Carolina Trades Up to 1st Overall Pick – Fantasy Outlook
As a true christening into the NFL Draft season, the Chicago Bears have officially traded the first overall pick to the Carolina Panthers. It has been well known that the Bears have been aggressively shopping the pick for days now. Overall, this was a huge haul for the Bears, but that’s expected if you want to trade for the first overall pick.
Additionally, recent reports indicated that he had been talking with a multitude of teams. All of which general manager of the Bears Ryan Poles stated are “…Not afraid of what the floor of what you’re asking for is”. Additionally, a high floor is what his organization received. I will get into the implications for fantasy football, but first I will break down the compensation involved.
Trade Compensation
The Panthers are sending veteran wide receiver DJ Moore, their 2023 1st Round pick (9), their 2023 2nd Round pick (61), a 1st Round pick in 2024, and their 2025 2nd Round pick. Presumably, Chicago will be taking on a bulk of Moore’s remaining contract, as they have more than enough cap space to do so.
Why Make the Trade?
Chicago was at a crossroads where they believed they had their franchise quarterback in the building. However, they also had the draft capital to replace him. Carolina, led by their new head coach Frank Reich, had no reliable option to speak of. At pick 9 they likely would not have been able to choose their quarterback of the future, if one even fell to them at all.
This move signifies that their scouting department and front office have seen enough. In this case, I’m all but certain they have their quarterback of the future. Knowing the taller players Reich has coached over the years, I would imagine that the decision will come down to two prospects. They are Anthony Richardson and CJ Stroud, although a dark horse candidate might take the form of Will Levis.
What Does This Mean for Fantasy Football?
Justin Fields is now cemented at the forefront of the 2023 season for the Bears. Not only that, but he now has the franchise by the reigns and a new alpha wide receiver to throw to. We should expect more passing volume and efficiency for the ninth-most consistent quarterback in 2022 per our Consistency Score metric.
As for Moore, expect him to command fewer targets than in years past. However, I do not think that his value should be in free fall. Such a move by the Bears suggests that they want to pass the ball more effectively and give Fields the best possible tools to accomplish that with.
An unheralded winner for this trade is Carolina wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. Last year, he had a strong showing in the second half of the NFL season. However, I do suspect the team to bring in more competition to this position room. That being said, Marshall is the WR1 for the team as of today, but don’t be surprised if they take a top wide receiver in the NFL Draft.
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