Calvin Ridley 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Football Outlook

Guess who’s back? After a year and a half break from the field, Calvin Ridley is making his much-awaited return; this time, it’s with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Ridley took a hiatus halfway through the 2021 season due to personal issues. As if things couldn’t get any worse, he sat out the entirety of 2022 due to suspension. However, we all now know that Ridley is now back in the game, revitalized, and raring to go.

In 2020, his last full season with the Falcons, Ridley finished the year as WR5 in PPR, while coming in at WR7 in median points per game. Additionally, he was one of the most consistent receivers that year coming in at WR5 with a Consistency Score of 6.00. This would make him WR7 this past season, just behind CeeDee Lamb (6.02).

In this season he tallied up 90 catches on 143 targets for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns. This remarkable total of 280.5 fantasy points would have made him WR7 this past season. That would’ve placed him just behind Lamb yet again (301.6 points) and A.J. Brown (297.6 points). I think it’s important to note that he played the majority of his 15 games with a broken foot.

Fantasy Football Outlook for 2023

We’ve covered his past sure, but does this affect his future prospects? I’ll admit, Ridley is like a high-stakes gamble in that he offers high-yield returns or potential downfall. I think he could make a strong comeback and rank among the top-12 fantasy wide receivers. Or, he might not last in the league for more than two years. Overall, it’s hard for me to picture him just being “average” upon his return.

Furthermore, this makes evaluating Ridley a real challenge. Currently, Ridley stands as the WR17 and 33rd overall player in our own 2023 fantasy football rankings. This ranking reflects more upon the timidness to dip back into this player too quickly than the immense upside that can unfold in Duvall this fall.

For fantasy football, previous performance can very much be indicative of future success. When it comes to wide receivers, the metrics that appear to hold the most weight are targets, air yards, and average depth of target (ADoT). Where does Ridley stack up in these categories? Well, he has a per-game average of 7.76 targets, 97.5 air yards, and an ADoT of 12.3 yards over his career.

Additionally, last fall, the Jaguars made a bold move by trading for Ridley while he was under suspension. A move that has proven wise as Ridley has taken the crown of Jacksonville’s top wide receiver. While he will face stiff competition for targets with all three players returning for 2023, I’m convinced that Doug Pederson has a well-thought-out strategy to smoothly reintegrate this former first-round pick and help him regain his peak performance.

When I look at this situation from a bird’s eye view, I see a strikingly similar situation to the one we had in 2020 with the Buffalo Bills. In the offseason that year, they acquired disgruntled star Stefon Diggs to bolster the supporting cast of their own third-year star, Josh Allen. Now, am I saying that Ridley will waltz into a 300+ point year? No, I’m not. What I am saying, is that I would not be surprised if we saw something eerily similar.

What we have here is one of the few chances to catch lightning in a bottle outside of the first two rounds of our drafts. In my opinion, the question isn’t whether or not he’ll shine, but how brilliantly.

Dynasty Outlook

For many of the same reasons listed above, I believe that Ridley is a welcome addition to any dynasty fantasy football team. Both he and Lawrence are set to ascend here. I do think this may be the last chance to buy Lawrence before he becomes virtually untouchable.

As for Ridley, he should remain productive for the next few years. He is 28 and coming into his 5th year as a pro. In my opinion, he is a fine hold if you have him. However, if you want to sell a share of Ridley, I’d want a future first at the bare minimum.

If you are looking to compete, I would look to tier up from a promising but less productive player and a rookie pick. On the other hand, you could also tier down in certain spots, going from, say, Garrett Wilson to Ridley and an additional starter for your squad.

Ultimately, if you’ve got him or you’re thinking about getting him, the key is to grasp the risks and figure out if you’re cool with that. If you are, then go ahead and take a chance on snagging an underrated WR1.

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