be Washington’s primary playmaker. I expect this trend to regress upwards, but will be watching closely what role Gibson plays moving forward. With that said, this may be a good buy low time on Gibson.
A.J. Brown
(WR58, 7.3 points, 3 receptions, 43 yards)
The Titans narrowly pulled out the victory on Sunday in a game many expected to be a shootout. And it was, but not in the way most people think of, with the Titans relying on Derrick Henry to keep them in the game to pull out the victory. This seemed like the week for Julio Jones and A.J. Brown to breakout, but Brown was held to only three receptions on nine targets. That’s what concerns me most about Brown’s performance. He currently has seven receptions on 17 targets. Something isn’t working with his connection to Tannehill, causing Brown to drop outside the top 50 of wide receivers, despite a 23% target share in Week 2. To be fair, he had a drop on a big play, which didn’t help his numbers. However, I think the opportunity remains and Brown is poised to bounce back. Now would be a good buy low opportunity for the Titans’ primary deep threat.
Brandon Aiyuk
(WR101, 1.6 points, 1 reception, 6 yards)
With a similar performance as in Week 1, Aiyuk comes away with just one reception for six yards, reminding fantasy players that he’s in a “prove it” position. Aiyuk is still coming back from injury, and with the 49ers’ significant injury trouble over the past two seasons, they are surely looking to ease him in and feel confident he’s ready to go before giving him a full workload. Aiyuk is not at the point where he’s droppable but should continue to be monitored over the next several weeks.
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Dynasty Stashes
K.J. Osborn
(WR14, 20.1 points, 5 receptions, 91 yards, 1 TD)
Can you guess who led the Vikings’ receivers in fantasy points on Sunday? Look no further than K.J. Osborn. Osborn had an efficient outing, catching five of his six targets and averaging 18 yards per catch. Despite this performance, he was still out-targeted by Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, but Osborn’s 19% target share was a promising sign. I’m not convinced the Vikings can sustain three top-tier receivers, so Osborn remains a stash, but time could prove otherwise.
Elijah Moore
(WR53, 8.7 points, 4 receptions, 47 yards)
The New York Jets struggled against the Patriots, with Zach Wilson throwing four interceptions and the Jets being held without a touchdown. The Patriots successfully took Wilson’s favorite target, Corey Davis, out of the game and silenced Jets fans. Despite that, Elijah Moore caught four passes on eight targets and a 24% target share. This was encouraging after Week 1, where Moore has several drops and just one reception. The Jets offense still has a long way to go and likely won’t sustain two fantasy-relevant receivers in 2021, but Moore showed signs of progress that bode well as this team improves.
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Watch List
Demetric Felton
(RB18, 13.1 points, 2 receptions, 51 yards, 1 TD)
This addition to the Fantasy Faceoff Recap was inspired by Demetric Felton. I watched him make one big play on the Houston Texans, where he was decisive and broke several tackles, which made me want to follow his progress with the Cleveland Browns. We likely won’t see much out of the 6th round pick from UCLA, but I’ll be touching base to assess his efficiency throughout the season.
Taylor Heinicke
(QB11, 20.04 points, 34-46, 336 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 4 carries, 6 yards)
With Ryan Fitzpatrick out for several games, Taylor Heinicke steps in as the replacement for Washington. If you don’t remember Heinicke, he first impressed in last season’s playoff matchup against Tampa Bay, nearly leading WFT to victory over the would-be Superbowl champions. Heinicke has looked poised when on the field and it someone to monitor as a low-end QB1. He may never be a true dynasty investment since he spends most of his time as a backup, but in redraft leagues, he is worth adding to the watch list.
Notable Targets
Terry McLaurin, 14 Targets: McLaurin led the league in targets this week and while this may change as Heinicke gets more comfortable, it should encourage teams rostering McLaurin and cast aside any future start/sit doubts.
Derrick Henry, 6 Targets: Tying for the third-most targets amongst running backs, Henry showed that he is more than just a runner but can make an impact in the passing game. This is a good sign for his sustained fantasy impact, as Henry often gets a slight fade due to his lack of receptions.
Austin Ekeler, 9 Targets: This is what we’ve been waiting for and expecting from Austin Ekeler. His nine targets led all running backs and propelled him to RB5 in a game where he didn’t see the endzone.
George Kittle, 4 Targets: We haven’t seen much of George Kittle so far, with him having only nine targets this season, and both weeks has been outside of the top 10 in targets amongst tight ends. This could be San Francisco managing his workload or it could be a scheme difference since 2019, but is nonetheless a cause for concern for a player who has been part of the consensus top three for the past several years.
Monday Night Preview
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
After the Packers were left without a touchdown in Week 1, I’m expecting a bounce-back performance for Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay crew. If that happens, I’ll be looking to identify the WR2 in this group and watching the snap share of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. In recent years, the Packers’ receiving core has been mostly Davante Adams, with a different candidate filing in as their WR2 here and there. There’s no reason to believe that trend will change, but it’s always something to monitor. And with Jones and Dillon, I expect Jones to continue to be the primary running back, but Dillon has talent, so it will be interesting to track his utilization.
For the Lions, it’s all about their backfield. Last week, Detroit supported two top-five running backs in D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. Much of that was due to passing game usage when they were down big, but they’re expected to be down big again. Plus, we have a revenge game alert, with Williams facing off his former teammates and he had something to say about it. Check out this video from Williams if you haven’t already. You won’t regret it.
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