Not too long ago, the trend in fantasy football was to sit tight and wait on drafting a quarterback. You could fill up the rest of your roster before adding the final piece to your starting squad. Hell, you could get a league winner in round 10 or beyond.

That being said, the fantasy football community is well aware of the Travis Kelce advantage at the tight end position. If you pay up and draft Kelce, you’re set. If you don’t, you are looking long and hard for anyone to contribute. It’s time to start looking at the quarterback position in a similar light. 

In the last few years, we’ve seen the climb in ADP (average draft position) for a select few quarterbacks in fantasy football drafts. Patrick Mahomes was the exception and can be taken early. Then came Josh Allen. Everyone else could sit tight and wait for a few more rounds. Furthermore, it might be time to consider paying up for a long-term quarterback in your dynasty fantasy football leagues. Well, it’s 2023 and things are changing once again in fantasy football whether you’ve caught on yet or not. 

2022 Top 10 Quarterbacks

Looking back at the 2022 fantasy football season, there was one thing that stuck out in a big way. That was the lack of quarterbacks who could win a week for your team.

1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Josh Allen
3. Jalen Hurts
4. Joe Burrow
5. Geno Smith
6. Justin Fields
7. Trevor Lawrence
8. Kirk Cousins
9. Daniel Jones
10. Jared Goff

When you’re drafting a top-10 player at a position, you should feel comfortable playing them all year long without exceptions. Look at the list above. Could you tell me you felt good playing guys like Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, or Daniel Jones on any given week? You couldn’t. More than likely, you streamed these quarterbacks depending on their weekly matchup. 

Furthermore, some notable names are missing from the top 10. Fantasy players thought that Justin Herbert was going to take the leap. Lamar Jackson was supposed to run his way into the top ten easily. Unfortunately, he wasn’t very good after Week 3 and ended up injured on the sideline to end the year. Tom Brady was QB3 in 2021 and could have easily been there again in 2022. Additionally, he had more pass attempts and pass completions than anyone else in the NFL and still didn’t get there.

According to some, Russell Wilson was a late-rounder with a ton of potential. Derek Carr should ball out with Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow. This could go on and on when trying to make the case for a quarterback. Overall, the numbers show that a reliable fantasy quarterback was hard to come by this past season. 

Quarterbacks 1-5

Let’s start by comparing the QB1 through QB5 from the 2022 NFL season. Patrick Mahomes versus Geno Smith. 

Right off the bat, there are pretty big differences in a number of areas. Mahomes had a Consistency Score of 4 points better than Smith. When it comes to fantasy quarterbacks, consistency is a nice thing to have, especially when the quarterback has a much higher floor, to begin with. If you’re new to our Consistency Score metric, you can learn all about it here. 

All in all, Mahomes averaged 7 more fantasy points per game than Smith. His ceiling was over 3 points more and Mahomes’ worst game is still 1 point better than Smith’s. Mahomes could score 17 points (his lowest of the season) and still find a way to help win a week if things go right. That being said, if you only get 6 points out of your fantasy quarterback, you’re in a big hole that you have to dig out of.  

Keep in mind, Mahomes played every game this year. Allen missed a game and Hurts missed two out of his last three. Mahomes could have ended up QB3 overall and we would be comparing the third and fifth-best quarterback in fantasy football. That being said, Smith had a really good year last season. That’s not just good, but he was consistently good. Averaging 15-20 points most weeks. Can you win games with a guy like Smith? Sure. Can you win your league with him? It would take a hot streak at the right time or having the rest of your team pick up the slack.

Streaming Quarterbacks

When you draft a quarterback for the year, you do so hoping you can play them all year. You don’t want to have to worry about who they’re matched up against week after week. If you had a guy like Smith, Jones, Goff, and Cousins, there was a good chance you were looking at who they were playing each week. Furthermore, you were likely trying to determine if there was another quarterback on the waiver wire or your bench that had a better matchup.

Is Cousins playing on the road at 4 PM? Historically speaking, we don’t like that. Is Jones facing the turnover-hungry Eagles? You might want to look elsewhere this week. Smith vs the 49ers defense twice a year? No thanks. All in all, there was no way you felt comfortable playing those quarterbacks week in and week out. 

Justin Fields

The one outlier on the list is Justin Fields. The beginning of 2022 started slow for him, but after Week 7, he went on a tear. He finished the last six of nine games he played with over 20 points per game. He was QB6 while only playing 15 games and having no one to throw the ball to outside of Cole Kmet. With another year under his belt and what should be an improved team around him. Needless to say, I am high in Fields for the 2023 fantasy season and you should be as well. 

For the chart below, I took the averages for five different stats. This includes overall fantasy points, average fantasy points per game, passing yards, rushing yards, and touchdowns. 

 

Immediately, you see the amount of green at the top and the amount of the red at the bottom. The top four quarterbacks were above average on at least four out of the five metrics, and nobody outside of the top five hit on more than one of the five metrics. 

The next chart above showcases the floor and ceiling for these quarterbacks. Once again, a whole lot of green at the top and a whole lot of red at the bottom. The main things to look at here are the fantasy floor and the top five finishes.  When the top four guys have a bad week, they still put up points. However, the bottom half of the list bottoms out. Not surprisingly, Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts spent over half the NFL season in the top five.

Fantasy Football Consistency Score

Another part of looking deeper into the Consistency Score is weekly performances. The top three quarterbacks (Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen) finished inside the top-12 over 75% of the time. Needless to say, there is a massive advantage to having a consistent quarterback in your fantasy football leagues.

For one, you don’t have to stream every week. What if you play a quarterback with a better matchup and the guy with the worst matchup ends up going off on your bench? You don’t have to worry about that when you get one of the top quarterbacks. You play them, they get the job done, and you move on.

Can guys like Smith, Cousins, and Jones give you a good week? Absolutely. Conversely, can you depend on them weekly? Can you depend on them to win you a week when let’s say the rest of your team doesn’t do its job? Probably not. Overall, the ceiling is just too low. 

You have to bank on an outlier outcome at the right time for it to work. This is where the advantage at quarterback comes in. The one place where it’s easiest to make up points? The quarterback position. What is the one position where it is easiest to win you a week? Quarterback. Furthermore, it’s much easier for a quarterback to score 30+ points than any other position simply because of the opportunity. When a running back or wide receiver goes off, things like the game script, volume, and touchdown opportunities have to go their way. A quarterback can get those points from a career day or from trying to make a comeback from behind.

2023 Fantasy Football Draft Tips

There’s a lot that goes into fantasy football. Obviously, there are a lot of things you can’t control such as health, volume, game script, and so on. What is in your control? How you draft your fantasy football teams. 

I can almost guarantee that in one of your drafts, somebody is going to grab a quarterback a little earlier than expected. When that happens, some league-mates will think it’s not smart. They’ll assume that person is not getting the value out of where he’s grabbing his quarterback in the draft. Do you know what happens next? The next quarterback goes off the board. Then it’s your turn. 

Are you going to continue the trend of picking earlier than you planned, or do you think you can wait until later? You’ve seen the stats above and see what is waiting for you the later you draft your quarterback in 2023. There was a time not too long ago when I would’ve said to wait. Now? It’s time to pull the trigger. All this being said, don’t be too afraid to draft a quarterback a bit earlier as we look ahead at the 2023 fantasy football season. 

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2023 Dynasty Rookie Content:

• ADP (1QB)
• ADP (SF/2QB)
• Rankings
• 2023 Class Preview
• Top 10 Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Way Too Early Mock Draft

Check out the latest podcast episode of The FF Faceoff here!

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